Last Price$110.13.0%
Market Cap$57.8B
DCF value
$113.4
Undervalued (DCF value)
3.1%
Discount Rate
8.4%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
6/10
Good
PCAR DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Actual | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Estimate | Dec'35 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 18,728.5 (26.8%) | 23,522.3 25.6% | 28,819.7 22.5% | 35,127.4 21.9% | 31,564.3 (10.1%) | 32,761.7 3.8% | 36,790.0 12.3% | 34,760.3 (5.5%) | 38,723.4 11.4% | 42,618.3 10.1% | 46,332.5 8.7% | 49,748.2 7.4% | 52,747.6 6.0% | 55,219.4 4.7% | 57,065.4 3.3% | 58,206.7 2.0% |
% margin | 1,532.0 8.2% | 2,275.0 9.7% | 3,617.6 12.6% | 6,043.1 17.2% | 4,456.8 14.1% | 3,921.1 12.0% | 4,403.3 12.0% | 4,160.3 12.0% | 4,634.7 12.0% | 5,100.8 12.0% | 5,545.4 12.0% | 5,954.2 12.0% | 6,313.2 12.0% | 6,609.0 12.0% | 6,830.0 12.0% | 6,966.6 12.0% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 1,199.8 6.4% | 1,771.4 7.5% | 2,830.8 9.8% | 4,862.2 13.8% | 4,058.4 12.9% | 3,570.6 10.9% | 4,009.6 10.9% | 3,788.4 10.9% | 4,220.4 10.9% | 4,644.8 10.9% | 5,049.6 10.9% | 5,421.9 10.9% | 5,748.8 10.9% | 6,018.2 10.9% | 6,219.4 10.9% | 6,343.8 10.9% |
% of revenue | 901.5 4.8% | 867.8 3.7% | 807.1 2.8% | 903.6 2.6% | 916.9 2.9% | 904.0 2.8% | 1,015.1 2.8% | 959.1 2.8% | 1,068.5 2.8% | 1,175.9 2.8% | 1,278.4 2.8% | 1,372.7 2.8% | 1,455.4 2.8% | 1,523.6 2.8% | 1,574.6 2.8% | 1,606.1 2.8% |
% of revenue | (1,638.4) (8.7%) | (1,632.8) (6.9%) | (1,390.5) (4.8%) | (1,262.5) (3.6%) | (1,745.6) (5.5%) | (1,523.3) (4.6%) | (1,710.6) (4.6%) | (1,616.3) (4.6%) | (1,800.5) (4.6%) | (1,981.6) (4.6%) | (2,154.3) (4.6%) | (2,313.2) (4.6%) | (2,452.6) (4.6%) | (2,567.6) (4.6%) | (2,653.4) (4.6%) | (2,706.5) (4.6%) |
% of revenue | 891.2 4.8% | (239.0) (1.0%) | (809.5) (2.8%) | (1,081.5) (3.1%) | 0.1 0.0% | (642.9) (2.0%) | (722.0) (2.0%) | (682.1) (2.0%) | (759.9) (2.0%) | (836.4) (2.0%) | (909.2) (2.0%) | (976.3) (2.0%) | (1,035.1) (2.0%) | (1,083.6) (2.0%) | (1,119.9) (2.0%) | (1,142.3) (2.0%) |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 1,354.1 7.2% | 767.4 3.3% | 1,437.9 5.0% | 3,421.8 9.7% | 3,229.8 10.2% | 2,308.3 7.0% | 2,592.1 7.0% | 2,449.1 7.0% | 2,728.4 7.0% | 3,002.8 7.0% | 3,264.5 7.0% | 3,505.2 7.0% | 3,716.5 7.0% | 3,890.6 7.0% | 4,020.7 7.0% | 4,101.1 7.0% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 81.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | ||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,816.1 | 2,296.3 | 2,001.2 | 2,056.4 | 2,087.6 | 2,093.4 | 2,073.3 | 2,027.6 | 1,957.9 | 1,866.3 |
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PCAR DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 07, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
20.3B
40.6%
Terminal Value (TV)
63.9B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
29.7B
59.4%
9,649.9M
Total Debt
0.0
59.6B
Shares outstanding
525.5M
FX rate
1.0
113.4
3.1% undervalued
Equity Value Bridge
PCAR DCF Financials
Revenue
$31.6B -> $57.1B
6.1% CAGR
Operating Income
$4,456.8M -> $6,830.0M
4.4% CAGR
FCFF
$3,229.8M -> $4,020.7M
2.2% CAGR
PCAR DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
7.0%
$128.0
$134.0
$142.0
$151.0
$156.0
7.5%
$119.0
$124.0
$130.0
$137.0
$146.0
8.4%
$106.0
$109.0
$113.0
$118.0
$124.0
8.5%
$105.0
$108.0
$112.0
$117.0
$122.0
9.0%
$99.0
$102.0
$105.0
$109.0
$113.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
7.0%
16.0%
22.0%
29.0%
37.0%
42.0%
7.5%
8.0%
13.0%
18.0%
24.0%
33.0%
8.4%
(4.0%)
(1.0%)
3.0%
7.0%
13.0%
8.5%
(5.0%)
(2.0%)
2.0%
6.0%
11.0%
9.0%
(10.0%)
(7.0%)
(5.0%)
(1.0%)
3.0%
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for PCAR
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
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Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is PACCAR Inc DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 07, 2025, PACCAR Inc's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $113.4. This suggests it may be undervalued by 3.1% compared to its current price of around $110.1, using a WACC of 8.4% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is PACCAR Inc WACC?
As of Mar 07, 2025, PACCAR Inc's Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 8.4%.
What is PACCAR Inc Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 07, 2025, PACCAR Inc's Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately $50.0B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.