Last Price$2.3(7.6%)
Market Cap$2,867.5M
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
9.4%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
RLX DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 1,549.4 1,068.3% | 3,819.7 146.5% | 8,521.0 123.1% | 5,332.8 (37.4%) | 1,244.0 (76.7%) | 2,681.8 115.6% | 3,833.0 42.9% | 4,663.4 21.7% | 5,559.1 19.2% | 6,490.2 16.7% | 7,417.7 14.3% | 8,295.4 11.8% | 9,073.1 9.4% | 9,700.6 6.9% | 10,133.0 4.5% | 10,335.7 2.0% |
% margin | 56.4 3.6% | 13.1 0.3% | 2,298.7 27.0% | 1,063.4 19.9% | (496.7) (39.9%) | 22.9 0.9% | 32.7 0.9% | 39.7 0.9% | 47.4 0.9% | 55.3 0.9% | 63.2 0.9% | 70.7 0.9% | 77.3 0.9% | 82.7 0.9% | 86.4 0.9% | 88.1 0.9% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 36.5 2.4% | (16.4) (0.4%) | 1,753.0 20.6% | 841.5 15.8% | (454.1) (36.5%) | 20.9 0.8% | 29.9 0.8% | 36.3 0.8% | 43.3 0.8% | 50.6 0.8% | 57.8 0.8% | 64.6 0.8% | 70.7 0.8% | 75.6 0.8% | 79.0 0.8% | 80.5 0.8% |
% of revenue | 13.4 0.9% | 62.4 1.6% | 113.5 1.3% | 164.5 3.1% | 96.6 7.8% | 108.9 4.1% | 155.6 4.1% | 189.4 4.1% | 225.7 4.1% | 263.5 4.1% | 301.2 4.1% | 336.8 4.1% | 368.4 4.1% | 393.9 4.1% | 411.5 4.1% | 419.7 4.1% |
% of revenue | (92.4) (6.0%) | (17.5) (0.5%) | (138.8) (1.6%) | (38.6) (0.7%) | (32.4) (2.6%) | (44.3) (1.7%) | (63.4) (1.7%) | (77.1) (1.7%) | (91.9) (1.7%) | (107.3) (1.7%) | (122.6) (1.7%) | (137.1) (1.7%) | (150.0) (1.7%) | (160.4) (1.7%) | (167.5) (1.7%) | (170.9) (1.7%) |
% of revenue | 210.7 13.6% | 1,756.0 46.0% | (628.2) (7.4%) | (839.8) (15.7%) | (307.9) (24.7%) | (427.9) (16.0%) | (611.6) (16.0%) | (744.1) (16.0%) | (887.0) (16.0%) | (1,035.6) (16.0%) | (1,183.5) (16.0%) | (1,323.6) (16.0%) | (1,447.7) (16.0%) | (1,547.8) (16.0%) | (1,616.8) (16.0%) | (1,649.1) (16.0%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 168.2 10.9% | 1,784.5 46.7% | 1,099.5 12.9% | 127.5 2.4% | (697.8) (56.1%) | (342.4) (12.8%) | (489.4) (12.8%) | (595.5) (12.8%) | (709.8) (12.8%) | (828.7) (12.8%) | (947.2) (12.8%) | (1,059.3) (12.8%) | (1,158.6) (12.8%) | (1,238.7) (12.8%) | (1,293.9) (12.8%) | (1,319.8) (12.8%) |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) |
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RLX DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
N/A
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
N/A
Discounted TV
% share of EV
N/A
70.0%
8,114.7M
Total Debt
53.9M
N/A
Shares outstanding
1,246.7M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
RLX DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥1,244.0M -> CN¥10.1B
23.3% CAGR
Operating Income
(CN¥496.7M) -> CN¥86.4M
N/A CAGR
FCFF
(CN¥697.8M) -> (CN¥1,293.9M)
6.4% CAGR
RLX DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
8.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
8.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
9.4%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
9.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
10.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
8.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
8.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
9.4%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
9.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
10.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
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FAQ
What is RLX Technology Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, RLX Technology Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $2.3, using a WACC of 9.4% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is RLX Technology Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, RLX Technology Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 9.4%.
What is RLX Technology Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, RLX Technology Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥0.0. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.