Last Price$54.9(1.6%)
Market Cap$1,850.8M
DCF value
$29.8
Overvalued (DCF value)
(45.6%)
Discount Rate
8.4%
Long-Term Growth Rate
1.5%
Stock quality
7/10
Good
SJW DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 564.5 34.3% | 573.7 1.6% | 620.7 8.2% | 670.4 8.0% | 748.4 11.6% | 757.0 1.1% | 765.4 1.1% | 792.2 3.5% | 818.0 3.3% | 842.6 3.0% | 865.9 2.8% | 887.6 2.5% | 907.6 2.3% | 925.8 2.0% | 942.0 1.8% | 956.2 1.5% |
% margin | 117.7 20.8% | 111.2 19.4% | 131.0 21.1% | 149.4 22.3% | 170.5 22.8% | 166.4 22.0% | 168.2 22.0% | 174.1 22.0% | 179.8 22.0% | 185.2 22.0% | 190.3 22.0% | 195.1 22.0% | 199.5 22.0% | 203.5 22.0% | 207.0 22.0% | 210.1 22.0% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 103.6 18.3% | 97.6 17.0% | 117.5 18.9% | 139.6 20.8% | 155.6 20.8% | 151.9 20.1% | 153.6 20.1% | 158.9 20.1% | 164.1 20.1% | 169.1 20.1% | 173.7 20.1% | 178.1 20.1% | 182.1 20.1% | 185.7 20.1% | 189.0 20.1% | 191.8 20.1% |
% of revenue | 91.6 16.2% | 186.3 32.5% | 106.4 17.1% | 108.1 16.1% | 115.1 15.4% | 122.8 16.2% | 124.1 16.2% | 128.5 16.2% | 132.7 16.2% | 136.7 16.2% | 140.4 16.2% | 143.9 16.2% | 147.2 16.2% | 150.1 16.2% | 152.8 16.2% | 155.1 16.2% |
% of revenue | (215.0) (38.1%) | (253.8) (44.2%) | (244.2) (39.3%) | (290.7) (43.4%) | 0.0 0.0% | (208.7) (27.6%) | (211.0) (27.6%) | (218.4) (27.6%) | (225.5) (27.6%) | (232.3) (27.6%) | (238.7) (27.6%) | (244.7) (27.6%) | (250.3) (27.6%) | (255.3) (27.6%) | (259.7) (27.6%) | (263.6) (27.6%) |
% of revenue | (39.9) (7.1%) | (17.2) (3.0%) | (6.3) (1.0%) | 3.7 0.5% | (3.8) (0.5%) | (2.4) (0.3%) | (2.5) (0.3%) | (2.5) (0.3%) | (2.6) (0.3%) | (2.7) (0.3%) | (2.8) (0.3%) | (2.9) (0.3%) | (2.9) (0.3%) | (3.0) (0.3%) | (3.0) (0.3%) | (3.1) (0.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (59.7) (10.6%) | 13.0 2.3% | (26.6) (4.3%) | (39.3) (5.9%) | 266.9 35.7% | 63.5 8.4% | 64.2 8.4% | 66.4 8.4% | 68.6 8.4% | 70.7 8.4% | 72.6 8.4% | 74.4 8.4% | 76.1 8.4% | 77.6 8.4% | 79.0 8.4% | 80.2 8.4% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 49.3 | 56.9 | 54.3 | 51.7 | 49.1 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 41.5 | 39.1 | 36.7 |
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SJW DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
469.1M
46.6%
Terminal Value (TV)
1,160.0M
Discounted TV
% share of EV
538.6M
53.4%
1,007.7M
1,306.0K
Total Debt
3,000.0K
1,006.0M
Shares outstanding
33.7M
FX rate
1.0
29.8
45.6% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
SJW DCF Financials
Revenue
$748.4M -> $942.0M
2.3% CAGR
Operating Income
$170.5M -> $207.0M
2.0% CAGR
FCFF
$266.9M -> $79.0M
(11.5%) CAGR
SJW DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
WACC
7.0%
$34.0
$36.0
$37.0
$40.0
$43.0
7.5%
$32.0
$33.0
$34.0
$36.0
$38.0
8.4%
$28.0
$29.0
$30.0
$31.0
$33.0
8.5%
$27.0
$28.0
$29.0
$31.0
$32.0
9.0%
$26.0
$27.0
$27.0
$28.0
$30.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
WACC
7.0%
(38.0%)
(34.0%)
(33.0%)
(27.0%)
(22.0%)
7.5%
(42.0%)
(40.0%)
(38.0%)
(34.0%)
(31.0%)
8.4%
(49.0%)
(47.0%)
(45.0%)
(44.0%)
(40.0%)
8.5%
(51.0%)
(49.0%)
(47.0%)
(44.0%)
(42.0%)
9.0%
(53.0%)
(51.0%)
(51.0%)
(49.0%)
(45.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for SJW
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is SJW Group DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, SJW Group's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $29.8. This suggests it may be overvalued by (45.6%) compared to its current price of around $54.9, using a WACC of 8.4% and growth rates of 1.5%.
What is SJW Group WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, SJW Group's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.4%.
What is SJW Group Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, SJW Group's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $1,007.7M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.