Last Price$19.92.4%
Market Cap$6,159.2M
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
8.2%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
MNSO DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Jun'20 Actual | Jun'21 Actual | Jun'22 Actual | Jun'23 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 8,979.0 (4.4%) | 9,071.7 1.0% | 10,085.6 11.2% | 11,473.2 13.8% | 11,473.2 0.0% | 17,177.6 49.7% | 21,286.5 23.9% | 25,273.5 18.7% | 30,249.9 19.7% | 34,294.1 13.4% | 38,257.7 11.6% | 41,986.4 9.7% | 45,317.9 7.9% | 48,092.8 6.1% | 50,166.3 4.3% | 51,420.5 2.5% |
% margin | 766.6 1.3% | 401.0 4.9% | 882.0 8.7% | 2,223.0 19.4% | 2,121.0 20.2% | 2,010.6 11.7% | 2,491.5 11.7% | 2,958.2 11.7% | 3,540.7 11.7% | 4,014.0 11.7% | 4,478.0 11.7% | 4,914.4 11.7% | 5,304.4 11.7% | 5,629.2 11.7% | 5,871.9 11.7% | 6,018.7 11.7% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | (1,234.3) (13.7%) | 471.4 5.2% | 622.3 6.2% | 1,697.4 14.8% | 1,400.0 12.2% | 1,327.1 7.7% | 1,644.5 7.7% | 1,952.5 7.7% | 2,337.0 7.7% | 2,649.4 7.7% | 2,955.7 7.7% | 3,243.7 7.7% | 3,501.1 7.7% | 3,715.5 7.7% | 3,875.7 7.7% | 3,972.6 7.7% |
% of revenue | 37.5 0.4% | 30.5 0.3% | 58.9 0.6% | 36.8 0.3% | 36.8 0.3% | 70.1 0.4% | 86.9 0.4% | 103.2 0.4% | 123.5 0.4% | 140.0 0.4% | 156.2 0.4% | 171.5 0.4% | 185.1 0.4% | 196.4 0.4% | 204.9 0.4% | 210.0 0.4% |
% of revenue | (57.0) (0.6%) | (180.3) (2.0%) | (290.1) (2.9%) | (174.1) (1.5%) | (529.5) (4.6%) | (515.9) (3.0%) | (639.3) (3.0%) | (759.0) (3.0%) | (908.5) (3.0%) | (1,029.9) (3.0%) | (1,149.0) (3.0%) | (1,260.9) (3.0%) | (1,361.0) (3.0%) | (1,444.3) (3.0%) | (1,506.6) (3.0%) | (1,544.3) (3.0%) |
% of revenue | (205.1) (2.3%) | (169.9) (1.9%) | 89.1 0.9% | (436.6) (3.8%) | (1,538.3) (13.4%) | (935.0) (5.4%) | (1,158.7) (5.4%) | (1,375.7) (5.4%) | (1,646.6) (5.4%) | (1,866.7) (5.4%) | (2,082.5) (5.4%) | (2,285.4) (5.4%) | (2,466.8) (5.4%) | (2,617.8) (5.4%) | (2,730.7) (5.4%) | (2,798.9) (5.4%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (405.6) (4.5%) | 202.6 2.2% | 480.1 4.8% | 1,123.4 9.8% | (502.0) (4.4%) | (53.7) (0.3%) | (66.5) (0.3%) | (79.0) (0.3%) | (94.5) (0.3%) | (107.1) (0.3%) | (119.5) (0.3%) | (131.2) (0.3%) | (141.6) (0.3%) | (150.3) (0.3%) | (156.7) (0.3%) | (160.7) (0.3%) |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) |
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MNSO DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
N/A
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
N/A
Discounted TV
% share of EV
N/A
70.0%
6,626.2M
Total Debt
1,252.6M
N/A
Shares outstanding
309.2M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
MNSO DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥11.5B -> CN¥50.2B
15.9% CAGR
Operating Income
CN¥2,121.0M -> CN¥5,871.9M
10.7% CAGR
FCFF
(CN¥502.0M) -> (CN¥156.7M)
(11.0%) CAGR
MNSO DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
7.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
7.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
8.2%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
8.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
9.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
7.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
7.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
8.2%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
8.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
9.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for MNSO
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FAQ
What is MINISO Group Holding Limited DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $19.9, using a WACC of 8.2% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is MINISO Group Holding Limited WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.2%.
What is MINISO Group Holding Limited Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥0.0. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.