Last Price$19.8(2.7%)
Market Cap$8,463.1M
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
8.6%
Long-Term Growth Rate
4.0%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
BILI DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 6,777.9 64.2% | 11,999.0 77.0% | 19,383.7 61.5% | 21,899.2 13.0% | 22,528.0 2.9% | 26,745.6 18.7% | 30,143.1 12.7% | 33,207.3 10.2% | 38,727.2 16.6% | 44,466.4 14.8% | 50,254.2 13.0% | 55,889.2 11.2% | 61,148.2 9.4% | 65,799.4 7.6% | 69,617.9 5.8% | 72,402.6 4.0% |
% margin | (1,495.2) (22.1%) | (3,141.0) (26.2%) | (6,429.1) (33.2%) | (8,357.9) (38.2%) | (5,064.2) (22.5%) | (7,517.0) (28.1%) | (8,471.9) (28.1%) | (9,333.1) (28.1%) | (10,884.5) (28.1%) | (12,497.6) (28.1%) | (14,124.3) (28.1%) | (15,708.0) (28.1%) | (17,186.1) (28.1%) | (18,493.3) (28.1%) | (19,566.5) (28.1%) | (20,349.2) (28.1%) |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | (1,537.5) (22.7%) | (3,196.8) (26.6%) | (6,520.3) (33.6%) | (8,475.5) (38.7%) | (5,148.4) (22.9%) | (7,642.0) (28.6%) | (8,612.8) (28.6%) | (9,488.3) (28.6%) | (11,065.5) (28.6%) | (12,705.4) (28.6%) | (14,359.1) (28.6%) | (15,969.2) (28.6%) | (17,471.9) (28.6%) | (18,800.9) (28.6%) | (19,891.9) (28.6%) | (20,687.6) (28.6%) |
% of revenue | 1,168.1 17.2% | 1,817.9 15.2% | 2,603.7 13.4% | 3,566.1 16.3% | 2,899.7 12.9% | 3,796.8 14.2% | 4,279.1 14.2% | 4,714.1 14.2% | 5,497.7 14.2% | 6,312.4 14.2% | 7,134.1 14.2% | 7,934.0 14.2% | 8,680.6 14.2% | 9,340.9 14.2% | 9,882.9 14.2% | 10,278.3 14.2% |
% of revenue | (1,564.9) (23.1%) | (2,239.0) (18.7%) | (3,687.2) (19.0%) | (2,738.3) (12.5%) | (1,330.1) (5.9%) | (3,337.0) (12.5%) | (3,760.9) (12.5%) | (4,143.3) (12.5%) | (4,832.0) (12.5%) | (5,548.1) (12.5%) | (6,270.2) (12.5%) | (6,973.3) (12.5%) | (7,629.4) (12.5%) | (8,209.8) (12.5%) | (8,686.2) (12.5%) | (9,033.6) (12.5%) |
% of revenue | 223.1 3.3% | 1,487.3 12.4% | (9.2) (0.0%) | (1,152.1) (5.3%) | 449.2 2.0% | (295.5) (1.1%) | (333.0) (1.1%) | (366.9) (1.1%) | (427.9) (1.1%) | (491.3) (1.1%) | (555.2) (1.1%) | (617.5) (1.1%) | (675.6) (1.1%) | (726.9) (1.1%) | (769.1) (1.1%) | (799.9) (1.1%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (1,711.1) (25.2%) | (2,130.7) (17.8%) | (7,613.0) (39.3%) | (8,799.9) (40.2%) | (3,129.7) (13.9%) | (7,477.7) (28.0%) | (8,427.6) (28.0%) | (9,284.3) (28.0%) | (10,827.6) (28.0%) | (12,432.2) (28.0%) | (14,050.4) (28.0%) | (15,625.9) (28.0%) | (17,096.3) (28.0%) | (18,396.7) (28.0%) | (19,464.3) (28.0%) | (20,242.9) (28.0%) |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) |
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BILI DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
N/A
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
N/A
Discounted TV
% share of EV
N/A
70.0%
Total Debt
7,644.9M
N/A
Shares outstanding
427.4M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
BILI DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥22.5B -> CN¥69.6B
11.9% CAGR
Operating Income
(CN¥5,064.2M) -> (CN¥19.6B)
14.5% CAGR
FCFF
(CN¥3,129.7M) -> (CN¥19.5B)
20.1% CAGR
BILI DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
8.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
8.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
8.6%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
9.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
10.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
WACC
8.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
8.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
8.6%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
9.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
10.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for BILI
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Bilibili Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Bilibili Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $19.8, using a WACC of 8.6% and growth rates of 4.0%.
What is Bilibili Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Bilibili Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.6%.
What is Bilibili Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Bilibili Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥0.0. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.