TME DCF Model
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 25,434.0 34.0% | 29,153.0 14.6% | 31,244.0 7.2% | 28,339.0 (9.3%) | 27,752.0 (2.1%) | 28,253.0 1.8% | 31,329.0 10.9% | 34,508.9 10.1% | 37,513.6 8.7% | 42,335.0 12.9% | 47,045.7 11.1% | 51,468.8 9.4% | 55,419.7 7.7% | 58,717.7 6.0% | 61,198.8 4.2% | 62,728.7 2.5% |
% margin | 4,622.0 18.2% | 4,710.0 16.2% | 2,752.0 8.8% | 4,443.0 15.7% | 6,059.0 21.8% | 4,770.3 16.9% | 5,289.6 16.9% | 5,826.5 16.9% | 6,333.8 16.9% | 7,147.9 16.9% | 7,943.2 16.9% | 8,690.0 16.9% | 9,357.1 16.9% | 9,913.9 16.9% | 10,332.8 16.9% | 10,591.1 16.9% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 4,048.8 15.9% | 4,246.3 14.6% | 2,436.0 7.8% | 3,900.5 13.8% | 5,232.1 18.9% | 4,119.2 14.6% | 4,567.7 14.6% | 5,031.3 14.6% | 5,469.4 14.6% | 6,172.3 14.6% | 6,859.2 14.6% | 7,504.0 14.6% | 8,080.1 14.6% | 8,560.9 14.6% | 8,922.6 14.6% | 9,145.7 14.6% |
% of revenue | 583.0 2.3% | 824.0 2.8% | 1,001.0 3.2% | 1,160.0 4.1% | 1,004.0 3.6% | 1,027.9 3.6% | 1,139.8 3.6% | 1,255.5 3.6% | 1,364.9 3.6% | 1,540.3 3.6% | 1,711.7 3.6% | 1,872.6 3.6% | 2,016.3 3.6% | 2,136.3 3.6% | 2,226.6 3.6% | 2,282.3 3.6% |
% of revenue | (286.0) (1.1%) | (501.0) (1.7%) | (2,758.0) (8.8%) | (1,053.0) (3.7%) | (1,164.0) (4.2%) | (1,576.3) (5.6%) | (1,747.9) (5.6%) | (1,925.3) (5.6%) | (2,092.9) (5.6%) | (2,361.9) (5.6%) | (2,624.7) (5.6%) | (2,871.5) (5.6%) | (3,091.9) (5.6%) | (3,275.9) (5.6%) | (3,414.3) (5.6%) | (3,499.7) (5.6%) |
% of revenue | 982.0 3.9% | (497.0) (1.7%) | 573.0 1.8% | 2,221.0 7.8% | 786.0 2.8% | 1,177.5 4.2% | 1,305.7 4.2% | 1,438.3 4.2% | 1,563.5 4.2% | 1,764.4 4.2% | 1,960.8 4.2% | 2,145.1 4.2% | 2,309.8 4.2% | 2,447.2 4.2% | 2,550.6 4.2% | 2,614.4 4.2% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 5,327.8 20.9% | 4,072.3 14.0% | 1,252.0 4.0% | 6,228.5 22.0% | 5,858.1 21.1% | 4,748.4 16.8% | 5,265.4 16.8% | 5,799.8 16.8% | 6,304.8 16.8% | 7,115.2 16.8% | 7,906.9 16.8% | 8,650.2 16.8% | 9,314.3 16.8% | 9,868.5 16.8% | 10,285.5 16.8% | 10,542.7 16.8% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 77.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 3,907.5 | 5,139.9 | 5,155.2 | 5,367.7 | 5,503.4 | 5,555.0 | 5,518.7 | 5,394.7 | 5,187.7 |
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FAQ
What is Tencent Music Entertainment Group DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 24, 2025, Tencent Music Entertainment Group's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $13.7. This suggests it may be overvalued by (3.3%) compared to its current price of around $14.2, using a WACC of 8.4% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Tencent Music Entertainment Group WACC?
As of Mar 24, 2025, Tencent Music Entertainment Group's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.4%.
What is Tencent Music Entertainment Group Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 24, 2025, Tencent Music Entertainment Group's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥137.1B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.