AAON DCF Model
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 469.3 8.2% | 514.6 9.6% | 534.5 3.9% | 888.8 66.3% | 1,168.5 31.5% | 1,223.1 4.7% | 1,528.8 25.0% | 1,724.4 12.8% | 1,984.0 15.1% | 2,245.7 13.2% | 2,500.1 11.3% | 2,736.6 9.5% | 2,944.5 7.6% | 3,113.2 5.7% | 3,233.6 3.9% | 3,298.2 2.0% |
% margin | 67.0 14.3% | 101.8 19.8% | 69.3 13.0% | 126.8 14.3% | 227.5 19.5% | 195.5 16.0% | 244.3 16.0% | 275.6 16.0% | 317.1 16.0% | 358.9 16.0% | 399.6 16.0% | 437.4 16.0% | 470.6 16.0% | 497.6 16.0% | 516.8 16.0% | 527.1 16.0% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 53.7 11.4% | 78.9 15.3% | 58.8 11.0% | 102.2 11.5% | 181.1 15.5% | 155.6 12.7% | 194.5 12.7% | 219.4 12.7% | 252.4 12.7% | 285.7 12.7% | 318.0 12.7% | 348.1 12.7% | 374.6 12.7% | 396.0 12.7% | 411.4 12.7% | 419.6 12.7% |
% of revenue | 22.8 4.9% | 25.6 5.0% | 30.4 5.7% | 35.4 4.0% | 46.8 4.0% | 55.8 4.6% | 69.7 4.6% | 78.6 4.6% | 90.5 4.6% | 102.4 4.6% | 114.0 4.6% | 124.8 4.6% | 134.3 4.6% | 142.0 4.6% | 147.5 4.6% | 150.4 4.6% |
% of revenue | (37.2) (7.9%) | (67.8) (13.2%) | (55.4) (10.4%) | (76.0) (8.6%) | (104.3) (8.9%) | (113.5) (9.3%) | (141.9) (9.3%) | (160.0) (9.3%) | (184.1) (9.3%) | (208.4) (9.3%) | (232.0) (9.3%) | (253.9) (9.3%) | (273.2) (9.3%) | (288.9) (9.3%) | (300.0) (9.3%) | (306.0) (9.3%) |
% of revenue | 1.8 0.4% | 5.0 1.0% | (44.1) (8.3%) | (77.6) (8.7%) | (76.9) (6.6%) | (96.1) (7.9%) | (120.1) (7.9%) | (135.5) (7.9%) | (155.9) (7.9%) | (176.4) (7.9%) | (196.4) (7.9%) | (215.0) (7.9%) | (231.3) (7.9%) | (244.6) (7.9%) | (254.0) (7.9%) | (259.1) (7.9%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 41.1 8.8% | 41.7 8.1% | (10.3) (1.9%) | (16.0) (1.8%) | 46.7 4.0% | 1.8 0.1% | 2.3 0.1% | 2.5 0.1% | 2.9 0.1% | 3.3 0.1% | 3.7 0.1% | 4.0 0.1% | 4.3 0.1% | 4.6 0.1% | 4.8 0.1% | 4.9 0.1% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
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AAON DCF Value
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FAQ
What is AAON, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AAON, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $0.2. This suggests it may be overvalued by (99.7%) compared to its current price of around $73.5, using a WACC of 7.8% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is AAON, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AAON, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 7.8%.
What is AAON, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AAON, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $66.8M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.