Last Price$284.7(2.8%)
Market Cap$968.7B
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
11.0%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
TSLA DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 31,536.0 28.3% | 53,823.0 70.7% | 81,462.0 51.4% | 96,773.0 18.8% | 97,690.0 0.9% | 116,556.0 19.3% | 138,298.6 18.7% | 152,312.3 10.1% | 181,401.9 19.1% | 211,745.7 16.7% | 242,144.3 14.4% | 271,165.1 12.0% | 297,234.1 9.6% | 318,761.2 7.2% | 334,288.8 4.9% | 342,646.0 2.5% |
% margin | 1,994.0 (6.3%) | 6,523.0 12.1% | 13,656.0 16.8% | 8,891.0 9.2% | 7,076.0 7.2% | 10,773.7 9.2% | 12,783.4 9.2% | 14,078.7 9.2% | 16,767.6 9.2% | 19,572.4 9.2% | 22,382.2 9.2% | 25,064.7 9.2% | 27,474.4 9.2% | 29,464.2 9.2% | 30,899.5 9.2% | 31,671.9 9.2% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 1,489.5 4.7% | 5,804.2 10.8% | 12,529.2 15.4% | 13,349.4 13.8% | 5,630.1 5.8% | 8,572.2 7.4% | 10,171.3 7.4% | 11,201.9 7.4% | 13,341.3 7.4% | 15,573.0 7.4% | 17,808.7 7.4% | 19,943.0 7.4% | 21,860.3 7.4% | 23,443.5 7.4% | 24,585.5 7.4% | 25,200.2 7.4% |
% of revenue | 2,322.0 7.4% | 2,911.0 5.4% | 3,747.0 4.6% | 4,667.0 4.8% | 5,368.0 5.5% | 5,795.6 5.0% | 6,876.8 5.0% | 7,573.6 5.0% | 9,020.1 5.0% | 10,528.9 5.0% | 12,040.4 5.0% | 13,483.5 5.0% | 14,779.7 5.0% | 15,850.1 5.0% | 16,622.2 5.0% | 17,037.8 5.0% |
% of revenue | (3,242.0) (10.3%) | (8,014.0) (14.9%) | (7,172.0) (8.8%) | (8,899.0) (9.2%) | (11,345.0) (11.6%) | (11,505.3) (9.9%) | (13,651.5) (9.9%) | (15,034.8) (9.9%) | (17,906.3) (9.9%) | (20,901.5) (9.9%) | (23,902.2) (9.9%) | (26,766.8) (9.9%) | (29,340.1) (9.9%) | (31,465.0) (9.9%) | (32,997.8) (9.9%) | (33,822.7) (9.9%) |
% of revenue | 0.0 0.0% | 0.0 0.0% | (3,908.0) (4.8%) | (2,248.0) (2.3%) | 81.0 0.1% | (2,734.2) (2.3%) | (3,244.2) (2.3%) | (3,572.9) (2.3%) | (4,255.3) (2.3%) | (4,967.1) (2.3%) | (5,680.2) (2.3%) | (6,361.0) (2.3%) | (6,972.5) (2.3%) | (7,477.5) (2.3%) | (7,841.7) (2.3%) | (8,037.8) (2.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (2,409.5) (7.6%) | 701.2 1.3% | 5,196.2 6.4% | 6,869.4 7.1% | (265.9) (0.3%) | 128.4 0.1% | 152.3 0.1% | 167.8 0.1% | 199.8 0.1% | 233.3 0.1% | 266.7 0.1% | 298.7 0.1% | 327.4 0.1% | 351.1 0.1% | 368.2 0.1% | 377.5 0.1% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.37 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 101.2 | 130.3 | 129.3 | 138.8 | 146.0 | 150.4 | 151.8 | 149.9 | 144.9 | 136.9 |
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TSLA DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
1,379.6M
45.4%
Terminal Value (TV)
4,453.6M
Discounted TV
% share of EV
1,656.0M
54.6%
3,035.6M
Total Debt
8,213.0M
N/A
Shares outstanding
3,403.2M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
TSLA DCF Financials
Revenue
$97.7B -> $334.3B
13.1% CAGR
Operating Income
$7,076.0M -> $30.9B
15.9% CAGR
FCFF
($265.9M) -> $368.2M
N/A CAGR
TSLA DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
10.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
10.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
11.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
11.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
12.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
10.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
10.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
11.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
11.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
12.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for TSLA
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Tesla, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Tesla, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $284.7, using a WACC of 11.0% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Tesla, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Tesla, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 11.0%.
What is Tesla, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Tesla, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $3,035.6M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.