Last Price$70.2(2.4%)
Market Cap$25.7B
DCF value
($10.9)
Overvalued (DCF value)
(115.5%)
Discount Rate
6.8%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
5/10
Good
EL DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Jun'20 Actual | Jun'21 Actual | Jun'22 Actual | Jun'23 Actual | Jun'24 Actual | Jun'25 Estimate | Jun'26 Estimate | Jun'27 Estimate | Jun'28 Estimate | Jun'29 Estimate | Jun'30 Estimate | Jun'31 Estimate | Jun'32 Estimate | Jun'33 Estimate | Jun'34 Estimate | Jun'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 14,294.0 (3.8%) | 16,215.0 13.4% | 17,737.0 9.4% | 15,910.0 (10.3%) | 15,608.0 (1.9%) | 14,751.7 (5.5%) | 15,302.7 3.7% | 15,968.5 4.4% | 18,059.1 13.1% | 20,137.3 11.5% | 22,135.5 9.9% | 23,981.3 8.3% | 25,601.0 6.8% | 26,924.3 5.2% | 27,889.5 3.6% | 28,447.2 2.0% |
% margin | 2,706.0 18.9% | 3,896.0 24.0% | 3,170.0 17.9% | 1,509.0 9.5% | 970.0 6.2% | 2,010.5 13.6% | 2,085.6 13.6% | 2,176.3 13.6% | 2,461.3 13.6% | 2,744.5 13.6% | 3,016.8 13.6% | 3,268.4 13.6% | 3,489.1 13.6% | 3,669.5 13.6% | 3,801.0 13.6% | 3,877.1 13.6% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 1,800.6 12.6% | 3,362.7 20.7% | 2,514.3 14.2% | 1,091.0 6.9% | 513.9 3.3% | 1,065.2 7.2% | 1,104.9 7.2% | 1,153.0 7.2% | 1,304.0 7.2% | 1,454.0 7.2% | 1,598.3 7.2% | 1,731.6 7.2% | 1,848.5 7.2% | 1,944.1 7.2% | 2,013.8 7.2% | 2,054.0 7.2% |
% of revenue | 611.0 4.3% | 651.0 4.0% | 715.0 4.0% | 733.0 4.6% | 825.0 5.3% | 684.7 4.6% | 710.3 4.6% | 741.2 4.6% | 838.2 4.6% | 934.6 4.6% | 1,027.4 4.6% | 1,113.1 4.6% | 1,188.2 4.6% | 1,249.7 4.6% | 1,294.4 4.6% | 1,320.3 4.6% |
% of revenue | (623.0) (4.4%) | (637.0) (3.9%) | (1,040.0) (5.9%) | (3,289.0) (20.7%) | (919.0) (5.9%) | (1,594.4) (10.8%) | (1,653.9) (10.8%) | (1,725.9) (10.8%) | (1,951.8) (10.8%) | (2,176.4) (10.8%) | (2,392.4) (10.8%) | (2,591.9) (10.8%) | (2,766.9) (10.8%) | (2,910.0) (10.8%) | (3,014.3) (10.8%) | (3,074.6) (10.8%) |
% of revenue | (11.0) (0.1%) | 554.0 3.4% | (554.0) (3.1%) | (356.0) (2.2%) | 631.0 4.0% | (64.8) (0.4%) | (67.2) (0.4%) | (70.2) (0.4%) | (79.4) (0.4%) | (88.5) (0.4%) | (97.3) (0.4%) | (105.4) (0.4%) | (112.5) (0.4%) | (118.3) (0.4%) | (122.5) (0.4%) | (125.0) (0.4%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 1,777.6 12.4% | 3,930.7 24.2% | 1,635.3 9.2% | (1,821.0) (11.4%) | 1,050.9 6.7% | 90.6 0.6% | 94.0 0.6% | 98.1 0.6% | 111.0 0.6% | 123.7 0.6% | 136.0 0.6% | 147.4 0.6% | 157.3 0.6% | 165.4 0.6% | 171.4 0.6% | 174.8 0.6% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 32.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 28.6 | 85.2 | 83.2 | 88.1 | 92.0 | 94.7 | 96.1 | 96.0 | 94.6 | 91.7 |
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EL DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
850.4M
30.4%
Terminal Value (TV)
3,641.4M
Discounted TV
% share of EV
1,949.1M
69.6%
2,799.5M
3,395.0M
Total Debt
10.2B
(3,985.5M)
Shares outstanding
366.7M
FX rate
1.0
(10.9)
115.5% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
EL DCF Financials
Revenue
$15.6B -> $27.9B
6.0% CAGR
Operating Income
$970.0M -> $3,801.0M
14.6% CAGR
FCFF
$1,050.9M -> $171.4M
(16.6%) CAGR
EL DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
($11.0)
($10.0)
($10.0)
($10.0)
($10.0)
6.5%
($11.0)
($11.0)
($11.0)
($11.0)
($11.0)
6.8%
($12.0)
($11.0)
($11.0)
($11.0)
($11.0)
7.5%
($13.0)
($12.0)
($12.0)
($11.0)
($11.0)
8.0%
($13.0)
($13.0)
($12.0)
($12.0)
($12.0)
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
(116.0%)
(114.0%)
(114.0%)
(114.0%)
(114.0%)
6.5%
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
6.8%
(117.0%)
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
7.5%
(119.0%)
(117.0%)
(117.0%)
(116.0%)
(116.0%)
8.0%
(119.0%)
(119.0%)
(117.0%)
(117.0%)
(117.0%)
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FAQ
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at ($10.9). This suggests it may be overvalued by (115.5%) compared to its current price of around $70.2, using a WACC of 6.8% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 6.8%.
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $2,799.5M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.