Last Price$348.9(4.8%)
Market Cap$16.9B
DCF value
$161.0
Overvalued (DCF value)
(53.9%)
Discount Rate
9.1%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
7/10
Good
ULTA DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Feb'20 Actual | Jan'21 Actual | Jan'22 Actual | Jan'23 Actual | Feb'24 Actual | Feb'25 Estimate | Feb'26 Estimate | Feb'27 Estimate | Feb'28 Estimate | Feb'29 Estimate | Feb'30 Estimate | Feb'31 Estimate | Feb'32 Estimate | Feb'33 Estimate | Feb'34 Estimate | Feb'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 7,398.1 10.1% | 6,152.0 (16.8%) | 8,630.9 40.3% | 10,208.6 18.3% | 11,207.3 9.8% | 11,264.5 0.5% | 11,680.0 3.7% | 12,277.9 5.1% | 12,892.7 5.0% | 13,548.6 5.1% | 14,179.5 4.7% | 14,778.6 4.2% | 15,339.3 3.8% | 15,855.0 3.4% | 16,319.8 2.9% | 16,727.8 2.5% |
% margin | 901.1 12.2% | 465.5 7.6% | 1,297.5 15.0% | 1,638.6 16.1% | 1,678.0 15.0% | 1,402.3 12.4% | 1,454.0 12.4% | 1,528.4 12.4% | 1,605.0 12.4% | 1,686.6 12.4% | 1,765.2 12.4% | 1,839.8 12.4% | 1,909.6 12.4% | 1,973.8 12.4% | 2,031.6 12.4% | 2,082.4 12.4% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 702.0 9.5% | 354.2 5.8% | 987.1 11.4% | 1,238.7 12.1% | 1,277.6 11.4% | 1,067.7 9.5% | 1,107.0 9.5% | 1,163.7 9.5% | 1,222.0 9.5% | 1,284.1 9.5% | 1,343.9 9.5% | 1,400.7 9.5% | 1,453.9 9.5% | 1,502.7 9.5% | 1,546.8 9.5% | 1,585.5 9.5% |
% of revenue | 295.6 4.0% | 297.8 4.8% | 268.5 3.1% | 241.4 2.4% | 243.8 2.2% | 287.3 2.6% | 297.9 2.6% | 313.1 2.6% | 328.8 2.6% | 345.5 2.6% | 361.6 2.6% | 376.9 2.6% | 391.2 2.6% | 404.3 2.6% | 416.2 2.6% | 426.6 2.6% |
% of revenue | (298.5) (4.0%) | (151.9) (2.5%) | (172.2) (2.0%) | (312.1) (3.1%) | (435.3) (3.9%) | (335.5) (3.0%) | (347.9) (3.0%) | (365.7) (3.0%) | (384.0) (3.0%) | (403.6) (3.0%) | (422.4) (3.0%) | (440.2) (3.0%) | (456.9) (3.0%) | (472.3) (3.0%) | (486.1) (3.0%) | (498.3) (3.0%) |
% of revenue | (215.5) (2.9%) | (14.3) (0.2%) | (498.2) (5.8%) | (369.2) (3.6%) | (481.6) (4.3%) | (513.9) (4.6%) | (532.8) (4.6%) | (560.1) (4.6%) | (588.1) (4.6%) | (618.1) (4.6%) | (646.8) (4.6%) | (674.2) (4.6%) | (699.8) (4.6%) | (723.3) (4.6%) | (744.5) (4.6%) | (763.1) (4.6%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 483.6 6.5% | 485.8 7.9% | 585.2 6.8% | 798.8 7.8% | 604.6 5.4% | 505.5 4.5% | 524.2 4.5% | 551.0 4.5% | 578.6 4.5% | 608.0 4.5% | 636.3 4.5% | 663.2 4.5% | 688.4 4.5% | 711.5 4.5% | 732.4 4.5% | 750.7 4.5% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 92.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 463.3 | 483.5 | 465.3 | 448.2 | 429.9 | 410.7 | 390.7 | 370.1 | 349.1 |
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ULTA DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
3,810.7M
41.3%
Terminal Value (TV)
11.4B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
5,417.2M
58.7%
9,227.9M
Total Debt
2,194.9M
7,799.5M
Shares outstanding
48.5M
FX rate
1.0
161.0
53.9% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
ULTA DCF Financials
Revenue
$11.2B -> $16.3B
3.8% CAGR
Operating Income
$1,678.0M -> $2,031.6M
1.9% CAGR
FCFF
$604.6M -> $732.4M
1.9% CAGR
ULTA DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
8.0%
$177.0
$187.0
$199.0
$214.0
$232.0
8.5%
$162.0
$170.0
$180.0
$192.0
$206.0
9.1%
$146.0
$153.0
$161.0
$170.0
$181.0
9.5%
$138.0
$143.0
$150.0
$158.0
$167.0
10.0%
$128.0
$133.0
$138.0
$145.0
$153.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
8.0%
(49.0%)
(46.0%)
(43.0%)
(39.0%)
(33.0%)
8.5%
(54.0%)
(51.0%)
(48.0%)
(45.0%)
(41.0%)
9.1%
(58.0%)
(56.0%)
(54.0%)
(51.0%)
(48.0%)
9.5%
(60.0%)
(59.0%)
(57.0%)
(55.0%)
(52.0%)
10.0%
(63.0%)
(62.0%)
(60.0%)
(58.0%)
(56.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for ULTA
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $161.0. This suggests it may be overvalued by (53.9%) compared to its current price of around $348.9, using a WACC of 9.1% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 9.1%.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $9,227.9M. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.