Last Price$31.91.0%
Market Cap$12.5B
DCF value
$23.0
Overvalued (DCF value)
(27.9%)
Discount Rate
27.5%
Long-Term Growth Rate
1.5%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
YPF DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 665,329.0 57.9% | 659,600.0 (0.9%) | 1,243,071.0 88.5% | 2,484,211.0 99.8% | 5,386,882.0 116.8% | 19,601,866.9 263.9% | 19,168,619.6 (2.2%) | 20,054,698.5 4.6% | 21,074,042.6 5.1% | 17,934,096.0 (14.9%) | 15,752,175.1 (12.2%) | 14,266,262.7 (9.4%) | 13,310,452.1 (6.7%) | 12,782,488.9 (4.0%) | 12,624,846.9 (1.2%) | 12,814,219.6 1.5% |
% margin | 42,756.0 6.4% | (38,312.0) (5.8%) | 148,949.0 12.0% | 399,205.0 16.1% | 1,057,003.0 19.6% | 1,097,348.3 5.6% | 1,073,094.4 5.6% | 1,122,698.7 5.6% | 1,179,763.4 5.6% | 1,003,983.5 5.6% | 881,835.6 5.6% | 798,651.5 5.6% | 745,143.4 5.6% | 715,587.1 5.6% | 706,762.0 5.6% | 717,363.4 5.6% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 203,588.1 30.6% | (48,217.3) (7.3%) | (1,892.3) (0.2%) | 290,285.1 11.7% | 1,871,133.3 34.7% | 1,942,553.6 9.9% | 1,899,618.6 9.9% | 1,987,429.4 9.9% | 2,088,446.9 9.9% | 1,777,276.8 9.9% | 1,561,047.5 9.9% | 1,413,792.9 9.9% | 1,319,071.6 9.9% | 1,266,750.3 9.9% | 1,251,127.9 9.9% | 1,269,894.8 9.9% |
% of revenue | 158,777.0 23.9% | 192,753.0 29.2% | 291,719.0 23.5% | 372,571.0 15.0% | 988,615.0 18.4% | 3,712,425.8 18.9% | 3,630,372.5 18.9% | 3,798,188.2 18.9% | 3,991,243.3 18.9% | 3,396,564.3 18.9% | 2,983,327.1 18.9% | 2,701,908.0 18.9% | 2,520,885.7 18.9% | 2,420,894.0 18.9% | 2,391,037.9 18.9% | 2,426,903.5 18.9% |
% of revenue | (161,455.0) (24.3%) | (114,616.0) (17.4%) | (234,801.0) (18.9%) | (532,128.0) (21.4%) | (5,673.0) (0.1%) | (2,640,665.4) (13.5%) | (2,582,300.5) (13.5%) | (2,701,668.6) (13.5%) | (2,838,989.5) (13.5%) | (2,415,991.6) (13.5%) | (2,122,054.2) (13.5%) | (1,921,879.5) (13.5%) | (1,793,117.5) (13.5%) | (1,721,992.9) (13.5%) | (1,700,756.2) (13.5%) | (1,726,267.5) (13.5%) |
% of revenue | 11,803.0 1.8% | 48,278.0 7.3% | (51,017.0) (4.1%) | 246.0 0.0% | 317.0 0.0% | (267,129.2) (1.4%) | (261,225.0) (1.4%) | (273,300.3) (1.4%) | (287,191.6) (1.4%) | (244,401.2) (1.4%) | (214,666.6) (1.4%) | (194,417.0) (1.4%) | (181,391.4) (1.4%) | (174,196.5) (1.4%) | (172,048.2) (1.4%) | (174,628.9) (1.4%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 212,713.1 32.0% | 78,197.7 11.9% | 4,008.7 0.3% | 130,974.1 5.3% | 2,854,392.3 53.0% | 2,747,184.8 14.0% | 2,686,465.6 14.0% | 2,810,648.8 14.0% | 2,953,509.0 14.0% | 2,513,448.2 14.0% | 2,207,653.8 14.0% | 1,999,404.5 14.0% | 1,865,448.4 14.0% | 1,791,454.8 14.0% | 1,769,361.5 14.0% | 1,795,901.9 14.0% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.89 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.13 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,923,166.1 | 1,953,105.4 | 1,610,164.1 | 1,075,015.0 | 740,778.4 | 526,345.3 | 385,270.8 | 290,269.5 | 224,918.3 |
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YPF DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
8,729.0B
90.8%
Terminal Value (TV)
6,916.9B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
879.3B
9.2%
9,608.3B
1,387.0M
Total Debt
8,856.0M
9,600.8B
Shares outstanding
391.8M
FX rate
0.0
23.0
27.9% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
YPF DCF Financials
Revenue
ARS 5,386.9B -> ARS 12.6T
8.9% CAGR
Operating Income
ARS 1,057.0B -> ARS 706.8B
(3.9%) CAGR
FCFF
ARS 2,854.4B -> ARS 1,769.4B
(4.7%) CAGR
YPF DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
WACC
26.0%
$24.0
$24.0
$24.0
$24.0
$24.0
26.5%
$24.0
$24.0
$24.0
$24.0
$24.0
27.5%
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
27.5%
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
28.0%
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
$23.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
WACC
26.0%
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
26.5%
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
(25.0%)
27.5%
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
27.5%
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
28.0%
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
(28.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for YPF
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is YPF Sociedad Anónima DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $23.0. This suggests it may be overvalued by (27.9%) compared to its current price of around $31.9, using a WACC of 27.5% and growth rates of 1.5%.
What is YPF Sociedad Anónima WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 27.5%.
What is YPF Sociedad Anónima Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, YPF Sociedad Anónima's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately ARS 9,608.3B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.