Last Price$10.3(2.4%)
Market Cap$27.4B
DCF value
$13.5
Undervalued (DCF value)
31.2%
Discount Rate
7.6%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
7/10
Good
ORAN DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 42,238.0 2.1% | 42,270.0 0.1% | 42,522.0 0.6% | 43,471.0 2.2% | 44,122.0 1.5% | 44,280.2 0.4% | 44,740.2 1.0% | 45,266.0 1.2% | 45,390.5 0.3% | 45,952.9 1.2% | 46,618.8 1.4% | 47,392.4 1.7% | 48,278.4 1.9% | 49,282.4 2.1% | 50,410.9 2.3% | 51,671.2 2.5% |
% margin | 5,199.0 12.3% | 5,071.0 12.0% | 3,668.0 8.6% | 5,037.0 11.6% | 4,969.0 11.3% | 5,430.2 12.3% | 5,486.6 12.3% | 5,551.1 12.3% | 5,566.4 12.3% | 5,635.4 12.3% | 5,717.0 12.3% | 5,811.9 12.3% | 5,920.5 12.3% | 6,043.7 12.3% | 6,182.1 12.3% | 6,336.6 12.3% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 3,585.0 8.5% | 6,092.7 14.4% | 1,636.6 3.8% | 3,396.5 7.8% | 3,818.9 8.7% | 4,173.3 9.4% | 4,216.7 9.4% | 4,266.2 9.4% | 4,278.0 9.4% | 4,331.0 9.4% | 4,393.7 9.4% | 4,466.6 9.4% | 4,550.1 9.4% | 4,644.8 9.4% | 4,751.1 9.4% | 4,869.9 9.4% |
% of revenue | 8,398.0 19.9% | 8,573.0 20.3% | 8,639.0 20.3% | 8,649.0 19.9% | 8,963.0 20.3% | 8,933.8 20.2% | 9,026.6 20.2% | 9,132.7 20.2% | 9,157.8 20.2% | 9,271.3 20.2% | 9,405.6 20.2% | 9,561.7 20.2% | 9,740.4 20.2% | 9,943.0 20.2% | 10,170.7 20.2% | 10,424.9 20.2% |
% of revenue | (8,422.0) (19.9%) | (8,546.0) (20.2%) | (8,749.0) (20.6%) | (8,777.0) (20.2%) | (7,829.0) (17.7%) | (8,636.1) (19.5%) | (8,725.8) (19.5%) | (8,828.3) (19.5%) | (8,852.6) (19.5%) | (8,962.3) (19.5%) | (9,092.2) (19.5%) | (9,243.0) (19.5%) | (9,415.8) (19.5%) | (9,611.7) (19.5%) | (9,831.8) (19.5%) | (10,077.5) (19.5%) |
% of revenue | (934.0) (2.2%) | (641.0) (1.5%) | (178.0) (0.4%) | (792.0) (1.8%) | 91.0 0.2% | (300.3) (0.7%) | (303.4) (0.7%) | (306.9) (0.7%) | (307.8) (0.7%) | (311.6) (0.7%) | (316.1) (0.7%) | (321.4) (0.7%) | (327.4) (0.7%) | (334.2) (0.7%) | (341.8) (0.7%) | (350.4) (0.7%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 2,627.0 6.2% | 5,478.7 13.0% | 1,348.6 3.2% | 2,476.5 5.7% | 5,043.9 11.4% | 4,170.8 9.4% | 4,214.1 9.4% | 4,263.6 9.4% | 4,275.4 9.4% | 4,328.3 9.4% | 4,391.1 9.4% | 4,463.9 9.4% | 4,547.4 9.4% | 4,641.9 9.4% | 4,748.2 9.4% | 4,866.9 9.4% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 13.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 539.8 | 3,775.8 | 3,550.5 | 3,308.9 | 3,113.3 | 2,935.5 | 2,773.5 | 2,625.9 | 2,491.2 | 2,368.3 |
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ORAN DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Nov 12, 2024
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
27.5B
36.6%
Terminal Value (TV)
95.5B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
47.6B
63.4%
8,296.0M
Total Debt
49.6B
33.8B
Shares outstanding
2,658.2M
FX rate
1.1
13.5
31.2% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
ORAN DCF Financials
Revenue
€44.1B -> €50.4B
1.3% CAGR
Operating Income
€4,969.0M -> €6,182.1M
2.2% CAGR
FCFF
€5,043.9M -> €4,748.2M
(0.6%) CAGR
ORAN DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
7.0%
$13.0
$15.0
$18.0
$20.0
$21.0
7.5%
$11.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$19.0
7.6%
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
8.5%
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$12.0
9.0%
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
7.0%
26.0%
46.0%
75.0%
94.0%
104.0%
7.5%
7.0%
17.0%
36.0%
55.0%
85.0%
7.6%
(3.0%)
17.0%
36.0%
55.0%
75.0%
8.5%
(32.0%)
(22.0%)
(13.0%)
(3.0%)
17.0%
9.0%
(51.0%)
(42.0%)
(32.0%)
(22.0%)
(13.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for ORAN
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Orange S.A. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Nov 12, 2024, Orange S.A.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $13.5. This suggests it may be undervalued by 31.2% compared to its current price of around $10.3, using a WACC of 7.6% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Orange S.A. WACC?
As of Nov 12, 2024, Orange S.A.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 7.6%.
What is Orange S.A. Enterprise Value?
As of Nov 12, 2024, Orange S.A.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately €75.1B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.