Last Price$63.00.0%
Market Cap$4,674.2M
DCF value
$501.0
Undervalued (DCF value)
695.4%
Discount Rate
11.5%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
MDC DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 3,293.3 7.4% | 3,901.2 18.5% | 5,254.7 34.7% | 5,718.0 8.8% | 122.6 (97.9%) | 4,885.3 3,885.7% | 5,304.0 8.6% | 5,672.0 6.9% | 6,034.1 6.4% | 6,385.8 5.8% | 6,722.5 5.3% | 7,039.8 4.7% | 7,332.9 4.2% | 7,597.6 3.6% | 7,829.7 3.1% | 8,025.5 2.5% |
% margin | 305.0 9.3% | 457.5 11.7% | 775.3 14.8% | 759.9 13.3% | 376.2 306.9% | 1,456.1 29.8% | 1,580.9 29.8% | 1,690.6 29.8% | 1,798.5 29.8% | 1,903.4 29.8% | 2,003.7 29.8% | 2,098.3 29.8% | 2,185.7 29.8% | 2,264.6 29.8% | 2,333.7 29.8% | 2,392.1 29.8% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 238.3 7.2% | 367.6 9.4% | 591.6 11.3% | 562.1 9.8% | 465.7 379.9% | 1,802.4 36.9% | 1,956.8 36.9% | 2,092.6 36.9% | 2,226.2 36.9% | 2,355.9 36.9% | 2,480.2 36.9% | 2,597.2 36.9% | 2,705.4 36.9% | 2,803.0 36.9% | 2,888.7 36.9% | 2,960.9 36.9% |
% of revenue | 23.1 0.7% | 27.2 0.7% | 31.7 0.6% | 27.8 0.5% | 25.6 20.8% | 357.2 7.3% | 387.8 7.3% | 414.7 7.3% | 441.2 7.3% | 466.9 7.3% | 491.5 7.3% | 514.7 7.3% | 536.2 7.3% | 555.5 7.3% | 572.5 7.3% | 586.8 7.3% |
% of revenue | (24.7) (0.8%) | (26.8) (0.7%) | (29.7) (0.6%) | (29.1) (0.5%) | (43.1) (35.2%) | (590.7) (12.1%) | (641.3) (12.1%) | (685.8) (12.1%) | (729.6) (12.1%) | (772.1) (12.1%) | (812.8) (12.1%) | (851.2) (12.1%) | (886.6) (12.1%) | (918.7) (12.1%) | (946.7) (12.1%) | (970.4) (12.1%) |
% of revenue | (232.4) (7.1%) | (466.9) (12.0%) | (869.6) (16.5%) | 135.4 2.4% | 101.2 82.6% | 1,113.8 22.8% | 1,209.2 22.8% | 1,293.1 22.8% | 1,375.6 22.8% | 1,455.8 22.8% | 1,532.6 22.8% | 1,604.9 22.8% | 1,671.8 22.8% | 1,732.1 22.8% | 1,785.0 22.8% | 1,829.6 22.8% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 4.3 0.1% | (98.9) (2.5%) | (276.0) (5.3%) | 696.2 12.2% | 549.3 448.1% | 2,682.7 54.9% | 2,912.5 54.9% | 3,114.6 54.9% | 3,313.4 54.9% | 3,506.6 54.9% | 3,691.5 54.9% | 3,865.7 54.9% | 4,026.7 54.9% | 4,172.0 54.9% | 4,299.5 54.9% | 4,407.0 54.9% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 70.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.35 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,788.5 | 2,472.4 | 2,370.4 | 2,260.9 | 2,145.1 | 2,024.6 | 1,900.8 | 1,775.1 | 1,648.9 | 1,523.4 |
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MDC DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Apr 18, 2024
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
19.9B
53.5%
Terminal Value (TV)
48.7B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
17.3B
46.5%
1,717.1M
Total Debt
1,721.3M
37.2B
Shares outstanding
74.2M
FX rate
1.0
501.0
695.4% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
MDC DCF Financials
Revenue
$122.6M -> $7,829.7M
51.5% CAGR
Operating Income
$376.2M -> $2,333.7M
20.0% CAGR
FCFF
$549.3M -> $4,299.5M
22.8% CAGR
MDC DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
11.0%
$506.0
$519.0
$534.0
$550.0
$568.0
11.5%
$480.0
$491.0
$503.0
$517.0
$533.0
11.5%
$478.0
$489.0
$501.0
$515.0
$530.0
12.5%
$434.0
$442.0
$452.0
$462.0
$473.0
13.0%
$414.0
$422.0
$430.0
$438.0
$448.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
11.0%
703.0%
724.0%
748.0%
773.0%
802.0%
11.5%
662.0%
680.0%
699.0%
721.0%
746.0%
11.5%
659.0%
676.0%
695.0%
718.0%
742.0%
12.5%
589.0%
602.0%
618.0%
634.0%
651.0%
13.0%
557.0%
570.0%
583.0%
595.0%
611.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for MDC
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Apr 18, 2024, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $501.0. This suggests it may be undervalued by 695.4% compared to its current price of around $63.0, using a WACC of 11.5% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. WACC?
As of Apr 18, 2024, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 11.5%.
What is M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Apr 18, 2024, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $37.2B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.