Last Price$86.0(2.7%)
Market Cap$34.9B
DCF value
$38.9
Overvalued (DCF value)
(54.8%)
Discount Rate
8.9%
Long-Term Growth Rate
3.0%
Stock quality
7/10
Great
DXCM DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 1,926.7 30.5% | 2,448.5 27.1% | 2,909.8 18.8% | 3,622.3 24.5% | 4,033.0 11.3% | 4,608.4 14.3% | 5,305.0 15.1% | 6,261.8 18.0% | 7,150.3 14.2% | 8,050.6 12.6% | 8,935.5 11.0% | 9,774.9 9.4% | 10,537.0 7.8% | 11,189.9 6.2% | 11,704.5 4.6% | 12,055.6 3.0% |
% margin | 299.5 15.5% | 175.4 7.2% | 391.2 13.4% | 597.7 16.5% | 600.0 14.9% | 670.2 14.5% | 771.5 14.5% | 910.7 14.5% | 1,039.9 14.5% | 1,170.8 14.5% | 1,299.5 14.5% | 1,421.6 14.5% | 1,532.4 14.5% | 1,627.4 14.5% | 1,702.2 14.5% | 1,753.3 14.5% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 657.0 34.1% | 156.0 6.4% | 341.5 11.7% | 455.6 12.6% | 487.6 12.1% | 544.7 11.8% | 627.0 11.8% | 740.1 11.8% | 845.1 11.8% | 951.5 11.8% | 1,056.1 11.8% | 1,155.3 11.8% | 1,245.4 11.8% | 1,322.6 11.8% | 1,383.4 11.8% | 1,424.9 11.8% |
% of revenue | 67.1 3.5% | 101.9 4.2% | 155.9 5.4% | 186.0 5.1% | 213.2 5.3% | 242.4 5.3% | 279.0 5.3% | 329.3 5.3% | 376.1 5.3% | 423.4 5.3% | 470.0 5.3% | 514.1 5.3% | 554.2 5.3% | 588.6 5.3% | 615.6 5.3% | 634.1 5.3% |
% of revenue | (199.0) (10.3%) | (389.2) (15.9%) | (364.8) (12.5%) | (236.6) (6.5%) | 0.0 0.0% | (292.9) (6.4%) | (337.2) (6.4%) | (398.0) (6.4%) | (454.5) (6.4%) | (511.7) (6.4%) | (568.0) (6.4%) | (621.3) (6.4%) | (669.8) (6.4%) | (711.3) (6.4%) | (744.0) (6.4%) | (766.3) (6.4%) |
% of revenue | (20.8) (1.1%) | (132.0) (5.4%) | 27.7 1.0% | 3.2 0.1% | 0.0 0.0% | 16.0 0.3% | 18.4 0.3% | 21.7 0.3% | 24.8 0.3% | 27.9 0.3% | 31.0 0.3% | 33.9 0.3% | 36.5 0.3% | 38.8 0.3% | 40.6 0.3% | 41.8 0.3% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 504.3 26.2% | (263.3) (10.8%) | 160.3 5.5% | 408.2 11.3% | 700.8 17.4% | 510.1 11.1% | 587.2 11.1% | 693.1 11.1% | 791.5 11.1% | 891.2 11.1% | 989.1 11.1% | 1,082.0 11.1% | 1,166.4 11.1% | 1,238.7 11.1% | 1,295.6 11.1% | 1,334.5 11.1% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 405.8 | 516.7 | 560.0 | 587.1 | 606.9 | 618.5 | 621.3 | 614.9 | 599.6 | 575.9 |
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DXCM DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
5,706.6M
36.3%
Terminal Value (TV)
22.6B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
10.0B
63.7%
2,579.4M
Total Debt
2,528.9M
15.8B
Shares outstanding
406.2M
FX rate
1.0
38.9
54.8% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
DXCM DCF Financials
Revenue
$4,033.0M -> $11.7B
11.2% CAGR
Operating Income
$600.0M -> $1,702.2M
11.0% CAGR
FCFF
$700.8M -> $1,295.6M
6.3% CAGR
DXCM DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
WACC
8.0%
$41.0
$44.0
$46.0
$49.0
$49.0
8.5%
$38.0
$40.0
$42.0
$45.0
$48.0
8.9%
$35.0
$37.0
$39.0
$41.0
$44.0
9.5%
$32.0
$34.0
$35.0
$37.0
$39.0
10.0%
$30.0
$31.0
$32.0
$34.0
$36.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
WACC
8.0%
(52.0%)
(49.0%)
(47.0%)
(43.0%)
(43.0%)
8.5%
(56.0%)
(53.0%)
(51.0%)
(48.0%)
(44.0%)
8.9%
(59.0%)
(57.0%)
(55.0%)
(52.0%)
(49.0%)
9.5%
(63.0%)
(60.0%)
(59.0%)
(57.0%)
(55.0%)
10.0%
(65.0%)
(64.0%)
(63.0%)
(60.0%)
(58.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for DXCM
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is DexCom, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, DexCom, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $38.9. This suggests it may be overvalued by (54.8%) compared to its current price of around $86.0, using a WACC of 8.9% and growth rates of 3.0%.
What is DexCom, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, DexCom, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.9%.
What is DexCom, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, DexCom, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $15.7B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.