Last Price$337.33.6%
Market Cap$117.3B
DCF value
$65.3
Overvalued (DCF value)
(80.6%)
Discount Rate
10.6%
Long-Term Growth Rate
4.0%
Stock quality
8/10
Great
APP DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 994.1 105.7% | 1,451.1 46.0% | 2,793.1 92.5% | 2,817.1 0.9% | 3,283.1 16.5% | 4,596.1 40.0% | 5,651.8 23.0% | 6,825.9 20.8% | 8,266.3 21.1% | 9,808.5 18.7% | 11,399.0 16.2% | 12,968.8 13.8% | 14,438.0 11.3% | 15,720.9 8.9% | 16,733.8 6.4% | 17,403.2 4.0% |
% margin | 194.4 19.6% | 24.8 1.7% | 150.0 5.4% | (8.7) (0.3%) | 648.2 19.7% | 367.7 8.0% | 452.1 8.0% | 546.1 8.0% | 661.3 8.0% | 784.7 8.0% | 911.9 8.0% | 1,037.5 8.0% | 1,155.0 8.0% | 1,257.6 8.0% | 1,338.7 8.0% | 1,392.2 8.0% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 183.3 18.4% | 23.0 1.6% | 114.5 4.1% | (9.2) (0.3%) | 607.6 18.5% | 344.6 7.5% | 423.8 7.5% | 511.8 7.5% | 619.8 7.5% | 735.5 7.5% | 854.7 7.5% | 972.4 7.5% | 1,082.6 7.5% | 1,178.8 7.5% | 1,254.7 7.5% | 1,304.9 7.5% |
% of revenue | 90.3 9.1% | 254.1 17.5% | 431.1 15.4% | 547.1 19.4% | 489.0 14.9% | 762.2 16.6% | 937.2 16.6% | 1,131.9 16.6% | 1,370.8 16.6% | 1,626.5 16.6% | 1,890.3 16.6% | 2,150.6 16.6% | 2,394.2 16.6% | 2,607.0 16.6% | 2,774.9 16.6% | 2,885.9 16.6% |
% of revenue | (3.4) (0.3%) | (3.2) (0.2%) | (5.5) (0.2%) | (6.6) (0.2%) | (4.2) (0.1%) | (8.6) (0.2%) | (10.5) (0.2%) | (12.7) (0.2%) | (15.4) (0.2%) | (18.3) (0.2%) | (21.3) (0.2%) | (24.2) (0.2%) | (26.9) (0.2%) | (29.3) (0.2%) | (31.2) (0.2%) | (32.5) (0.2%) |
% of revenue | (31.2) (3.1%) | (67.0) (4.6%) | (284.3) (10.2%) | (292.4) (10.4%) | (208.7) (6.4%) | (412.4) (9.0%) | (507.1) (9.0%) | (612.4) (9.0%) | (741.6) (9.0%) | (880.0) (9.0%) | (1,022.7) (9.0%) | (1,163.5) (9.0%) | (1,295.4) (9.0%) | (1,410.5) (9.0%) | (1,501.3) (9.0%) | (1,561.4) (9.0%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 239.1 24.0% | 206.9 14.3% | 255.8 9.2% | 238.9 8.5% | 883.7 26.9% | 685.9 14.9% | 843.4 14.9% | 1,018.6 14.9% | 1,233.5 14.9% | 1,463.7 14.9% | 1,701.0 14.9% | 1,935.3 14.9% | 2,154.5 14.9% | 2,346.0 14.9% | 2,497.1 14.9% | 2,597.0 14.9% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.42 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 665.6 | 875.2 | 957.9 | 1,027.3 | 1,079.0 | 1,109.5 | 1,116.4 | 1,098.7 | 1,057.0 |
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APP DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
8,986.8M
35.2%
Terminal Value (TV)
39.1B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
16.5B
64.8%
Total Debt
3,321.6M
22.7B
Shares outstanding
347.7M
FX rate
1.0
65.3
80.6% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
APP DCF Financials
Revenue
$3,283.1M -> $16.7B
17.7% CAGR
Operating Income
$648.2M -> $1,338.7M
7.5% CAGR
FCFF
$883.7M -> $2,497.1M
10.9% CAGR
APP DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
10.0%
$66.0
$70.0
$74.0
$79.0
$80.0
10.5%
$61.0
$64.0
$67.0
$71.0
$76.0
10.6%
$59.0
$62.0
$65.0
$69.0
$74.0
11.5%
$52.0
$54.0
$56.0
$59.0
$62.0
12.0%
$48.0
$50.0
$52.0
$54.0
$57.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
10.0%
(80.0%)
(79.0%)
(78.0%)
(77.0%)
(76.0%)
10.5%
(82.0%)
(81.0%)
(80.0%)
(79.0%)
(77.0%)
10.6%
(83.0%)
(82.0%)
(81.0%)
(80.0%)
(78.0%)
11.5%
(85.0%)
(84.0%)
(83.0%)
(83.0%)
(82.0%)
12.0%
(86.0%)
(85.0%)
(85.0%)
(84.0%)
(83.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for APP
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is AppLovin Corporation DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AppLovin Corporation's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $65.3. This suggests it may be overvalued by (80.6%) compared to its current price of around $337.3, using a WACC of 10.6% and growth rates of 4.0%.
What is AppLovin Corporation WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AppLovin Corporation's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 10.6%.
What is AppLovin Corporation Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, AppLovin Corporation's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $25.5B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.