Last Price$97.5(0.7%)
Market Cap$61.4B
DCF value
$116.6
Undervalued (DCF value)
19.6%
Discount Rate
6.2%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
CNI DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 13,819.0 (7.4%) | 14,477.0 4.8% | 17,107.0 18.2% | 16,828.0 (1.6%) | 17,046.0 1.3% | 17,988.0 5.5% | 18,978.1 5.5% | 20,156.5 6.2% | 21,248.0 5.4% | 22,513.1 6.0% | 23,705.2 5.3% | 24,804.2 4.6% | 25,790.7 4.0% | 26,646.4 3.3% | 27,354.9 2.7% | 27,902.0 2.0% |
% margin | 4,777.0 34.6% | 5,616.0 38.8% | 6,840.0 40.0% | 6,597.0 39.2% | 6,247.0 36.6% | 7,579.4 42.1% | 7,996.6 42.1% | 8,493.1 42.1% | 8,953.0 42.1% | 9,486.1 42.1% | 9,988.4 42.1% | 10,451.5 42.1% | 10,867.1 42.1% | 11,227.7 42.1% | 11,526.2 42.1% | 11,756.8 42.1% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 3,744.6 27.1% | 4,338.2 30.0% | 5,176.3 30.3% | 5,719.5 34.0% | 4,748.2 27.9% | 5,760.9 32.0% | 6,078.0 32.0% | 6,455.5 32.0% | 6,805.0 32.0% | 7,210.2 32.0% | 7,592.0 32.0% | 7,944.0 32.0% | 8,259.9 32.0% | 8,534.0 32.0% | 8,760.9 32.0% | 8,936.1 32.0% |
% of revenue | 1,589.0 11.5% | 1,598.0 11.0% | 1,729.0 10.1% | 1,817.0 10.8% | 1,892.0 11.1% | 1,918.9 10.7% | 2,024.6 10.7% | 2,150.3 10.7% | 2,266.7 10.7% | 2,401.7 10.7% | 2,528.9 10.7% | 2,646.1 10.7% | 2,751.3 10.7% | 2,842.6 10.7% | 2,918.2 10.7% | 2,976.6 10.7% |
% of revenue | (2,863.0) (20.7%) | (2,891.0) (20.0%) | (2,750.0) (16.1%) | (3,187.0) (18.9%) | (3,549.0) (20.8%) | (3,347.8) (18.6%) | (3,532.1) (18.6%) | (3,751.4) (18.6%) | (3,954.5) (18.6%) | (4,190.0) (18.6%) | (4,411.9) (18.6%) | (4,616.4) (18.6%) | (4,800.0) (18.6%) | (4,959.3) (18.6%) | (5,091.1) (18.6%) | (5,192.9) (18.6%) |
% of revenue | 129.0 0.9% | 147.0 1.0% | (411.0) (2.4%) | (53.0) (0.3%) | 92.0 0.5% | (130.6) (0.7%) | (137.8) (0.7%) | (146.3) (0.7%) | (154.2) (0.7%) | (163.4) (0.7%) | (172.1) (0.7%) | (180.1) (0.7%) | (187.2) (0.7%) | (193.4) (0.7%) | (198.6) (0.7%) | (202.5) (0.7%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 2,599.6 18.8% | 3,192.2 22.1% | 3,744.3 21.9% | 4,296.5 25.5% | 3,183.2 18.7% | 4,201.5 23.4% | 4,432.8 23.4% | 4,708.0 23.4% | 4,963.0 23.4% | 5,258.5 23.4% | 5,536.9 23.4% | 5,793.6 23.4% | 6,024.0 23.4% | 6,223.9 23.4% | 6,389.4 23.4% | 6,517.2 23.4% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 78.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 3,216.9 | 4,050.3 | 4,050.6 | 4,020.6 | 4,011.2 | 3,977.0 | 3,918.4 | 3,836.4 | 3,732.2 | 3,607.7 |
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CNI DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 18, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
38.4B
30.5%
Terminal Value (TV)
155.1B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
87.6B
69.5%
126.0B
Total Debt
21.4B
105.0B
Shares outstanding
629.8M
FX rate
0.7
116.6
19.6% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
CNI DCF Financials
Revenue
CA$17.0B -> CA$27.4B
4.8% CAGR
Operating Income
CA$6,247.0M -> CA$11.5B
6.3% CAGR
FCFF
CA$3,183.2M -> CA$6,389.4M
7.2% CAGR
CNI DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
5.0%
$127.0
$127.0
$127.0
$127.0
$127.0
5.5%
$118.0
$124.0
$124.0
$124.0
$124.0
6.2%
$98.0
$106.0
$117.0
$119.0
$119.0
6.5%
$91.0
$98.0
$107.0
$117.0
$117.0
7.0%
$81.0
$87.0
$94.0
$102.0
$113.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
5.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
5.5%
21.0%
27.0%
27.0%
27.0%
27.0%
6.2%
0.0%
9.0%
20.0%
22.0%
22.0%
6.5%
(7.0%)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
20.0%
7.0%
(17.0%)
(11.0%)
(4.0%)
5.0%
16.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for CNI
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Canadian National Railway Company DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 18, 2025, Canadian National Railway Company's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $116.6. This suggests it may be undervalued by 19.6% compared to its current price of around $97.5, using a WACC of 6.2% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is Canadian National Railway Company WACC?
As of Mar 18, 2025, Canadian National Railway Company's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 6.2%.
What is Canadian National Railway Company Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 18, 2025, Canadian National Railway Company's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CA$126.0B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.