ATAT DCF Model
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 1,566.6 (0.0%) | 2,147.6 37.1% | 2,263.0 5.4% | 4,666.0 106.2% | 7,141.0 53.0% | 9,125.4 27.8% | 11,111.6 21.8% | 15,778.8 42.0% | 21,515.7 36.4% | 28,124.4 30.7% | 35,175.9 25.1% | 42,010.4 19.4% | 47,802.1 13.8% | 51,694.6 8.1% | 52,987.0 2.5% |
% margin | 63.3 4.0% | 196.1 9.1% | 165.0 7.3% | 924.0 19.8% | 683.8 9.6% | 873.9 9.6% | 1,064.1 9.6% | 1,511.0 9.6% | 2,060.4 9.6% | 2,693.3 9.6% | 3,368.6 9.6% | 4,023.0 9.6% | 4,577.7 9.6% | 4,950.4 9.6% | 5,074.2 9.6% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 31.7 2.0% | 134.3 6.3% | 87.8 3.9% | 695.4 14.9% | 514.6 7.2% | 657.6 7.2% | 800.8 7.2% | 1,137.1 7.2% | 1,550.5 7.2% | 2,026.8 7.2% | 2,534.9 7.2% | 3,027.5 7.2% | 3,444.8 7.2% | 3,725.4 7.2% | 3,818.5 7.2% |
% of revenue | 85.0 5.4% | 93.9 4.4% | 88.6 3.9% | 85.0 1.8% | 240.6 3.4% | 307.5 3.4% | 374.4 3.4% | 531.7 3.4% | 725.0 3.4% | 947.7 3.4% | 1,185.3 3.4% | 1,415.5 3.4% | 1,610.7 3.4% | 1,741.9 3.4% | 1,785.4 3.4% |
% of revenue | (114.0) (7.3%) | (66.0) (3.1%) | (39.2) (1.7%) | (41.7) (0.9%) | (135.7) (1.9%) | (173.4) (1.9%) | (211.1) (1.9%) | (299.8) (1.9%) | (408.8) (1.9%) | (534.3) (1.9%) | (668.3) (1.9%) | (798.1) (1.9%) | (908.2) (1.9%) | (982.1) (1.9%) | (1,006.7) (1.9%) |
% of revenue | 38.1 2.4% | 197.3 9.2% | (12.7) (0.6%) | 727.2 15.6% | 576.3 8.1% | 736.5 8.1% | 896.7 8.1% | 1,273.4 8.1% | 1,736.4 8.1% | 2,269.7 8.1% | 2,838.8 8.1% | 3,390.4 8.1% | 3,857.8 8.1% | 4,171.9 8.1% | 4,276.2 8.1% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 40.8 2.6% | 359.6 16.7% | 124.4 5.5% | 1,465.9 31.4% | 1,195.9 16.7% | 1,528.2 16.7% | 1,860.8 16.7% | 2,642.4 16.7% | 3,603.1 16.7% | 4,709.8 16.7% | 5,890.7 16.7% | 7,035.3 16.7% | 8,005.2 16.7% | 8,657.0 16.7% | 8,873.5 16.7% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | |||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,188.2 | 1,656.6 | 2,177.0 | 2,747.2 | 3,323.2 | 3,846.4 | 4,251.2 | 4,476.6 | 4,480.1 |
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FAQ
What is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $98.4. This suggests it may be undervalued by 224.0% compared to its current price of around $30.4, using a WACC of 8.1% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.1%.
What is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥93.8B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.