Last Price$20.3(5.8%)
Market Cap$9,685.6M
DCF value
N/A
Overvalued (DCF value)
(100.0%)
Discount Rate
10.0%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.5%
Stock quality
5/10
Good
XPEV DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 2,321.2 23,815.3% | 5,844.3 151.8% | 20,988.1 259.1% | 26,855.1 28.0% | 30,676.1 14.2% | 41,270.5 34.5% | 73,057.9 77.0% | 95,285.1 30.4% | 122,631.9 28.7% | 158,193.0 29.0% | 197,079.8 24.6% | 236,822.0 20.2% | 274,119.4 15.7% | 305,184.8 11.3% | 326,292.5 6.9% | 334,449.8 2.5% |
% margin | (3,780.6) (162.9%) | (4,293.7) (73.5%) | (6,579.4) (31.3%) | (8,705.5) (32.4%) | (10,889.4) (35.5%) | (20,039.3) (48.6%) | (35,474.0) (48.6%) | (46,266.6) (48.6%) | (59,545.1) (48.6%) | (76,812.1) (48.6%) | (95,694.0) (48.6%) | (114,991.2) (48.6%) | (133,101.3) (48.6%) | (148,185.4) (48.6%) | (158,434.4) (48.6%) | (162,395.3) (48.6%) |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | (3,780.6) (162.9%) | (4,295.7) (73.5%) | (6,614.8) (31.5%) | (8,729.1) (32.5%) | (10,928.2) (35.6%) | (20,110.6) (48.7%) | (35,600.3) (48.7%) | (46,431.3) (48.7%) | (59,757.1) (48.7%) | (77,085.6) (48.7%) | (96,034.7) (48.7%) | (115,400.6) (48.7%) | (133,575.2) (48.7%) | (148,713.0) (48.7%) | (158,998.5) (48.7%) | (162,973.5) (48.7%) |
% of revenue | 226.7 9.8% | 437.9 7.5% | 837.8 4.0% | 1,410.7 5.3% | 2,107.3 6.9% | 2,216.8 5.4% | 3,924.2 5.4% | 5,118.2 5.4% | 6,587.1 5.4% | 8,497.2 5.4% | 10,586.0 5.4% | 12,720.7 5.4% | 14,724.1 5.4% | 16,392.7 5.4% | 17,526.5 5.4% | 17,964.7 5.4% |
% of revenue | (1,908.4) (82.2%) | (1,362.4) (23.3%) | (4,318.1) (20.6%) | (4,679.9) (17.4%) | (2,311.5) (7.5%) | (6,264.2) (15.2%) | (11,089.1) (15.2%) | (14,462.8) (15.2%) | (18,613.7) (15.2%) | (24,011.3) (15.2%) | (29,913.8) (15.2%) | (35,946.0) (15.2%) | (41,607.2) (15.2%) | (46,322.5) (15.2%) | (49,526.3) (15.2%) | (50,764.5) (15.2%) |
% of revenue | (190.0) (8.2%) | 2,494.7 42.7% | 3,583.8 17.1% | (2,709.5) (10.1%) | 7,351.8 24.0% | 4,258.0 10.3% | 7,537.6 10.3% | 9,830.9 10.3% | 12,652.3 10.3% | 16,321.3 10.3% | 20,333.4 10.3% | 24,433.7 10.3% | 28,281.8 10.3% | 31,486.9 10.3% | 33,664.7 10.3% | 34,506.3 10.3% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | (5,652.2) (243.5%) | (2,725.5) (46.6%) | (6,511.3) (31.0%) | (14,707.8) (54.8%) | (3,780.6) (12.3%) | (19,900.1) (48.2%) | (35,227.5) (48.2%) | (45,945.1) (48.2%) | (59,131.4) (48.2%) | (76,278.4) (48.2%) | (95,029.1) (48.2%) | (114,192.3) (48.2%) | (132,176.6) (48.2%) | (147,155.8) (48.2%) | (157,333.7) (48.2%) | (161,267.0) (48.2%) |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 83.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) |
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XPEV DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 03, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
N/A
30.0%
Terminal Value (TV)
N/A
Discounted TV
% share of EV
N/A
70.0%
Total Debt
15.4B
N/A
Shares outstanding
478.3M
FX rate
N/A
N/A
100% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
XPEV DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥30.7B -> CN¥326.3B
26.7% CAGR
Operating Income
(CN¥10.9B) -> (CN¥158.4B)
30.7% CAGR
FCFF
(CN¥3,780.6M) -> (CN¥157.3B)
45.2% CAGR
XPEV DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
9.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
9.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
10.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
10.5%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
11.0%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
WACC
9.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
9.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
10.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
10.5%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
11.0%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for XPEV
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
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Peter Lynch Fair Value
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Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is XPeng Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 03, 2025, XPeng Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at N/A. This suggests it may be overvalued by (100.0%) compared to its current price of around $20.3, using a WACC of 10.0% and growth rates of 2.5%.
What is XPeng Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 03, 2025, XPeng Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 10.0%.
What is XPeng Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 03, 2025, XPeng Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥0.0. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.