Last Price$175.3(0.1%)
Market Cap$32.2B
DCF value
($49.9)
Overvalued (DCF value)
(128.5%)
Discount Rate
8.3%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
STZ DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Feb'20 Actual | Feb'21 Actual | Feb'22 Actual | Feb'23 Actual | Feb'24 Actual | Mar'25 Estimate | Mar'26 Estimate | Mar'27 Estimate | Feb'28 Estimate | Mar'29 Estimate | Mar'30 Estimate | Mar'31 Estimate | Mar'32 Estimate | Mar'33 Estimate | Mar'34 Estimate | Mar'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 8,343.5 2.8% | 8,614.9 3.3% | 8,820.7 2.4% | 9,452.6 7.2% | 9,961.8 5.4% | 10,204.5 2.4% | 10,631.4 4.2% | 11,205.4 5.4% | 11,800.7 5.3% | 12,985.7 10.0% | 14,115.6 8.7% | 15,154.6 7.4% | 16,067.0 6.0% | 16,819.0 4.7% | 17,380.8 3.3% | 17,728.4 2.0% |
% margin | 2,154.5 25.8% | 2,791.1 32.4% | 2,331.7 26.4% | 2,842.9 30.1% | 3,169.7 31.8% | 1,432.8 14.0% | 1,492.8 14.0% | 1,573.4 14.0% | 1,657.0 14.0% | 1,823.4 14.0% | 1,982.0 14.0% | 2,127.9 14.0% | 2,256.0 14.0% | 2,361.6 14.0% | 2,440.5 14.0% | 2,489.3 14.0% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | (48.8) (0.6%) | 2,230.1 25.9% | 7.5 0.1% | (285.3) (3.0%) | 2,518.3 25.3% | 1,138.4 11.2% | 1,186.0 11.2% | 1,250.0 11.2% | 1,316.5 11.2% | 1,448.6 11.2% | 1,574.7 11.2% | 1,690.6 11.2% | 1,792.4 11.2% | 1,876.3 11.2% | 1,939.0 11.2% | 1,977.7 11.2% |
% of revenue | 431.5 5.2% | 382.4 4.4% | 424.3 4.8% | 476.3 5.0% | 429.2 4.3% | 481.6 4.7% | 501.7 4.7% | 528.8 4.7% | 556.9 4.7% | 612.8 4.7% | 666.1 4.7% | 715.2 4.7% | 758.2 4.7% | 793.7 4.7% | 820.2 4.7% | 836.6 4.7% |
% of revenue | (726.5) (8.7%) | (864.6) (10.0%) | (1,026.8) (11.6%) | (1,035.4) (11.0%) | (1,269.1) (12.7%) | (1,201.9) (11.8%) | (1,252.2) (11.8%) | (1,319.8) (11.8%) | (1,389.9) (11.8%) | (1,529.5) (11.8%) | (1,662.5) (11.8%) | (1,784.9) (11.8%) | (1,892.4) (11.8%) | (1,980.9) (11.8%) | (2,047.1) (11.8%) | (2,088.1) (11.8%) |
% of revenue | (85.1) (1.0%) | 148.3 1.7% | (185.6) (2.1%) | (274.5) (2.9%) | (301.5) (3.0%) | (273.3) (2.7%) | (284.7) (2.7%) | (300.1) (2.7%) | (316.0) (2.7%) | (347.8) (2.7%) | (378.0) (2.7%) | (405.9) (2.7%) | (430.3) (2.7%) | (450.5) (2.7%) | (465.5) (2.7%) | (474.8) (2.7%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (428.9) (5.1%) | 1,896.2 22.0% | (780.6) (8.8%) | (1,118.9) (11.8%) | 1,376.9 13.8% | 144.8 1.4% | 150.8 1.4% | 159.0 1.4% | 167.4 1.4% | 184.2 1.4% | 200.3 1.4% | 215.0 1.4% | 227.9 1.4% | 238.6 1.4% | 246.6 1.4% | 251.5 1.4% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 144.1 | 141.0 | 137.0 | 139.2 | 139.6 | 138.4 | 135.4 | 130.8 | 124.8 |
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STZ DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
1,230.4M
38.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
3,966.9M
Discounted TV
% share of EV
2,007.9M
62.0%
3,238.3M
Total Debt
12.6B
(9,159.4M)
Shares outstanding
183.5M
FX rate
1.0
(49.9)
128.5% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
STZ DCF Financials
Revenue
$9,961.8M -> $17.4B
5.7% CAGR
Operating Income
$3,169.7M -> $2,440.5M
(2.6%) CAGR
FCFF
$1,376.9M -> $246.6M
(15.8%) CAGR
STZ DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
7.0%
($48.0)
($46.0)
($45.0)
($44.0)
($44.0)
7.5%
($49.0)
($48.0)
($47.0)
($46.0)
($44.0)
8.3%
($51.0)
($51.0)
($50.0)
($49.0)
($48.0)
8.5%
($52.0)
($51.0)
($50.0)
($49.0)
($48.0)
9.0%
($53.0)
($52.0)
($52.0)
($51.0)
($50.0)
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
7.0%
(127.0%)
(126.0%)
(126.0%)
(125.0%)
(125.0%)
7.5%
(128.0%)
(127.0%)
(127.0%)
(126.0%)
(125.0%)
8.3%
(129.0%)
(129.0%)
(129.0%)
(128.0%)
(127.0%)
8.5%
(130.0%)
(129.0%)
(129.0%)
(128.0%)
(127.0%)
9.0%
(130.0%)
(130.0%)
(130.0%)
(129.0%)
(129.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for STZ
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
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Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Constellation Brands, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at ($49.9). This suggests it may be overvalued by (128.5%) compared to its current price of around $175.3, using a WACC of 8.3% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Constellation Brands, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.3%.
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Constellation Brands, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $3,238.3M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.