Last Price$96.6(3.1%)
Market Cap$63.1B
DCF value
$162.1
Undervalued (DCF value)
67.7%
Discount Rate
8.6%
Long-Term Growth Rate
4.0%
Stock quality
7/10
Great
NTES DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 59,241.1 (11.8%) | 73,667.1 24.4% | 87,606.0 18.9% | 96,495.8 10.1% | 103,468.2 7.2% | 106,157.8 2.6% | 114,088.0 7.5% | 122,343.5 7.2% | 134,750.8 10.1% | 147,234.0 9.3% | 159,582.0 8.4% | 171,565.5 7.5% | 182,943.7 6.6% | 193,471.4 5.8% | 202,907.7 4.9% | 211,024.0 4.0% |
% margin | 13,790.7 23.3% | 14,538.4 19.7% | 16,417.1 18.7% | 19,628.6 20.3% | 27,709.1 26.8% | 23,116.0 21.8% | 24,842.8 21.8% | 26,640.4 21.8% | 29,342.1 21.8% | 32,060.4 21.8% | 34,749.1 21.8% | 37,358.6 21.8% | 39,836.2 21.8% | 42,128.6 21.8% | 44,183.4 21.8% | 45,950.7 21.8% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 11,337.2 19.1% | 11,661.5 15.8% | 13,205.7 15.1% | 15,555.7 16.1% | 23,885.4 23.1% | 19,926.1 18.8% | 21,414.6 18.8% | 22,964.2 18.8% | 25,293.0 18.8% | 27,636.2 18.8% | 29,953.9 18.8% | 32,203.2 18.8% | 34,339.0 18.8% | 36,315.0 18.8% | 38,086.2 18.8% | 39,609.7 18.8% |
% of revenue | 2,613.8 4.4% | 3,457.8 4.7% | 3,275.7 3.7% | 2,858.2 3.0% | 3,055.3 3.0% | 3,416.2 3.2% | 3,671.4 3.2% | 3,937.0 3.2% | 4,336.3 3.2% | 4,738.0 3.2% | 5,135.4 3.2% | 5,521.0 3.2% | 5,887.1 3.2% | 6,225.9 3.2% | 6,529.6 3.2% | 6,790.8 3.2% |
% of revenue | (3,328.8) (5.6%) | (3,290.5) (4.5%) | (3,110.0) (3.5%) | (2,643.5) (2.7%) | (4,275.9) (4.1%) | (3,687.9) (3.5%) | (3,963.4) (3.5%) | (4,250.2) (3.5%) | (4,681.3) (3.5%) | (5,114.9) (3.5%) | (5,543.9) (3.5%) | (5,960.2) (3.5%) | (6,355.5) (3.5%) | (6,721.2) (3.5%) | (7,049.0) (3.5%) | (7,331.0) (3.5%) |
% of revenue | (358.2) (0.6%) | 4,771.5 6.5% | 3,188.0 3.6% | 3,497.4 3.6% | 375.9 0.4% | 2,698.8 2.5% | 2,900.4 2.5% | 3,110.2 2.5% | 3,425.7 2.5% | 3,743.0 2.5% | 4,056.9 2.5% | 4,361.6 2.5% | 4,650.8 2.5% | 4,918.5 2.5% | 5,158.4 2.5% | 5,364.7 2.5% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 10,264.0 17.3% | 16,600.3 22.5% | 16,559.4 18.9% | 19,267.8 20.0% | 23,040.7 22.3% | 22,353.1 21.1% | 24,022.9 21.1% | 25,761.2 21.1% | 28,373.7 21.1% | 31,002.3 21.1% | 33,602.3 21.1% | 36,125.6 21.1% | 38,521.4 21.1% | 40,738.2 21.1% | 42,725.1 21.1% | 44,434.2 21.1% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.49 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 19,132.1 | 22,747.1 | 23,059.5 | 23,190.0 | 23,134.0 | 22,891.3 | 22,466.3 | 21,867.8 | 21,108.6 |
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NTES DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
199.6B
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
942.7B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
465.7B
70.0%
665.3B
Total Debt
20.5B
771.6B
Shares outstanding
653.2M
FX rate
0.1
162.1
67.7% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
NTES DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥103.5B -> CN¥202.9B
7.0% CAGR
Operating Income
CN¥27.7B -> CN¥44.2B
4.8% CAGR
FCFF
CN¥23.0B -> CN¥42.7B
6.4% CAGR
NTES DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
8.0%
$162.0
$166.0
$166.0
$166.0
$166.0
8.5%
$149.0
$158.0
$163.0
$163.0
$163.0
8.6%
$146.0
$154.0
$162.0
$162.0
$162.0
9.5%
$129.0
$135.0
$141.0
$149.0
$157.0
10.0%
$121.0
$126.0
$131.0
$137.0
$145.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
8.0%
68.0%
72.0%
72.0%
72.0%
72.0%
8.5%
54.0%
64.0%
69.0%
69.0%
69.0%
8.6%
51.0%
59.0%
68.0%
68.0%
68.0%
9.5%
33.0%
40.0%
46.0%
54.0%
62.0%
10.0%
25.0%
30.0%
36.0%
42.0%
50.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for NTES
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is NetEase, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, NetEase, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $162.1. This suggests it may be undervalued by 67.7% compared to its current price of around $96.6, using a WACC of 8.6% and growth rates of 4.0%.
What is NetEase, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, NetEase, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.6%.
What is NetEase, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, NetEase, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥665.3B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.