Last Price$7.41.5%
Market Cap$1,269.1M
DCF value
$17.3
Undervalued (DCF value)
133.5%
Discount Rate
5.9%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
MOMO DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 17,015.1 26.9% | 15,024.2 (11.7%) | 14,575.7 (3.0%) | 12,704.2 (12.8%) | 12,002.3 (5.5%) | 10,525.0 (12.3%) | 10,022.7 (4.8%) | 10,397.4 3.7% | 10,769.9 3.6% | 11,139.2 3.4% | 11,503.8 3.3% | 11,862.6 3.1% | 12,214.3 3.0% | 12,557.4 2.8% | 12,890.8 2.7% | 13,213.1 2.5% |
% margin | 3,554.7 20.9% | 2,531.4 16.8% | 2,375.7 16.3% | 1,627.5 12.8% | 2,305.0 19.2% | 1,527.4 14.5% | 1,454.5 14.5% | 1,508.9 14.5% | 1,562.9 14.5% | 1,616.5 14.5% | 1,669.4 14.5% | 1,721.5 14.5% | 1,772.5 14.5% | 1,822.3 14.5% | 1,870.7 14.5% | 1,917.5 14.5% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 2,742.5 16.1% | 1,871.5 12.5% | 3,308.5 22.7% | 1,177.0 9.3% | 1,742.5 14.5% | 1,154.7 11.0% | 1,099.6 11.0% | 1,140.7 11.0% | 1,181.5 11.0% | 1,222.0 11.0% | 1,262.0 11.0% | 1,301.4 11.0% | 1,340.0 11.0% | 1,377.6 11.0% | 1,414.2 11.0% | 1,449.6 11.0% |
% of revenue | 356.2 2.1% | 366.2 2.4% | 264.6 1.8% | 112.1 0.9% | 79.6 0.7% | 117.9 1.1% | 112.3 1.1% | 116.5 1.1% | 120.7 1.1% | 124.8 1.1% | 128.9 1.1% | 132.9 1.1% | 136.9 1.1% | 140.7 1.1% | 144.4 1.1% | 148.0 1.1% |
% of revenue | (186.5) (1.1%) | (124.1) (0.8%) | (95.3) (0.7%) | (80.4) (0.6%) | (576.3) (4.8%) | (213.6) (2.0%) | (203.4) (2.0%) | (211.0) (2.0%) | (218.6) (2.0%) | (226.1) (2.0%) | (233.5) (2.0%) | (240.8) (2.0%) | (247.9) (2.0%) | (254.9) (2.0%) | (261.6) (2.0%) | (268.2) (2.0%) |
% of revenue | 672.8 4.0% | (145.7) (1.0%) | (662.0) (4.5%) | (637.7) (5.0%) | (131.7) (1.1%) | (374.0) (3.6%) | (356.1) (3.6%) | (369.4) (3.6%) | (382.7) (3.6%) | (395.8) (3.6%) | (408.7) (3.6%) | (421.5) (3.6%) | (434.0) (3.6%) | (446.2) (3.6%) | (458.0) (3.6%) | (469.5) (3.6%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 3,585.0 21.1% | 1,967.9 13.1% | 2,815.7 19.3% | 571.0 4.5% | 1,114.1 9.3% | 685.0 6.5% | 652.3 6.5% | 676.7 6.5% | 700.9 6.5% | 725.0 6.5% | 748.7 6.5% | 772.1 6.5% | 794.9 6.5% | 817.3 6.5% | 839.0 6.5% | 860.0 6.5% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 512.3 | 621.1 | 607.6 | 593.5 | 578.8 | 563.7 | 548.1 | 532.2 | 516.0 |
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MOMO DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
5,073.3M
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
19.2B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
11.8B
70.0%
6,891.1M
Total Debt
2,285.8M
21.5B
Shares outstanding
171.0M
FX rate
0.1
17.3
133.5% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
MOMO DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥12.0B -> CN¥12.9B
0.7% CAGR
Operating Income
CN¥2,305.0M -> CN¥1,870.7M
(2.1%) CAGR
FCFF
CN¥1,114.1M -> CN¥839.0M
(2.8%) CAGR
MOMO DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
5.0%
$18.0
$18.0
$18.0
$18.0
$18.0
5.5%
$18.0
$18.0
$18.0
$18.0
$18.0
5.9%
$17.0
$17.0
$17.0
$17.0
$17.0
6.5%
$16.0
$17.0
$17.0
$17.0
$17.0
7.0%
$15.0
$15.0
$16.0
$17.0
$17.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
5.0%
143.0%
143.0%
143.0%
143.0%
143.0%
5.5%
143.0%
143.0%
143.0%
143.0%
143.0%
5.9%
129.0%
129.0%
129.0%
129.0%
129.0%
6.5%
116.0%
129.0%
129.0%
129.0%
129.0%
7.0%
102.0%
102.0%
116.0%
129.0%
129.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for MOMO
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Hello Group Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Hello Group Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $17.3. This suggests it may be undervalued by 133.5% compared to its current price of around $7.4, using a WACC of 5.9% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Hello Group Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Hello Group Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 5.9%.
What is Hello Group Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, Hello Group Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥16.9B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.