Last Price$24.0(0.6%)
Market Cap$8,322.5M
DCF value
$78.2
Undervalued (DCF value)
225.5%
Discount Rate
7.2%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
4/10
Good
SIRI DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 8,040.0 3.2% | 8,696.0 8.2% | 9,003.0 3.5% | 8,953.0 (0.6%) | 8,699.0 (2.8%) | 8,592.7 (1.2%) | 8,664.4 0.8% | 8,794.0 1.5% | 8,942.7 1.7% | 9,104.4 1.8% | 9,279.4 1.9% | 9,468.5 2.0% | 9,672.4 2.2% | 9,891.9 2.3% | 10,127.8 2.4% | 10,381.0 2.5% |
% margin | 858.0 23.2% | 2,015.0 23.2% | 2,036.0 22.6% | 1,946.0 21.7% | (1,517.0) (17.4%) | 1,669.1 19.4% | 1,683.1 19.4% | 1,708.2 19.4% | 1,737.1 19.4% | 1,768.5 19.4% | 1,802.5 19.4% | 1,839.3 19.4% | 1,878.9 19.4% | 1,921.5 19.4% | 1,967.3 19.4% | 2,016.5 19.4% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 261.4 3.3% | 1,735.1 20.0% | 1,538.7 17.1% | 1,612.7 18.0% | (1,346.2) (15.5%) | 1,481.2 17.2% | 1,493.6 17.2% | 1,515.9 17.2% | 1,541.5 17.2% | 1,569.4 17.2% | 1,599.6 17.2% | 1,632.2 17.2% | 1,667.3 17.2% | 1,705.2 17.2% | 1,745.8 17.2% | 1,789.5 17.2% |
% of revenue | 562.0 7.0% | 583.0 6.7% | 585.0 6.5% | 599.0 6.7% | 622.0 7.2% | 582.5 6.8% | 587.4 6.8% | 596.2 6.8% | 606.3 6.8% | 617.2 6.8% | 629.1 6.8% | 641.9 6.8% | 655.7 6.8% | 670.6 6.8% | 686.6 6.8% | 703.8 6.8% |
% of revenue | (350.0) (4.4%) | (388.0) (4.5%) | (426.0) (4.7%) | (650.0) (7.3%) | (728.0) (8.4%) | (583.2) (6.8%) | (588.0) (6.8%) | (596.8) (6.8%) | (606.9) (6.8%) | (617.9) (6.8%) | (629.8) (6.8%) | (642.6) (6.8%) | (656.5) (6.8%) | (671.4) (6.8%) | (687.4) (6.8%) | (704.5) (6.8%) |
% of revenue | (268.0) (3.3%) | (411.0) (4.7%) | (379.0) (4.2%) | (234.0) (2.6%) | 0.0 0.0% | (195.4) (2.3%) | (197.1) (2.3%) | (200.0) (2.3%) | (203.4) (2.3%) | (207.1) (2.3%) | (211.1) (2.3%) | (215.4) (2.3%) | (220.0) (2.3%) | (225.0) (2.3%) | (230.4) (2.3%) | (236.1) (2.3%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 513.1 6.4% | 1,519.1 17.5% | 1,318.7 14.6% | 1,327.7 14.8% | (1,452.2) (16.7%) | 1,285.1 15.0% | 1,295.8 15.0% | 1,315.2 15.0% | 1,337.5 15.0% | 1,361.7 15.0% | 1,387.8 15.0% | 1,416.1 15.0% | 1,446.6 15.0% | 1,479.4 15.0% | 1,514.7 15.0% | 1,552.6 15.0% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,030.6 | 1,168.3 | 1,106.6 | 1,050.2 | 997.8 | 949.1 | 903.8 | 861.7 | 822.4 | 785.8 |
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SIRI DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
9,676.3M
35.9%
Terminal Value (TV)
33.4B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
17.3B
64.1%
Total Debt
61.0M
27.1B
Shares outstanding
346.2M
FX rate
1.0
78.2
225.5% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
SIRI DCF Financials
Revenue
$8,699.0M -> $10.1B
1.5% CAGR
Operating Income
($1,517.0M) -> $1,967.3M
N/A CAGR
FCFF
($1,452.2M) -> $1,514.7M
N/A CAGR
SIRI DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
6.0%
$87.0
$94.0
$98.0
$98.0
$98.0
6.5%
$78.0
$84.0
$91.0
$96.0
$96.0
7.2%
$69.0
$73.0
$78.0
$84.0
$92.0
7.5%
$65.0
$69.0
$73.0
$78.0
$84.0
8.0%
$60.0
$63.0
$66.0
$70.0
$75.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
6.0%
262.0%
291.0%
308.0%
308.0%
308.0%
6.5%
224.0%
249.0%
279.0%
299.0%
299.0%
7.2%
187.0%
204.0%
224.0%
249.0%
283.0%
7.5%
170.0%
187.0%
204.0%
224.0%
249.0%
8.0%
150.0%
162.0%
175.0%
191.0%
212.0%
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FAQ
What is Sirius XM Holdings Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $78.2. This suggests it may be undervalued by 225.5% compared to its current price of around $24.0, using a WACC of 7.2% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Sirius XM Holdings Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 7.2%.
What is Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $27.0B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.