Last Price$4.55.4%
Market Cap$9,186.6M
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
8.3%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
5/10
Good
NIO DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 7,824.9 58.0% | 16,257.9 107.8% | 36,136.4 122.3% | 49,268.6 36.3% | 55,617.9 12.9% | 67,423.2 21.2% | 99,727.9 47.9% | 127,034.6 27.4% | 108,241.4 (14.8%) | 176,378.9 62.9% | 269,638.6 52.9% | 385,043.0 42.8% | 511,047.5 32.7% | 626,799.0 22.6% | 705,618.4 12.6% | 723,258.9 2.5% |
% margin | (11,079.2) (141.6%) | (4,607.6) (28.3%) | (4,496.3) (12.4%) | (15,640.7) (31.7%) | (22,655.2) (40.7%) | (28,226.4) (41.9%) | (41,750.6) (41.9%) | (53,182.4) (41.9%) | (45,314.8) (41.9%) | (73,840.2) (41.9%) | (112,882.9) (41.9%) | (161,196.4) (41.9%) | (213,947.6) (41.9%) | (262,406.3) (41.9%) | (295,403.7) (41.9%) | (302,788.8) (41.9%) |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | (11,086.9) (141.7%) | (4,613.2) (28.4%) | (4,544.1) (12.6%) | (15,700.6) (31.9%) | (22,944.0) (41.3%) | (28,586.3) (42.4%) | (42,282.9) (42.4%) | (53,860.4) (42.4%) | (45,892.5) (42.4%) | (74,781.6) (42.4%) | (114,322.0) (42.4%) | (163,251.5) (42.4%) | (216,675.2) (42.4%) | (265,751.8) (42.4%) | (299,169.9) (42.4%) | (306,649.2) (42.4%) |
% of revenue | 1,521.0 19.4% | 1,545.7 9.5% | 2,351.9 6.5% | 3,994.1 8.1% | 4,907.4 8.8% | 5,267.7 7.8% | 7,791.6 7.8% | 9,925.0 7.8% | 8,456.8 7.8% | 13,780.3 7.8% | 21,066.5 7.8% | 30,082.9 7.8% | 39,927.5 7.8% | 48,971.0 7.8% | 55,129.1 7.8% | 56,507.3 7.8% |
% of revenue | (1,706.8) (21.8%) | (1,127.7) (6.9%) | (4,078.8) (11.3%) | (6,972.9) (14.2%) | (14,340.8) (25.8%) | (11,512.4) (17.1%) | (17,028.3) (17.1%) | (21,690.9) (17.1%) | (18,482.0) (17.1%) | (30,116.3) (17.1%) | (46,040.2) (17.1%) | (65,745.2) (17.1%) | (87,260.2) (17.1%) | (107,024.5) (17.1%) | (120,482.7) (17.1%) | (123,494.8) (17.1%) |
% of revenue | 436.8 5.6% | 4,829.9 29.7% | 2,692.7 7.5% | 4,444.0 9.0% | 13,085.4 23.5% | 8,989.5 13.3% | 13,296.7 13.3% | 16,937.5 13.3% | 14,431.8 13.3% | 23,516.5 13.3% | 35,950.8 13.3% | 51,337.6 13.3% | 68,137.7 13.3% | 83,570.8 13.3% | 94,079.8 13.3% | 96,431.8 13.3% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (10,835.9) (138.5%) | 634.7 3.9% | (3,578.2) (9.9%) | (14,235.4) (28.9%) | (19,291.9) (34.7%) | (25,841.4) (38.3%) | (38,222.9) (38.3%) | (48,688.8) (38.3%) | (41,485.9) (38.3%) | (67,601.1) (38.3%) | (103,344.9) (38.3%) | (147,576.2) (38.3%) | (195,870.2) (38.3%) | (240,234.5) (38.3%) | (270,443.8) (38.3%) | (277,204.9) (38.3%) |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 81.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) |
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NIO DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 07, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
N/A
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
N/A
Discounted TV
% share of EV
N/A
70.0%
Total Debt
50.4B
N/A
Shares outstanding
2,055.2M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
NIO DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥55.6B -> CN¥705.6B
28.9% CAGR
Operating Income
(CN¥22.7B) -> (CN¥295.4B)
29.3% CAGR
FCFF
(CN¥19.3B) -> (CN¥270.4B)
30.2% CAGR
NIO DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
7.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
7.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
8.3%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
8.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
9.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
7.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
7.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
8.3%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
8.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
9.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for NIO
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Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is NIO Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 07, 2025, NIO Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $4.5, using a WACC of 8.3% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is NIO Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 07, 2025, NIO Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.3%.
What is NIO Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 07, 2025, NIO Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥0.0. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.