Last Price$48.80.7%
Market Cap$63.1B
DCF value
$157.9
Undervalued (DCF value)
223.3%
Discount Rate
6.5%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
7/10
Good
BHP DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Jun'20 Actual | Jun'21 Actual | Jun'22 Actual | Jun'23 Actual | Jun'24 Actual | Jun'25 Estimate | Jun'26 Estimate | Jun'27 Estimate | Jun'28 Estimate | Jun'29 Estimate | Jun'30 Estimate | Jun'31 Estimate | Jun'32 Estimate | Jun'33 Estimate | Jun'34 Estimate | Jun'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 42,931.0 (3.1%) | 56,921.0 32.6% | 65,098.0 14.4% | 53,817.0 (17.3%) | 56,027.0 4.1% | 51,182.1 (8.6%) | 50,418.1 (1.5%) | 48,430.6 (3.9%) | 50,388.1 4.0% | 52,292.9 3.8% | 54,114.4 3.5% | 55,838.9 3.2% | 57,452.7 2.9% | 58,942.6 2.6% | 60,296.4 2.3% | 61,502.3 2.0% |
% margin | 15,720.0 36.6% | 32,304.0 56.8% | 33,021.0 50.7% | 22,060.0 41.0% | 17,537.0 31.3% | 20,421.4 39.9% | 20,116.5 39.9% | 19,323.5 39.9% | 20,104.6 39.9% | 20,864.6 39.9% | 21,591.4 39.9% | 22,279.4 39.9% | 22,923.3 39.9% | 23,517.8 39.9% | 24,057.9 39.9% | 24,539.1 39.9% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 10,166.7 23.7% | 18,142.9 31.9% | 22,105.2 34.0% | 14,633.6 27.2% | 10,491.8 18.7% | 12,217.5 23.9% | 12,035.1 23.9% | 11,560.7 23.9% | 12,027.9 23.9% | 12,482.6 23.9% | 12,917.4 23.9% | 13,329.1 23.9% | 13,714.3 23.9% | 14,069.9 23.9% | 14,393.1 23.9% | 14,680.9 23.9% |
% of revenue | 4,667.0 10.9% | 5,084.0 8.9% | 5,683.0 8.7% | 5,061.0 9.4% | 5,295.0 9.5% | 4,706.2 9.2% | 4,635.9 9.2% | 4,453.2 9.2% | 4,633.2 9.2% | 4,808.3 9.2% | 4,975.8 9.2% | 5,134.4 9.2% | 5,282.7 9.2% | 5,419.7 9.2% | 5,544.2 9.2% | 5,655.1 9.2% |
% of revenue | (7,640.0) (17.8%) | (5,804.0) (10.2%) | (6,111.0) (9.4%) | (7,083.0) (13.2%) | (8,816.0) (15.7%) | (6,531.5) (12.8%) | (6,434.0) (12.8%) | (6,180.4) (12.8%) | (6,430.2) (12.8%) | (6,673.3) (12.8%) | (6,905.7) (12.8%) | (7,125.8) (12.8%) | (7,331.7) (12.8%) | (7,521.9) (12.8%) | (7,694.6) (12.8%) | (7,848.5) (12.8%) |
% of revenue | 9.0 0.0% | (1,159.0) (2.0%) | (1,089.0) (1.7%) | (132.0) (0.2%) | (1,289.0) (2.3%) | (719.8) (1.4%) | (709.0) (1.4%) | (681.1) (1.4%) | (708.6) (1.4%) | (735.4) (1.4%) | (761.0) (1.4%) | (785.2) (1.4%) | (807.9) (1.4%) | (828.9) (1.4%) | (847.9) (1.4%) | (864.9) (1.4%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 7,202.7 16.8% | 16,263.9 28.6% | 20,588.2 31.6% | 12,479.6 23.2% | 5,681.8 10.1% | 9,672.4 18.9% | 9,528.0 18.9% | 9,152.4 18.9% | 9,522.3 18.9% | 9,882.3 18.9% | 10,226.5 18.9% | 10,552.4 18.9% | 10,857.4 18.9% | 11,138.9 18.9% | 11,394.8 18.9% | 11,622.6 18.9% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 32.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 3,056.0 | 8,671.6 | 7,822.9 | 7,643.8 | 7,450.1 | 7,240.4 | 7,016.5 | 6,780.0 | 6,532.6 | 6,275.9 |
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BHP DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
68.5B
32.4%
Terminal Value (TV)
259.5B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
142.9B
67.6%
211.4B
Total Debt
20.2B
203.9B
Shares outstanding
1,291.1M
FX rate
1.0
157.9
223.3% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
BHP DCF Financials
Revenue
$56.0B -> $60.3B
0.7% CAGR
Operating Income
$17.5B -> $24.1B
3.2% CAGR
FCFF
$5,681.8M -> $11.4B
7.2% CAGR
BHP DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
5.0%
$184.0
$184.0
$184.0
$184.0
$184.0
5.5%
$170.0
$179.0
$179.0
$179.0
$179.0
6.5%
$138.0
$147.0
$158.0
$171.0
$171.0
6.5%
$137.0
$146.0
$157.0
$171.0
$171.0
7.0%
$125.0
$132.0
$141.0
$151.0
$164.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
5.0%
277.0%
277.0%
277.0%
277.0%
277.0%
5.5%
248.0%
267.0%
267.0%
267.0%
267.0%
6.5%
183.0%
201.0%
224.0%
250.0%
250.0%
6.5%
181.0%
199.0%
221.0%
250.0%
250.0%
7.0%
156.0%
170.0%
189.0%
209.0%
236.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for BHP
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is BHP Group Limited DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, BHP Group Limited's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $157.9. This suggests it may be undervalued by 223.3% compared to its current price of around $48.8, using a WACC of 6.5% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is BHP Group Limited WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, BHP Group Limited's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 6.5%.
What is BHP Group Limited Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, BHP Group Limited's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $211.4B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.