Last Price$77.52.1%
Market Cap$25.2B
DCF value
$237.5
Undervalued (DCF value)
206.5%
Discount Rate
6.4%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
5/10
Good
LYB DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 27,753.0 (20.1%) | 46,173.0 66.4% | 50,451.0 9.3% | 41,107.0 (18.5%) | 40,302.0 (2.0%) | 32,670.1 (18.9%) | 33,755.7 3.3% | 35,049.2 3.8% | 36,311.9 3.6% | 37,537.1 3.4% | 38,717.6 3.1% | 39,846.5 2.9% | 40,917.2 2.7% | 41,922.9 2.5% | 42,857.4 2.2% | 43,714.5 2.0% |
% margin | 2,494.0 9.0% | 6,773.0 14.7% | 5,101.0 10.1% | 3,053.0 7.4% | 1,817.0 4.5% | 3,557.7 10.9% | 3,675.9 10.9% | 3,816.8 10.9% | 3,954.3 10.9% | 4,087.7 10.9% | 4,216.3 10.9% | 4,339.2 10.9% | 4,455.8 10.9% | 4,565.3 10.9% | 4,667.1 10.9% | 4,760.4 10.9% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 2,571.4 9.3% | 5,612.2 12.2% | 4,159.0 8.2% | 2,470.8 6.0% | 1,577.4 3.9% | 3,088.6 9.5% | 3,191.2 9.5% | 3,313.5 9.5% | 3,432.9 9.5% | 3,548.7 9.5% | 3,660.3 9.5% | 3,767.0 9.5% | 3,868.2 9.5% | 3,963.3 9.5% | 4,051.6 9.5% | 4,132.7 9.5% |
% of revenue | 1,385.0 5.0% | 1,393.0 3.0% | 1,267.0 2.5% | 1,534.0 3.7% | 1,522.0 3.8% | 1,091.1 3.3% | 1,127.4 3.3% | 1,170.6 3.3% | 1,212.8 3.3% | 1,253.7 3.3% | 1,293.1 3.3% | 1,330.8 3.3% | 1,366.6 3.3% | 1,400.2 3.3% | 1,431.4 3.3% | 1,460.0 3.3% |
% of revenue | (1,947.0) (7.0%) | (1,959.0) (4.2%) | (1,890.0) (3.7%) | (1,531.0) (3.7%) | 0.0 0.0% | (813.6) (2.5%) | (840.6) (2.5%) | (872.8) (2.5%) | (904.2) (2.5%) | (934.8) (2.5%) | (964.1) (2.5%) | (992.3) (2.5%) | (1,018.9) (2.5%) | (1,044.0) (2.5%) | (1,067.2) (2.5%) | (1,088.6) (2.5%) |
% of revenue | 311.0 1.1% | (960.0) (2.1%) | 450.0 0.9% | 269.0 0.7% | 30.0 0.1% | 176.5 0.5% | 182.4 0.5% | 189.4 0.5% | 196.2 0.5% | 202.8 0.5% | 209.2 0.5% | 215.3 0.5% | 221.1 0.5% | 226.5 0.5% | 231.5 0.5% | 236.2 0.5% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 2,320.4 8.4% | 4,086.2 8.8% | 3,986.0 7.9% | 2,742.8 6.7% | 3,129.4 7.8% | 3,542.6 10.8% | 3,660.4 10.8% | 3,800.6 10.8% | 3,937.6 10.8% | 4,070.4 10.8% | 4,198.4 10.8% | 4,320.8 10.8% | 4,436.9 10.8% | 4,546.0 10.8% | 4,647.3 10.8% | 4,740.3 10.8% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 81.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 2,813.6 | 3,335.9 | 3,255.8 | 3,170.7 | 3,081.0 | 2,987.1 | 2,889.7 | 2,789.3 | 2,686.4 | 2,581.4 |
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LYB DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 07, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
29.6B
33.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
108.1B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
60.1B
67.0%
Total Debt
12.4B
77.2B
Shares outstanding
325.0M
FX rate
1.0
237.5
206.5% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
LYB DCF Financials
Revenue
$40.3B -> $42.9B
0.6% CAGR
Operating Income
$1,817.0M -> $4,667.1M
9.9% CAGR
FCFF
$3,129.4M -> $4,647.3M
4.0% CAGR
LYB DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
5.0%
$285.0
$285.0
$285.0
$285.0
$285.0
5.5%
$251.0
$276.0
$278.0
$278.0
$278.0
6.4%
$203.0
$219.0
$238.0
$261.0
$265.0
6.5%
$198.0
$213.0
$230.0
$253.0
$264.0
7.0%
$178.0
$190.0
$204.0
$221.0
$242.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
5.0%
268.0%
268.0%
268.0%
268.0%
268.0%
5.5%
224.0%
256.0%
259.0%
259.0%
259.0%
6.4%
162.0%
183.0%
207.0%
237.0%
242.0%
6.5%
155.0%
175.0%
197.0%
226.0%
241.0%
7.0%
130.0%
145.0%
163.0%
185.0%
212.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for LYB
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 07, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $237.5. This suggests it may be undervalued by 206.5% compared to its current price of around $77.5, using a WACC of 6.4% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. WACC?
As of Mar 07, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 6.4%.
What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 07, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $89.6B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.