Last Price$116.4(3.5%)
Market Cap$100.1B
DCF value
$128.0
Undervalued (DCF value)
10.0%
Discount Rate
7.0%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
7/10
Good
UPS DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 84,628.0 14.2% | 97,287.0 15.0% | 100,338.0 3.1% | 90,958.0 (9.3%) | 91,070.0 0.1% | 89,235.0 (2.0%) | 90,630.7 1.6% | 94,561.6 4.3% | 106,545.0 12.7% | 102,714.0 (3.6%) | 99,978.7 (2.7%) | 98,248.6 (1.7%) | 97,464.7 (0.8%) | 97,596.1 0.1% | 98,637.8 1.1% | 100,610.6 2.0% |
% margin | 2,638.0 3.1% | 17,267.0 17.7% | 13,094.0 13.0% | 9,141.0 10.0% | 8,468.0 9.3% | 9,897.6 11.1% | 10,052.4 11.1% | 10,488.4 11.1% | 11,817.6 11.1% | 11,392.6 11.1% | 11,089.2 11.1% | 10,897.4 11.1% | 10,810.4 11.1% | 10,825.0 11.1% | 10,940.5 11.1% | 11,159.3 11.1% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 1,907.0 2.3% | 13,412.0 13.8% | 10,199.6 10.2% | 7,152.4 7.9% | 6,579.1 7.2% | 7,689.9 8.6% | 7,810.1 8.6% | 8,148.9 8.6% | 9,181.6 8.6% | 8,851.4 8.6% | 8,615.7 8.6% | 8,466.6 8.6% | 8,399.1 8.6% | 8,410.4 8.6% | 8,500.1 8.6% | 8,670.2 8.6% |
% of revenue | 2,698.0 3.2% | 2,953.0 3.0% | 3,188.0 3.2% | 3,366.0 3.7% | 3,609.0 4.0% | 3,224.6 3.6% | 3,275.0 3.6% | 3,417.1 3.6% | 3,850.1 3.6% | 3,711.7 3.6% | 3,612.8 3.6% | 3,550.3 3.6% | 3,522.0 3.6% | 3,526.7 3.6% | 3,564.4 3.6% | 3,635.6 3.6% |
% of revenue | (5,412.0) (6.4%) | (4,194.0) (4.3%) | (4,769.0) (4.8%) | (5,158.0) (5.7%) | (3,909.0) (4.3%) | (4,377.3) (4.9%) | (4,445.7) (4.9%) | (4,638.6) (4.9%) | (5,226.4) (4.9%) | (5,038.5) (4.9%) | (4,904.3) (4.9%) | (4,819.4) (4.9%) | (4,781.0) (4.9%) | (4,787.4) (4.9%) | (4,838.5) (4.9%) | (4,935.3) (4.9%) |
% of revenue | 1,081.0 1.3% | (664.0) (0.7%) | (420.0) (0.4%) | (372.0) (0.4%) | 256.0 0.3% | (162.5) (0.2%) | (165.1) (0.2%) | (172.2) (0.2%) | (194.1) (0.2%) | (187.1) (0.2%) | (182.1) (0.2%) | (179.0) (0.2%) | (177.5) (0.2%) | (177.8) (0.2%) | (179.7) (0.2%) | (183.3) (0.2%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 274.0 0.3% | 11,507.0 11.8% | 8,198.6 8.2% | 4,988.4 5.5% | 6,535.1 7.2% | 6,374.6 7.1% | 6,474.3 7.1% | 6,755.1 7.1% | 7,611.2 7.1% | 7,337.5 7.1% | 7,142.1 7.1% | 7,018.5 7.1% | 6,962.5 7.1% | 6,971.9 7.1% | 7,046.3 7.1% | 7,187.3 7.1% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 4,981.7 | 5,853.1 | 5,709.8 | 6,014.9 | 5,421.5 | 4,933.9 | 4,533.2 | 4,204.6 | 3,936.4 | 3,719.7 |
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UPS DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
49.3B
39.2%
Terminal Value (TV)
145.0B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
76.6B
60.8%
125.9B
6,318.0M
Total Debt
22.0B
110.2B
Shares outstanding
860.4M
FX rate
1.0
128.0
10% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
UPS DCF Financials
Revenue
$91.1B -> $98.6B
0.8% CAGR
Operating Income
$8,468.0M -> $10.9B
2.6% CAGR
FCFF
$6,535.1M -> $7,046.3M
0.8% CAGR
UPS DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
$138.0
$148.0
$162.0
$179.0
$181.0
6.5%
$124.0
$132.0
$142.0
$155.0
$171.0
7.0%
$113.0
$120.0
$128.0
$138.0
$151.0
7.5%
$102.0
$108.0
$114.0
$122.0
$131.0
8.0%
$94.0
$98.0
$104.0
$110.0
$117.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
19.0%
27.0%
39.0%
54.0%
56.0%
6.5%
7.0%
13.0%
22.0%
33.0%
47.0%
7.0%
(3.0%)
3.0%
10.0%
19.0%
30.0%
7.5%
(12.0%)
(7.0%)
(2.0%)
5.0%
13.0%
8.0%
(19.0%)
(16.0%)
(11.0%)
(5.0%)
1.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for UPS
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is United Parcel Service, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, United Parcel Service, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $128.0. This suggests it may be undervalued by 10.0% compared to its current price of around $116.4, using a WACC of 7.0% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, United Parcel Service, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 7.0%.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, United Parcel Service, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $125.9B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.