Last Price$112.11.4%
Market Cap$23.9B
DCF value
$36.9
Overvalued (DCF value)
(67.1%)
Discount Rate
7.4%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
4/10
Good
SJM DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Apr'20 Actual | Apr'21 Actual | Apr'22 Actual | Apr'23 Actual | Apr'24 Actual | Apr'25 Estimate | Apr'26 Estimate | Apr'27 Estimate | Apr'28 Estimate | Apr'29 Estimate | Apr'30 Estimate | Apr'31 Estimate | Apr'32 Estimate | Apr'33 Estimate | Apr'34 Estimate | Apr'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 7,801.0 (0.5%) | 8,002.7 2.6% | 7,998.9 (0.0%) | 8,529.2 6.6% | 8,178.7 (4.1%) | 8,842.9 8.1% | 8,956.0 1.3% | 9,093.6 1.5% | 9,102.0 0.1% | 9,210.7 1.2% | 9,333.1 1.3% | 9,469.6 1.5% | 9,620.9 1.6% | 9,787.5 1.7% | 9,970.1 1.9% | 10,169.5 2.0% |
% margin | 1,223.1 15.7% | 1,386.8 17.3% | 1,023.8 12.8% | 1,166.0 13.7% | 1,305.8 16.0% | 1,368.2 15.5% | 1,385.7 15.5% | 1,407.0 15.5% | 1,408.3 15.5% | 1,425.1 15.5% | 1,444.0 15.5% | 1,465.1 15.5% | 1,488.5 15.5% | 1,514.3 15.5% | 1,542.6 15.5% | 1,573.4 15.5% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 928.6 11.9% | 1,037.0 13.0% | 766.5 9.6% | 11,571.3 135.7% | 975.0 11.9% | 1,021.6 11.6% | 1,034.7 11.6% | 1,050.6 11.6% | 1,051.5 11.6% | 1,064.1 11.6% | 1,078.2 11.6% | 1,094.0 11.6% | 1,111.5 11.6% | 1,130.7 11.6% | 1,151.8 11.6% | 1,174.9 11.6% |
% of revenue | 446.5 5.7% | 452.5 5.7% | 459.1 5.7% | 431.0 5.1% | 430.8 5.3% | 473.4 5.4% | 479.4 5.4% | 486.8 5.4% | 487.3 5.4% | 493.1 5.4% | 499.6 5.4% | 506.9 5.4% | 515.0 5.4% | 524.0 5.4% | 533.7 5.4% | 544.4 5.4% |
% of revenue | (269.3) (3.5%) | (306.7) (3.8%) | (417.5) (5.2%) | (471.0) (5.5%) | (586.5) (7.2%) | (528.0) (6.0%) | (534.8) (6.0%) | (543.0) (6.0%) | (543.5) (6.0%) | (550.0) (6.0%) | (557.3) (6.0%) | (565.4) (6.0%) | (574.5) (6.0%) | (584.4) (6.0%) | (595.3) (6.0%) | (607.2) (6.0%) |
% of revenue | 183.9 2.4% | 176.9 2.2% | (94.7) (1.2%) | 22.1 0.3% | (8.3) (0.1%) | (30.3) (0.3%) | (30.6) (0.3%) | (31.1) (0.3%) | (31.1) (0.3%) | (31.5) (0.3%) | (31.9) (0.3%) | (32.4) (0.3%) | (32.9) (0.3%) | (33.5) (0.3%) | (34.1) (0.3%) | (34.8) (0.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 1,289.7 16.5% | 1,359.7 17.0% | 713.4 8.9% | 11,553.4 135.5% | 811.0 9.9% | 936.7 10.6% | 948.7 10.6% | 963.3 10.6% | 964.2 10.6% | 975.7 10.6% | 988.7 10.6% | 1,003.1 10.6% | 1,019.2 10.6% | 1,036.8 10.6% | 1,056.1 10.6% | 1,077.3 10.6% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 15.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 143.6 | 852.2 | 805.6 | 750.7 | 707.3 | 667.2 | 630.3 | 596.2 | 564.7 | 535.5 |
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SJM DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
6,253.4M
38.3%
Terminal Value (TV)
19.9B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
10.1B
61.7%
Total Debt
8,559.1M
7,851.2M
Shares outstanding
212.9M
FX rate
1.0
36.9
67.1% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
SJM DCF Financials
Revenue
$8,178.7M -> $9,970.1M
2.0% CAGR
Operating Income
$1,305.8M -> $1,542.6M
1.7% CAGR
FCFF
$811.0M -> $1,056.1M
2.7% CAGR
SJM DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
$50.0
$56.0
$64.0
$65.0
$65.0
6.5%
$41.0
$46.0
$53.0
$60.0
$62.0
7.4%
$29.0
$33.0
$37.0
$42.0
$48.0
7.5%
$29.0
$32.0
$36.0
$40.0
$46.0
8.0%
$23.0
$26.0
$29.0
$33.0
$37.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
(55.0%)
(50.0%)
(43.0%)
(42.0%)
(42.0%)
6.5%
(63.0%)
(59.0%)
(53.0%)
(46.0%)
(45.0%)
7.4%
(74.0%)
(71.0%)
(67.0%)
(63.0%)
(57.0%)
7.5%
(74.0%)
(71.0%)
(68.0%)
(64.0%)
(59.0%)
8.0%
(79.0%)
(77.0%)
(74.0%)
(71.0%)
(67.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for SJM
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Peter Lynch charts
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Earnings growth model
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is The J. M. Smucker Company DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, The J. M. Smucker Company's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $36.9. This suggests it may be overvalued by (67.1%) compared to its current price of around $112.1, using a WACC of 7.4% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is The J. M. Smucker Company WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, The J. M. Smucker Company's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 7.4%.
What is The J. M. Smucker Company Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, The J. M. Smucker Company's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $16.3B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.