Last Price$179.5(3.7%)
Market Cap$36.8B
DCF value
$202.9
Undervalued (DCF value)
13.0%
Discount Rate
6.6%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
7/10
Good
HSY DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 8,149.7 2.0% | 8,971.3 10.1% | 10,419.3 16.1% | 11,165.0 7.2% | 11,202.3 0.3% | 11,419.4 1.9% | 11,729.7 2.7% | 11,978.1 2.1% | 12,151.1 1.4% | 12,592.9 3.6% | 13,016.3 3.4% | 13,418.6 3.1% | 13,796.6 2.8% | 14,147.8 2.5% | 14,469.3 2.3% | 14,758.7 2.0% |
% margin | 1,377.1 16.9% | 1,613.2 18.0% | 1,677.7 16.1% | 2,560.9 22.9% | 2,898.2 25.9% | 2,412.8 21.1% | 2,478.4 21.1% | 2,530.9 21.1% | 2,567.5 21.1% | 2,660.8 21.1% | 2,750.3 21.1% | 2,835.3 21.1% | 2,915.1 21.1% | 2,989.3 21.1% | 3,057.3 21.1% | 3,118.4 21.1% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 1,174.8 14.4% | 1,331.0 14.8% | 1,439.4 13.8% | 2,195.3 19.7% | 2,602.2 23.2% | 2,166.4 19.0% | 2,225.3 19.0% | 2,272.4 19.0% | 2,305.2 19.0% | 2,389.0 19.0% | 2,469.3 19.0% | 2,545.7 19.0% | 2,617.4 19.0% | 2,684.0 19.0% | 2,745.0 19.0% | 2,799.9 19.0% |
% of revenue | 265.5 3.3% | 282.8 3.2% | 333.3 3.2% | 419.8 3.8% | 455.3 4.1% | 419.6 3.7% | 431.0 3.7% | 440.1 3.7% | 446.5 3.7% | 462.7 3.7% | 478.2 3.7% | 493.0 3.7% | 506.9 3.7% | 519.8 3.7% | 531.6 3.7% | 542.3 3.7% |
% of revenue | (441.6) (5.4%) | (495.9) (5.5%) | (519.5) (5.0%) | (771.1) (6.9%) | 0.0 0.0% | (452.7) (4.0%) | (465.0) (4.0%) | (474.8) (4.0%) | (481.7) (4.0%) | (499.2) (4.0%) | (516.0) (4.0%) | (531.9) (4.0%) | (546.9) (4.0%) | (560.8) (4.0%) | (573.6) (4.0%) | (585.0) (4.0%) |
% of revenue | (191.6) (2.4%) | 46.3 0.5% | (29.4) (0.3%) | (341.9) (3.1%) | (53.1) (0.5%) | (145.3) (1.3%) | (149.3) (1.3%) | (152.4) (1.3%) | (154.6) (1.3%) | (160.2) (1.3%) | (165.6) (1.3%) | (170.7) (1.3%) | (175.6) (1.3%) | (180.0) (1.3%) | (184.1) (1.3%) | (187.8) (1.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 807.1 9.9% | 1,164.1 13.0% | 1,223.8 11.7% | 1,502.1 13.5% | 3,004.4 26.8% | 1,988.0 17.4% | 2,042.0 17.4% | 2,085.2 17.4% | 2,115.4 17.4% | 2,192.3 17.4% | 2,266.0 17.4% | 2,336.0 17.4% | 2,401.8 17.4% | 2,463.0 17.4% | 2,518.9 17.4% | 2,569.3 17.4% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,555.9 | 1,854.2 | 1,775.5 | 1,689.0 | 1,641.4 | 1,590.9 | 1,537.9 | 1,482.8 | 1,425.8 | 1,367.4 |
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HSY DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
15.9B
34.6%
Terminal Value (TV)
55.3B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
30.0B
65.4%
Total Debt
5,096.5M
41.6B
Shares outstanding
205.0M
FX rate
1.0
202.9
13% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
HSY DCF Financials
Revenue
$11.2B -> $14.5B
2.6% CAGR
Operating Income
$2,898.2M -> $3,057.3M
0.5% CAGR
FCFF
$3,004.4M -> $2,518.9M
(1.7%) CAGR
HSY DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
$203.0
$219.0
$239.0
$245.0
$245.0
6.5%
$182.0
$195.0
$210.0
$229.0
$239.0
6.6%
$177.0
$189.0
$203.0
$221.0
$238.0
7.5%
$150.0
$159.0
$168.0
$180.0
$194.0
8.0%
$138.0
$145.0
$152.0
$162.0
$172.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
13.0%
22.0%
33.0%
36.0%
36.0%
6.5%
1.0%
9.0%
17.0%
28.0%
33.0%
6.6%
(1.0%)
5.0%
13.0%
23.0%
33.0%
7.5%
(16.0%)
(11.0%)
(6.0%)
0.0%
8.0%
8.0%
(23.0%)
(19.0%)
(15.0%)
(10.0%)
(4.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for HSY
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is The Hershey Company DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, The Hershey Company's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $202.9. This suggests it may be undervalued by 13.0% compared to its current price of around $179.5, using a WACC of 6.6% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is The Hershey Company WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, The Hershey Company's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 6.6%.
What is The Hershey Company Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, The Hershey Company's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $46.0B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.