Last Price$108.4(2.9%)
Market Cap$11.1B
DCF value
$173.6
Undervalued (DCF value)
60.1%
Discount Rate
11.1%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
7/10
Good
TOL DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Oct'20 Actual | Oct'21 Actual | Oct'22 Actual | Oct'23 Actual | Oct'24 Actual | Oct'25 Estimate | Oct'26 Estimate | Oct'27 Estimate | Oct'28 Estimate | Oct'29 Estimate | Oct'30 Estimate | Oct'31 Estimate | Oct'32 Estimate | Oct'33 Estimate | Oct'34 Estimate | Oct'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 7,077.7 (2.0%) | 8,790.4 24.2% | 10,275.6 16.9% | 9,994.9 (2.7%) | 10,846.7 8.5% | 11,007.7 1.5% | 11,821.1 7.4% | 12,626.2 6.8% | 15,520.0 22.9% | 18,624.3 20.0% | 21,806.3 17.1% | 24,895.8 14.2% | 27,696.9 11.3% | 30,005.1 8.3% | 31,630.5 5.4% | 32,421.3 2.5% |
% margin | 550.3 7.8% | 1,020.9 11.6% | 1,508.6 14.7% | 1,724.8 17.3% | 2,040.2 18.8% | 1,561.9 14.2% | 1,677.3 14.2% | 1,791.6 14.2% | 2,202.2 14.2% | 2,642.6 14.2% | 3,094.1 14.2% | 3,532.5 14.2% | 3,930.0 14.2% | 4,257.5 14.2% | 4,488.1 14.2% | 4,600.3 14.2% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 418.7 5.9% | 773.4 8.8% | 1,139.2 11.1% | 1,284.5 12.9% | 1,537.0 14.2% | 1,176.6 10.7% | 1,263.6 10.7% | 1,349.7 10.7% | 1,659.0 10.7% | 1,990.8 10.7% | 2,330.9 10.7% | 2,661.2 10.7% | 2,960.6 10.7% | 3,207.3 10.7% | 3,381.1 10.7% | 3,465.6 10.7% |
% of revenue | 68.9 1.0% | 76.3 0.9% | 76.8 0.7% | 76.5 0.8% | 0.0 0.0% | 55.5 0.5% | 59.6 0.5% | 63.7 0.5% | 78.3 0.5% | 93.9 0.5% | 110.0 0.5% | 125.5 0.5% | 139.7 0.5% | 151.3 0.5% | 159.5 0.5% | 163.5 0.5% |
% of revenue | (109.6) (1.5%) | (66.9) (0.8%) | (71.7) (0.7%) | (73.0) (0.7%) | (73.6) (0.7%) | (77.3) (0.7%) | (83.0) (0.7%) | (88.7) (0.7%) | (109.0) (0.7%) | (130.8) (0.7%) | (153.1) (0.7%) | (174.8) (0.7%) | (194.5) (0.7%) | (210.7) (0.7%) | (222.1) (0.7%) | (227.7) (0.7%) |
% of revenue | 314.6 4.4% | 345.2 3.9% | (404.1) (3.9%) | (432.7) (4.3%) | 0.0 0.0% | (303.1) (2.8%) | (325.5) (2.8%) | (347.7) (2.8%) | (427.4) (2.8%) | (512.9) (2.8%) | (600.5) (2.8%) | (685.6) (2.8%) | (762.7) (2.8%) | (826.3) (2.8%) | (871.1) (2.8%) | (892.9) (2.8%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 692.7 9.8% | 1,128.0 12.8% | 740.1 7.2% | 855.3 8.6% | 1,463.3 13.5% | 851.7 7.7% | 914.6 7.7% | 976.9 7.7% | 1,200.8 7.7% | 1,441.0 7.7% | 1,687.2 7.7% | 1,926.3 7.7% | 2,143.0 7.7% | 2,321.6 7.7% | 2,447.3 7.7% | 2,508.5 7.7% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 66.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.37 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 535.8 | 781.5 | 751.6 | 831.8 | 898.8 | 947.6 | 974.1 | 975.7 | 951.8 | 903.4 |
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TOL DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
8,552.1M
44.2%
Terminal Value (TV)
29.3B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
10.8B
55.8%
1,303.0M
Total Debt
2,832.9M
17.8B
Shares outstanding
102.8M
FX rate
1.0
173.6
60.1% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
TOL DCF Financials
Revenue
$10.8B -> $31.6B
11.3% CAGR
Operating Income
$2,040.2M -> $4,488.1M
8.2% CAGR
FCFF
$1,463.3M -> $2,447.3M
5.3% CAGR
TOL DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
10.0%
$189.0
$196.0
$204.0
$214.0
$225.0
10.5%
$176.0
$182.0
$189.0
$197.0
$206.0
11.1%
$163.0
$168.0
$174.0
$180.0
$187.0
11.5%
$153.0
$158.0
$163.0
$169.0
$175.0
12.0%
$144.0
$148.0
$152.0
$157.0
$163.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
10.0%
74.0%
81.0%
88.0%
97.0%
108.0%
10.5%
62.0%
68.0%
74.0%
82.0%
90.0%
11.1%
50.0%
55.0%
61.0%
66.0%
73.0%
11.5%
41.0%
46.0%
50.0%
56.0%
61.0%
12.0%
33.0%
37.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for TOL
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Toll Brothers, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Toll Brothers, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $173.6. This suggests it may be undervalued by 60.1% compared to its current price of around $108.4, using a WACC of 11.1% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Toll Brothers, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Toll Brothers, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 11.1%.
What is Toll Brothers, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Toll Brothers, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $19.4B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.