Last Price$35.91.1%
Market Cap$9,517.2M
DCF value
$8.7
Overvalued (DCF value)
(75.9%)
Discount Rate
10.4%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
5/10
Good
ARMK DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Oct'20 Actual | Oct'21 Actual | Sep'22 Actual | Sep'23 Actual | Sep'24 Actual | Sep'25 Estimate | Sep'26 Estimate | Sep'27 Estimate | Sep'28 Estimate | Sep'29 Estimate | Sep'30 Estimate | Sep'31 Estimate | Sep'32 Estimate | Sep'33 Estimate | Sep'34 Estimate | Sep'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 12,829.6 (20.9%) | 12,096.0 (5.7%) | 16,326.6 35.0% | 18,853.9 15.5% | 17,400.7 (7.7%) | 18,731.6 7.6% | 19,646.1 4.9% | 20,860.9 6.2% | 22,607.6 8.4% | 23,815.0 5.3% | 24,954.2 4.8% | 26,009.1 4.2% | 26,963.7 3.7% | 27,803.2 3.1% | 28,514.0 2.6% | 29,084.3 2.0% |
% margin | (66.3) (0.5%) | 191.4 1.6% | 628.4 3.8% | 862.9 4.6% | 706.5 4.1% | 423.5 2.3% | 444.2 2.3% | 471.6 2.3% | 511.1 2.3% | 538.4 2.3% | 564.2 2.3% | 588.0 2.3% | 609.6 2.3% | 628.6 2.3% | 644.7 2.3% | 657.6 2.3% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | (47.2) (0.4%) | 132.9 1.1% | 477.3 2.9% | 682.9 3.6% | 507.1 2.9% | 304.0 1.6% | 318.8 1.6% | 338.5 1.6% | 366.9 1.6% | 386.5 1.6% | 405.0 1.6% | 422.1 1.6% | 437.6 1.6% | 451.2 1.6% | 462.7 1.6% | 472.0 1.6% |
% of revenue | 595.2 4.6% | 550.7 4.6% | 532.3 3.3% | 546.4 2.9% | 435.5 2.5% | 540.8 2.9% | 567.2 2.9% | 602.3 2.9% | 652.7 2.9% | 687.6 2.9% | 720.5 2.9% | 750.9 2.9% | 778.5 2.9% | 802.7 2.9% | 823.2 2.9% | 839.7 2.9% |
% of revenue | (364.4) (2.8%) | (375.3) (3.1%) | (364.8) (2.2%) | (461.4) (2.4%) | 0.0 0.0% | (292.3) (1.6%) | (306.6) (1.6%) | (325.5) (1.6%) | (352.8) (1.6%) | (371.6) (1.6%) | (389.4) (1.6%) | (405.9) (1.6%) | (420.8) (1.6%) | (433.9) (1.6%) | (445.0) (1.6%) | (453.8) (1.6%) |
% of revenue | (235.1) (1.8%) | 317.5 2.6% | (108.7) (0.7%) | (72.6) (0.4%) | 14.0 0.1% | (60.6) (0.3%) | (63.5) (0.3%) | (67.5) (0.3%) | (73.1) (0.3%) | (77.0) (0.3%) | (80.7) (0.3%) | (84.1) (0.3%) | (87.2) (0.3%) | (89.9) (0.3%) | (92.2) (0.3%) | (94.1) (0.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (51.6) (0.4%) | 625.7 5.2% | 536.2 3.3% | 695.2 3.7% | 956.7 5.5% | 491.9 2.6% | 515.9 2.6% | 547.8 2.6% | 593.7 2.6% | 625.4 2.6% | 655.3 2.6% | 683.0 2.6% | 708.1 2.6% | 730.1 2.6% | 748.8 2.6% | 763.8 2.6% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 55.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.39 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 261.6 | 444.5 | 427.3 | 419.3 | 399.9 | 379.4 | 358.0 | 336.0 | 313.7 | 291.3 |
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ARMK DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 07, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
3,630.9M
50.8%
Terminal Value (TV)
9,039.4M
Discounted TV
% share of EV
3,516.3M
49.2%
7,147.2M
Total Debt
5,566.6M
2,295.4M
Shares outstanding
264.9M
FX rate
1.0
8.7
75.9% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
ARMK DCF Financials
Revenue
$17.4B -> $28.5B
5.1% CAGR
Operating Income
$706.5M -> $644.7M
(0.9%) CAGR
FCFF
$956.7M -> $748.8M
(2.4%) CAGR
ARMK DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
9.0%
$12.0
$13.0
$14.0
$16.0
$17.0
9.5%
$10.0
$11.0
$12.0
$13.0
$15.0
10.4%
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$10.0
10.5%
$7.0
$8.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
11.0%
$6.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$8.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
9.0%
(67.0%)
(64.0%)
(61.0%)
(55.0%)
(53.0%)
9.5%
(72.0%)
(69.0%)
(67.0%)
(64.0%)
(58.0%)
10.4%
(81.0%)
(78.0%)
(75.0%)
(72.0%)
(72.0%)
10.5%
(81.0%)
(78.0%)
(78.0%)
(75.0%)
(72.0%)
11.0%
(83.0%)
(83.0%)
(81.0%)
(78.0%)
(78.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for ARMK
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Earnings growth model
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Aramark DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 07, 2025, Aramark's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $8.7. This suggests it may be overvalued by (75.9%) compared to its current price of around $35.9, using a WACC of 10.4% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is Aramark WACC?
As of Mar 07, 2025, Aramark's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 10.4%.
What is Aramark Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 07, 2025, Aramark's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $7,147.2M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.