Last Price$106.6(4.8%)
Market Cap$143.3B
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
11.0%
Long-Term Growth Rate
4.0%
Stock quality
8/10
Great
SHOP DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 2,929.5 85.6% | 4,611.9 57.4% | 5,599.9 21.4% | 7,060.0 26.1% | 8,880.0 25.8% | 10,653.1 20.0% | 12,913.3 21.2% | 16,829.1 30.3% | 20,477.9 21.7% | 24,400.6 19.2% | 28,458.4 16.6% | 32,472.1 14.1% | 36,231.6 11.6% | 39,511.3 9.1% | 42,089.8 6.5% | 43,773.4 4.0% |
% margin | 90.2 3.1% | 268.6 5.8% | (822.3) (14.7%) | 260.0 3.7% | 1,075.0 24.0% | (147.4) (1.4%) | (178.7) (1.4%) | (232.9) (1.4%) | (283.4) (1.4%) | (337.7) (1.4%) | (393.9) (1.4%) | (449.4) (1.4%) | (501.5) (1.4%) | (546.9) (1.4%) | (582.5) (1.4%) | (605.8) (1.4%) |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 119.8 4.1% | 249.3 5.4% | (785.4) (14.0%) | 185.5 2.6% | 974.2 11.0% | (133.6) (1.3%) | (162.0) (1.3%) | (211.1) (1.3%) | (256.8) (1.3%) | (306.0) (1.3%) | (356.9) (1.3%) | (407.3) (1.3%) | (454.4) (1.3%) | (495.6) (1.3%) | (527.9) (1.3%) | (549.0) (1.3%) |
% of revenue | 73.8 2.5% | 65.7 1.4% | 86.9 1.6% | 70.0 1.0% | 36.0 0.4% | 104.7 1.0% | 127.0 1.0% | 165.4 1.0% | 201.3 1.0% | 239.9 1.0% | 279.8 1.0% | 319.2 1.0% | 356.2 1.0% | 388.4 1.0% | 413.8 1.0% | 430.3 1.0% |
% of revenue | (42.0) (1.4%) | (50.8) (1.1%) | (50.0) (0.9%) | (39.0) (0.6%) | (19.0) (0.2%) | (58.9) (0.6%) | (71.4) (0.6%) | (93.1) (0.6%) | (113.3) (0.6%) | (135.0) (0.6%) | (157.4) (0.6%) | (179.6) (0.6%) | (200.4) (0.6%) | (218.6) (0.6%) | (232.8) (0.6%) | (242.2) (0.6%) |
% of revenue | (100.3) (3.4%) | (160.9) (3.5%) | (98.3) (1.8%) | 195.0 2.8% | (166.0) (1.9%) | (30.6) (0.3%) | (37.1) (0.3%) | (48.4) (0.3%) | (58.9) (0.3%) | (70.1) (0.3%) | (81.8) (0.3%) | (93.3) (0.3%) | (104.1) (0.3%) | (113.6) (0.3%) | (121.0) (0.3%) | (125.8) (0.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 51.3 1.8% | 103.3 2.2% | (846.8) (15.1%) | 411.5 5.8% | 1,785.4 20.1% | (118.4) (1.1%) | (143.6) (1.1%) | (187.1) (1.1%) | (227.7) (1.1%) | (271.3) (1.1%) | (316.4) (1.1%) | (361.0) (1.1%) | (402.8) (1.1%) | (439.3) (1.1%) | (467.9) (1.1%) | (486.6) (1.1%) |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.37 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) |
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SHOP DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
N/A
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
N/A
Discounted TV
% share of EV
N/A
70.0%
5,479.0M
Total Debt
1,854.0M
N/A
Shares outstanding
1,344.4M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
SHOP DCF Financials
Revenue
$8,880.0M -> $42.1B
16.8% CAGR
Operating Income
$1,075.0M -> ($582.5M)
N/A CAGR
FCFF
$1,785.4M -> ($467.9M)
N/A CAGR
SHOP DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
10.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
10.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
11.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
11.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
12.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
10.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
10.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
11.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
11.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
12.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for SHOP
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Peter Lynch charts
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Earnings growth model
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Shopify Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Shopify Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $106.6, using a WACC of 11.0% and growth rates of 4.0%.
What is Shopify Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Shopify Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 11.0%.
What is Shopify Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Shopify Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $0.0. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.