Last Price$46.3(0.9%)
Market Cap$17.9B
DCF value
($3.1)
Overvalued (DCF value)
(106.8%)
Discount Rate
6.6%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
5/10
Good
GFL DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 4,196.2 25.4% | 5,525.5 31.7% | 6,761.3 22.4% | 7,515.5 11.2% | 7,862.0 4.6% | 6,539.8 (16.8%) | 7,004.0 7.1% | 7,590.8 8.4% | 8,388.0 10.5% | 9,462.3 12.8% | 10,503.9 11.0% | 11,470.8 9.2% | 12,320.1 7.4% | 13,010.4 5.6% | 13,504.9 3.8% | 13,775.0 2.0% |
% margin | (320.3) (7.6%) | (64.3) (1.2%) | 87.9 1.3% | 389.2 5.2% | 0.0 0.0% | (257.9) (3.9%) | (276.2) (3.9%) | (299.4) (3.9%) | (330.8) (3.9%) | (373.2) (3.9%) | (414.2) (3.9%) | (452.4) (3.9%) | (485.9) (3.9%) | (513.1) (3.9%) | (532.6) (3.9%) | (543.2) (3.9%) |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | (235.0) (5.6%) | (54.7) (1.0%) | 44.8 0.7% | 65.2 0.9% | 0.0 0.0% | (201.4) (3.1%) | (215.7) (3.1%) | (233.7) (3.1%) | (258.3) (3.1%) | (291.4) (3.1%) | (323.4) (3.1%) | (353.2) (3.1%) | (379.4) (3.1%) | (400.6) (3.1%) | (415.8) (3.1%) | (424.2) (3.1%) |
% of revenue | 1,237.6 29.5% | 1,393.0 25.2% | 1,525.5 22.6% | 1,489.7 19.8% | 1,567.8 19.9% | 1,358.7 20.8% | 1,455.1 20.8% | 1,577.0 20.8% | 1,742.6 20.8% | 1,965.8 20.8% | 2,182.2 20.8% | 2,383.1 20.8% | 2,559.5 20.8% | 2,702.9 20.8% | 2,805.7 20.8% | 2,861.8 20.8% |
% of revenue | (428.3) (10.2%) | (647.2) (11.7%) | (780.1) (11.5%) | (1,055.1) (14.0%) | (1,193.0) (15.2%) | (888.3) (13.6%) | (951.4) (13.6%) | (1,031.1) (13.6%) | (1,139.4) (13.6%) | (1,285.3) (13.6%) | (1,426.8) (13.6%) | (1,558.2) (13.6%) | (1,673.5) (13.6%) | (1,767.3) (13.6%) | (1,834.5) (13.6%) | (1,871.2) (13.6%) |
% of revenue | 5.2 0.1% | (46.1) (0.8%) | (85.5) (1.3%) | 31.0 0.4% | (17.9) (0.2%) | (23.5) (0.4%) | (25.2) (0.4%) | (27.3) (0.4%) | (30.2) (0.4%) | (34.1) (0.4%) | (37.8) (0.4%) | (41.3) (0.4%) | (44.3) (0.4%) | (46.8) (0.4%) | (48.6) (0.4%) | (49.6) (0.4%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 579.5 13.8% | 645.0 11.7% | 704.7 10.4% | 530.8 7.1% | 356.9 4.5% | 245.4 3.8% | 262.8 3.8% | 284.8 3.8% | 314.7 3.8% | 355.1 3.8% | 394.1 3.8% | 430.4 3.8% | 462.3 3.8% | 488.2 3.8% | 506.7 3.8% | 516.9 3.8% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 192.1 | 238.9 | 242.9 | 251.8 | 266.5 | 277.6 | 284.4 | 286.6 | 284.0 | 276.6 |
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GFL DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
2,601.5M
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
11.1B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
6,070.2M
70.0%
8,671.7M
Total Debt
10.5B
(1,743.5M)
Shares outstanding
385.7M
FX rate
0.7
(3.1)
106.8% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
GFL DCF Financials
Revenue
CA$7,862.0M -> CA$13.5B
5.6% CAGR
Operating Income
CA$0.0 -> (CA$532.6M)
N/A CAGR
FCFF
CA$356.9M -> CA$506.7M
3.6% CAGR
GFL DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
($3.0)
($3.0)
($3.0)
($3.0)
($3.0)
6.5%
($5.0)
($4.0)
($3.0)
($3.0)
($3.0)
6.6%
($5.0)
($4.0)
($3.0)
($3.0)
($3.0)
7.5%
($7.0)
($6.0)
($6.0)
($5.0)
($4.0)
8.0%
($8.0)
($7.0)
($7.0)
($6.0)
($5.0)
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
6.5%
(111.0%)
(109.0%)
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
6.6%
(111.0%)
(109.0%)
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
(106.0%)
7.5%
(115.0%)
(113.0%)
(113.0%)
(111.0%)
(109.0%)
8.0%
(117.0%)
(115.0%)
(115.0%)
(113.0%)
(111.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for GFL
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is GFL Environmental Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, GFL Environmental Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at ($3.1). This suggests it may be overvalued by (106.8%) compared to its current price of around $46.3, using a WACC of 6.6% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is GFL Environmental Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, GFL Environmental Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 6.6%.
What is GFL Environmental Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, GFL Environmental Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CA$8,671.7M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.