Last Price$81.5(1.8%)
Market Cap$12.9B
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
5.2%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
KMX DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Feb'20 Actual | Feb'21 Actual | Feb'22 Actual | Feb'23 Actual | Feb'24 Actual | Mar'25 Estimate | Mar'26 Estimate | Mar'27 Estimate | Mar'28 Estimate | Mar'29 Estimate | Mar'30 Estimate | Mar'31 Estimate | Mar'32 Estimate | Mar'33 Estimate | Mar'34 Estimate | Mar'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 20,320.0 11.8% | 18,950.1 (6.7%) | 31,900.4 68.3% | 29,684.9 (6.9%) | 26,536.0 (10.6%) | 26,236.3 (1.1%) | 27,073.0 3.2% | 28,612.1 5.7% | 30,124.7 5.3% | 31,597.4 4.9% | 33,016.2 4.5% | 34,367.4 4.1% | 35,637.0 3.7% | 36,811.7 3.3% | 37,878.6 2.9% | 38,825.5 2.5% |
% margin | 1,244.0 6.1% | 1,051.4 5.5% | 1,815.2 5.7% | 1,067.5 3.6% | 942.2 3.6% | 1,152.5 4.4% | 1,189.3 4.4% | 1,256.9 4.4% | 1,323.3 4.4% | 1,388.0 4.4% | 1,450.3 4.4% | 1,509.7 4.4% | 1,565.5 4.4% | 1,617.1 4.4% | 1,663.9 4.4% | 1,705.5 4.4% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 952.0 4.7% | 813.6 4.3% | 1,400.4 4.4% | 812.6 2.7% | 703.7 2.7% | 860.8 3.3% | 888.3 3.3% | 938.8 3.3% | 988.4 3.3% | 1,036.7 3.3% | 1,083.3 3.3% | 1,127.6 3.3% | 1,169.2 3.3% | 1,207.8 3.3% | 1,242.8 3.3% | 1,273.8 3.3% |
% of revenue | 215.8 1.1% | 242.2 1.3% | 273.2 0.9% | 265.2 0.9% | 260.4 1.0% | 238.9 0.9% | 246.5 0.9% | 260.5 0.9% | 274.3 0.9% | 287.7 0.9% | 300.6 0.9% | 312.9 0.9% | 324.4 0.9% | 335.1 0.9% | 344.8 0.9% | 353.5 0.9% |
% of revenue | (331.9) (1.6%) | (164.5) (0.9%) | (308.5) (1.0%) | (422.7) (1.4%) | (465.3) (1.8%) | (362.5) (1.4%) | (374.0) (1.4%) | (395.3) (1.4%) | (416.2) (1.4%) | (436.5) (1.4%) | (456.1) (1.4%) | (474.8) (1.4%) | (492.3) (1.4%) | (508.6) (1.4%) | (523.3) (1.4%) | (536.4) (1.4%) |
% of revenue | (1,727.1) (8.5%) | (639.0) (3.4%) | (4,335.6) (13.6%) | 34.4 0.1% | (796.0) (3.0%) | (1,440.8) (5.5%) | (1,486.8) (5.5%) | (1,571.3) (5.5%) | (1,654.3) (5.5%) | (1,735.2) (5.5%) | (1,813.1) (5.5%) | (1,887.3) (5.5%) | (1,957.1) (5.5%) | (2,021.6) (5.5%) | (2,080.2) (5.5%) | (2,132.2) (5.5%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (891.2) (4.4%) | 252.3 1.3% | (2,970.6) (9.3%) | 689.5 2.3% | (297.2) (1.1%) | (703.6) (2.7%) | (726.1) (2.7%) | (767.3) (2.7%) | (807.9) (2.7%) | (847.4) (2.7%) | (885.4) (2.7%) | (921.7) (2.7%) | (955.7) (2.7%) | (987.2) (2.7%) | (1,015.8) (2.7%) | (1,041.2) (2.7%) |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) |
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KMX DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
N/A
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
N/A
Discounted TV
% share of EV
N/A
70.0%
Total Debt
19.5B
N/A
Shares outstanding
158.7M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
KMX DCF Financials
Revenue
$26.5B -> $37.9B
3.6% CAGR
Operating Income
$942.2M -> $1,663.9M
5.9% CAGR
FCFF
($297.2M) -> ($1,015.8M)
13.1% CAGR
KMX DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
4.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
4.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
5.2%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
5.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
6.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
4.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
4.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
5.2%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
5.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
6.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
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FAQ
What is CarMax, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, CarMax, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $81.5, using a WACC of 5.2% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is CarMax, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, CarMax, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 5.2%.
What is CarMax, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, CarMax, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $0.0. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.