Last Price$175.4(3.8%)
Market Cap$7,167.6M
DCF value
$406.6
Undervalued (DCF value)
131.9%
Discount Rate
5.1%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
AN DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 20,390.0 (4.4%) | 25,844.0 26.7% | 26,985.0 4.4% | 26,948.9 (0.1%) | 26,765.4 (0.7%) | 26,745.3 (0.1%) | 27,123.9 1.4% | 28,635.9 5.6% | 29,203.3 2.0% | 29,803.5 2.1% | 30,438.2 2.1% | 31,109.0 2.2% | 31,817.6 2.3% | 32,565.9 2.4% | 33,355.9 2.4% | 34,189.8 2.5% |
% margin | 1,083.4 5.3% | 1,902.8 7.4% | 2,024.5 7.5% | 1,651.9 6.1% | 1,305.5 4.9% | 1,460.9 5.5% | 1,481.6 5.5% | 1,564.2 5.5% | 1,595.2 5.5% | 1,628.0 5.5% | 1,662.7 5.5% | 1,699.3 5.5% | 1,738.0 5.5% | 1,778.9 5.5% | 1,822.0 5.5% | 1,867.6 5.5% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 751.9 3.7% | 1,445.0 5.6% | 1,521.2 5.6% | 1,248.2 4.6% | 985.8 3.7% | 1,103.2 4.1% | 1,118.8 4.1% | 1,181.1 4.1% | 1,204.5 4.1% | 1,229.3 4.1% | 1,255.5 4.1% | 1,283.1 4.1% | 1,312.4 4.1% | 1,343.2 4.1% | 1,375.8 4.1% | 1,410.2 4.1% |
% of revenue | 198.9 1.0% | 193.3 0.7% | 200.3 0.7% | 220.5 0.8% | 240.7 0.9% | 219.3 0.8% | 222.4 0.8% | 234.8 0.8% | 239.4 0.8% | 244.4 0.8% | 249.6 0.8% | 255.1 0.8% | 260.9 0.8% | 267.0 0.8% | 273.5 0.8% | 280.3 0.8% |
% of revenue | (156.0) (0.8%) | (215.7) (0.8%) | (329.0) (1.2%) | (410.3) (1.5%) | 0.0 0.0% | (244.4) (0.9%) | (247.9) (0.9%) | (261.7) (0.9%) | (266.9) (0.9%) | (272.4) (0.9%) | (278.2) (0.9%) | (284.3) (0.9%) | (290.8) (0.9%) | (297.6) (0.9%) | (304.8) (0.9%) | (312.5) (0.9%) |
% of revenue | 390.8 1.9% | 78.0 0.3% | 4.8 0.0% | (607.4) (2.3%) | 0.0 0.0% | (199.4) (0.7%) | (202.2) (0.7%) | (213.4) (0.7%) | (217.7) (0.7%) | (222.1) (0.7%) | (226.9) (0.7%) | (231.9) (0.7%) | (237.2) (0.7%) | (242.7) (0.7%) | (248.6) (0.7%) | (254.8) (0.7%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 1,185.6 5.8% | 1,500.6 5.8% | 1,397.3 5.2% | 451.0 1.7% | 1,226.5 4.6% | 878.7 3.3% | 891.1 3.3% | 940.8 3.3% | 959.4 3.3% | 979.1 3.3% | 1,000.0 3.3% | 1,022.0 3.3% | 1,045.3 3.3% | 1,069.9 3.3% | 1,095.8 3.3% | 1,123.2 3.3% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 711.5 | 827.1 | 830.9 | 806.3 | 783.0 | 760.9 | 740.0 | 720.2 | 701.4 | 683.6 |
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AN DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
7,564.9M
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
28.3B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
17.7B
70.0%
Total Debt
8,654.7M
16.6B
Shares outstanding
40.9M
FX rate
1.0
406.6
131.9% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
AN DCF Financials
Revenue
$26.8B -> $33.4B
2.2% CAGR
Operating Income
$1,305.5M -> $1,822.0M
3.4% CAGR
FCFF
$1,226.5M -> $1,095.8M
(1.1%) CAGR
AN DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
4.0%
$439.0
$439.0
$439.0
$439.0
$439.0
4.5%
$424.0
$424.0
$424.0
$424.0
$424.0
5.1%
$407.0
$407.0
$407.0
$407.0
$407.0
5.5%
$384.0
$395.0
$395.0
$395.0
$395.0
6.0%
$318.0
$362.0
$382.0
$382.0
$382.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
4.0%
150.0%
150.0%
150.0%
150.0%
150.0%
4.5%
142.0%
142.0%
142.0%
142.0%
142.0%
5.1%
132.0%
132.0%
132.0%
132.0%
132.0%
5.5%
119.0%
125.0%
125.0%
125.0%
125.0%
6.0%
81.0%
106.0%
118.0%
118.0%
118.0%
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FAQ
What is AutoNation, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AutoNation, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $406.6. This suggests it may be undervalued by 131.9% compared to its current price of around $175.4, using a WACC of 5.1% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is AutoNation, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AutoNation, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 5.1%.
What is AutoNation, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AutoNation, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $25.2B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.