Last Price$224.2(1.6%)
Market Cap$90.6B
DCF value
$127.6
Overvalued (DCF value)
(43.1%)
Discount Rate
7.8%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
WM DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 15,218.0 (1.5%) | 17,931.0 17.8% | 19,698.0 9.9% | 20,426.0 3.7% | 22,063.0 8.0% | 25,642.0 16.2% | 27,082.6 5.6% | 28,065.4 3.6% | 30,771.0 9.6% | 32,467.0 5.5% | 34,066.5 4.9% | 35,545.3 4.3% | 36,880.3 3.8% | 38,049.7 3.2% | 39,033.4 2.6% | 39,814.0 2.0% |
% margin | 2,434.0 16.0% | 2,965.0 16.5% | 3,365.0 17.1% | 3,575.0 17.5% | 4,063.0 18.4% | 4,326.1 16.9% | 4,569.1 16.9% | 4,735.0 16.9% | 5,191.4 16.9% | 5,477.6 16.9% | 5,747.4 16.9% | 5,996.9 16.9% | 6,222.1 16.9% | 6,419.4 16.9% | 6,585.4 16.9% | 6,717.1 16.9% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 1,923.5 12.6% | 2,293.5 12.8% | 2,583.1 13.1% | 2,693.4 13.2% | 3,225.3 14.6% | 3,434.1 13.4% | 3,627.0 13.4% | 3,758.7 13.4% | 4,121.0 13.4% | 4,348.1 13.4% | 4,562.4 13.4% | 4,760.4 13.4% | 4,939.2 13.4% | 5,095.8 13.4% | 5,227.5 13.4% | 5,332.1 13.4% |
% of revenue | 1,774.0 11.7% | 2,110.0 11.8% | 2,150.0 10.9% | 2,071.0 10.1% | 2,267.0 10.3% | 2,677.8 10.4% | 2,828.2 10.4% | 2,930.9 10.4% | 3,213.4 10.4% | 3,390.5 10.4% | 3,557.6 10.4% | 3,712.0 10.4% | 3,851.4 10.4% | 3,973.5 10.4% | 4,076.2 10.4% | 4,157.8 10.4% |
% of revenue | (1,632.0) (10.7%) | (1,904.0) (10.6%) | (2,587.0) (13.1%) | (2,895.0) (14.2%) | (3,231.0) (14.6%) | (3,585.7) (14.0%) | (3,787.1) (14.0%) | (3,924.6) (14.0%) | (4,302.9) (14.0%) | (4,540.1) (14.0%) | (4,763.7) (14.0%) | (4,970.5) (14.0%) | (5,157.2) (14.0%) | (5,320.7) (14.0%) | (5,458.3) (14.0%) | (5,567.4) (14.0%) |
% of revenue | (327.0) (2.1%) | 126.0 0.7% | (145.0) (0.7%) | (251.0) (1.2%) | (31.0) (0.1%) | (180.0) (0.7%) | (190.1) (0.7%) | (197.0) (0.7%) | (216.0) (0.7%) | (227.9) (0.7%) | (239.1) (0.7%) | (249.5) (0.7%) | (258.8) (0.7%) | (267.0) (0.7%) | (273.9) (0.7%) | (279.4) (0.7%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 1,738.5 11.4% | 2,625.5 14.6% | 2,001.1 10.2% | 1,618.4 7.9% | 2,230.3 10.1% | 2,346.3 9.2% | 2,478.1 9.2% | 2,568.0 9.2% | 2,815.6 9.2% | 2,970.8 9.2% | 3,117.1 9.2% | 3,252.4 9.2% | 3,374.6 9.2% | 3,481.6 9.2% | 3,571.6 9.2% | 3,643.0 9.2% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,826.5 | 2,214.5 | 2,129.1 | 2,165.8 | 2,120.1 | 2,063.8 | 1,997.9 | 1,923.2 | 1,840.9 | 1,752.1 |
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WM DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
20.0B
39.3%
Terminal Value (TV)
63.0B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
30.9B
60.7%
Total Debt
0.0
51.5B
Shares outstanding
404.0M
FX rate
1.0
127.6
43.1% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
WM DCF Financials
Revenue
$22.1B -> $39.0B
5.9% CAGR
Operating Income
$4,063.0M -> $6,585.4M
4.9% CAGR
FCFF
$2,230.3M -> $3,571.6M
4.8% CAGR
WM DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
7.0%
$132.0
$139.0
$148.0
$158.0
$171.0
7.5%
$122.0
$127.0
$134.0
$142.0
$153.0
7.8%
$116.0
$121.0
$128.0
$135.0
$144.0
8.5%
$105.0
$109.0
$113.0
$119.0
$125.0
9.0%
$98.0
$102.0
$105.0
$110.0
$115.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
7.0%
(41.0%)
(38.0%)
(34.0%)
(30.0%)
(24.0%)
7.5%
(46.0%)
(43.0%)
(40.0%)
(37.0%)
(32.0%)
7.8%
(48.0%)
(46.0%)
(43.0%)
(40.0%)
(36.0%)
8.5%
(53.0%)
(51.0%)
(50.0%)
(47.0%)
(44.0%)
9.0%
(56.0%)
(55.0%)
(53.0%)
(51.0%)
(49.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for WM
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Waste Management, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Waste Management, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $127.6. This suggests it may be overvalued by (43.1%) compared to its current price of around $224.2, using a WACC of 7.8% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is Waste Management, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Waste Management, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 7.8%.
What is Waste Management, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Waste Management, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $50.9B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.