Last Price$274.53.5%
Market Cap$81.3B
DCF value
$145.9
Overvalued (DCF value)
(46.9%)
Discount Rate
8.6%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
ITW DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 12,574.0 (10.9%) | 14,455.0 15.0% | 15,932.0 10.2% | 16,107.0 1.1% | 15,898.0 (1.3%) | 16,234.1 2.1% | 16,869.9 3.9% | 17,594.3 4.3% | 18,174.2 3.3% | 18,739.6 3.1% | 19,287.9 2.9% | 19,816.5 2.7% | 20,322.9 2.6% | 20,804.6 2.4% | 21,259.2 2.2% | 21,684.4 2.0% |
% margin | 2,882.0 22.9% | 3,477.0 24.1% | 3,790.0 23.8% | 4,040.0 25.1% | 4,264.0 26.8% | 3,927.1 24.2% | 4,080.9 24.2% | 4,256.1 24.2% | 4,396.4 24.2% | 4,533.2 24.2% | 4,665.8 24.2% | 4,793.7 24.2% | 4,916.2 24.2% | 5,032.7 24.2% | 5,142.7 24.2% | 5,245.5 24.2% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 2,247.8 17.9% | 2,816.3 19.5% | 2,992.9 18.8% | 3,124.8 19.4% | 3,363.4 21.2% | 3,097.6 19.1% | 3,218.9 19.1% | 3,357.1 19.1% | 3,467.8 19.1% | 3,575.7 19.1% | 3,680.3 19.1% | 3,781.2 19.1% | 3,877.8 19.1% | 3,969.7 19.1% | 4,056.5 19.1% | 4,137.6 19.1% |
% of revenue | 427.0 3.4% | 410.0 2.8% | 410.0 2.6% | 395.0 2.5% | 402.0 2.5% | 408.8 2.5% | 424.8 2.5% | 443.0 2.5% | 457.7 2.5% | 471.9 2.5% | 485.7 2.5% | 499.0 2.5% | 511.8 2.5% | 523.9 2.5% | 535.3 2.5% | 546.0 2.5% |
% of revenue | (236.0) (1.9%) | (296.0) (2.0%) | (412.0) (2.6%) | (455.0) (2.8%) | 0.0 0.0% | (292.8) (1.8%) | (304.3) (1.8%) | (317.3) (1.8%) | (327.8) (1.8%) | (338.0) (1.8%) | (347.9) (1.8%) | (357.4) (1.8%) | (366.5) (1.8%) | (375.2) (1.8%) | (383.4) (1.8%) | (391.1) (1.8%) |
% of revenue | 249.0 2.0% | (438.0) (3.0%) | (816.0) (5.1%) | 210.0 1.3% | (18.0) (0.1%) | (212.7) (1.3%) | (221.1) (1.3%) | (230.6) (1.3%) | (238.2) (1.3%) | (245.6) (1.3%) | (252.7) (1.3%) | (259.7) (1.3%) | (266.3) (1.3%) | (272.6) (1.3%) | (278.6) (1.3%) | (284.2) (1.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 2,687.8 21.4% | 2,492.3 17.2% | 2,174.9 13.7% | 3,274.8 20.3% | 3,747.4 23.6% | 3,000.9 18.5% | 3,118.4 18.5% | 3,252.3 18.5% | 3,359.5 18.5% | 3,464.0 18.5% | 3,565.4 18.5% | 3,663.1 18.5% | 3,756.7 18.5% | 3,845.7 18.5% | 3,929.8 18.5% | 4,008.4 18.5% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 81.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.46 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 2,358.6 | 2,754.4 | 2,644.5 | 2,514.7 | 2,387.0 | 2,261.7 | 2,139.1 | 2,019.5 | 1,903.2 | 1,790.3 |
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ITW DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 07, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
22.8B
45.3%
Terminal Value (TV)
60.5B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
27.6B
54.7%
Total Debt
8,078.0M
43.2B
Shares outstanding
296.1M
FX rate
1.0
145.9
46.9% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
ITW DCF Financials
Revenue
$15.9B -> $21.3B
2.9% CAGR
Operating Income
$4,264.0M -> $5,142.7M
1.9% CAGR
FCFF
$3,747.4M -> $3,929.8M
0.5% CAGR
ITW DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
8.0%
$148.0
$155.0
$164.0
$173.0
$185.0
8.5%
$136.0
$142.0
$149.0
$157.0
$167.0
8.6%
$134.0
$139.0
$146.0
$153.0
$162.0
9.5%
$117.0
$121.0
$126.0
$132.0
$138.0
10.0%
$109.0
$113.0
$117.0
$121.0
$127.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
8.0%
(46.0%)
(44.0%)
(40.0%)
(37.0%)
(33.0%)
8.5%
(50.0%)
(48.0%)
(46.0%)
(43.0%)
(39.0%)
8.6%
(51.0%)
(49.0%)
(47.0%)
(44.0%)
(41.0%)
9.5%
(57.0%)
(56.0%)
(54.0%)
(52.0%)
(50.0%)
10.0%
(60.0%)
(59.0%)
(57.0%)
(56.0%)
(54.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for ITW
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Illinois Tool Works Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 07, 2025, Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $145.9. This suggests it may be overvalued by (46.9%) compared to its current price of around $274.5, using a WACC of 8.6% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is Illinois Tool Works Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 07, 2025, Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.6%.
What is Illinois Tool Works Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 07, 2025, Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $50.3B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.