	Dec'19 Actual	Dec'20 Actual	Dec'21 Actual	Dec'22 Actual	Dec'23 Actual	Dec'24 Estimate	Dec'25 Estimate	Dec'26 Estimate	Dec'27 Estimate	Dec'28 Estimate	Dec'29 Estimate	Dec'30 Estimate	Dec'31 Estimate	Dec'32 Estimate	Dec'33 Estimate	Dec'34 Terminal
Revenue % growth	1,603.0 (29.5%)	1,144.4 (28.6%)	1,778.9 55.4%	2,597.9 46.0%	1,650.0 (36.5%)	1,654.0 0.2%	1,523.1 (7.9%)	1,693.6 11.2%	1,783.0 5.3%	1,796.3 0.7%	1,813.5 1.0%	1,834.6 1.2%	1,859.8 1.4%	1,889.2 1.6%	1,923.1 1.8%	1,961.5 2.0%
Operating income (EBIT) % margin	(13.6) (0.8%)	(74.2) (6.5%)	40.4 2.3%	686.7 26.4%	196.9 11.9%	11.1 0.7%	10.2 0.7%	11.4 0.7%	12.0 0.7%	12.1 0.7%	12.2 0.7%	12.3 0.7%	12.5 0.7%	12.7 0.7%	12.9 0.7%	13.2 0.7%
NOPAT % effective tax rate	(12.0) (0.7%)	(81.6) (7.1%)	38.6 2.2%	511.4 19.7%	124.3 7.5%	7.0 0.4%	6.5 0.4%	7.2 0.4%	7.6 0.4%	7.6 0.4%	7.7 0.4%	7.8 0.4%	7.9 0.4%	8.0 0.4%	8.2 0.4%	8.3 0.4%
D&A % of revenue	120.1 7.5%	108.2 9.5%	97.3 5.5%	81.6 3.1%	73.5 4.5%	72.0 4.4%	66.3 4.4%	73.8 4.4%	77.7 4.4%	78.2 4.4%	79.0 4.4%	79.9 4.4%	81.0 4.4%	82.3 4.4%	83.8 4.4%	85.4 4.4%
Capex % of revenue	(32.9) (2.1%)	(32.9) (2.9%)	(27.6) (1.6%)	(53.3) (2.1%)	(86.5) (5.2%)	(48.8) (2.9%)	(44.9) (2.9%)	(49.9) (2.9%)	(52.6) (2.9%)	(53.0) (2.9%)	(53.5) (2.9%)	(54.1) (2.9%)	(54.8) (2.9%)	(55.7) (2.9%)	(56.7) (2.9%)	(57.8) (2.9%)
Change in Working Capital % of revenue	28.0 1.7%	116.0 10.1%	(134.8) (7.6%)	(332.5) (12.8%)	(11.5) (0.7%)	(116.2) (7.0%)	(107.0) (7.0%)	(119.0) (7.0%)	(125.3) (7.0%)	(126.2) (7.0%)	(127.4) (7.0%)	(128.9) (7.0%)	(130.6) (7.0%)	(132.7) (7.0%)	(135.1) (7.0%)	(137.8) (7.0%)
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue	103.2 6.4%	109.7 9.6%	(26.5) (1.5%)	207.1 8.0%	99.9 6.1%	(85.9) (5.2%)	(79.1) (5.2%)	(87.9) (5.2%)	(92.6) (5.2%)	(93.3) (5.2%)	(94.2) (5.2%)	(95.3) (5.2%)	(96.6) (5.2%)	(98.1) (5.2%)	(99.9) (5.2%)	(101.8) (5.2%)
% of FCFF used in calculation
Discount period
Discount factor
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF)

GSM DCF Value

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GSM Earnings Power Value and Enterprise Value

Annual

LTM

Enterprise Value Breakdown

EPV and MIVoG as % of EV

GSM Reverse DCF

Implied FCF growth

Implied Revenue growth

Reverse DCF Assumptions and Outputs

as of Sep 30, 2024

LTM Free Cash Flow

283.3M

Long-Term growth rate

2.0%

Discount rate

N/A

FX rate

1.0

Reverse DCF Value

N/A

Last share price

4.6

Implied FCF growth 1-10Y

0.0%

Implied Free Cash Flow growth vs Historical average vs Industry growth

Competing with GSM Intrinsic Value

Overview

Ratings

Intrinsic Value

Valuation

Growth

Profitability

Health

Capital allocation

Momentum

Earnings

Dividends

Company name	Market Cap	Enterprise Value	Intrinsic Value	DCF Value	Relative value	Ben Graham Revised fair value	Peter Lynch fair value	Earnings Power Value (EPV), % of EV	Market-Implied Value of Growth (MIVoG), % of EV	Reverse DCF (implied FCF growth)	Reverse DCF (implied Revenue growth)
Ferroglobe PLCGSM GSM	$734.5M	$695.0M	$10.7 175.8% undervalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	$10.7 175.8% undervalued	Negative 275.9% overvalued	Negative 129.9% overvalued	N/A	N/A	0.0%	0.0%
Rio Tinto GroupRIO RIO	$100.1B	$106.8B	$108.2 74.9% undervalued	$141.4 129.0% undervalued	$75.0 21.2% undervalued	Negative 118.7% overvalued	$114.2 84.6% undervalued	279.9%	(179.9%)	(13.8%)	(15.3%)
BHP Group LimitedBHP BHP	$63.1B	$73.5B	$140.3 181.8% undervalued	$163.6 229.0% undervalued	$117.0 135.0% undervalued	$692.6 1,291.3% undervalued	$1,375.5 2,663.1% undervalued	248.9%	(148.9%)	(34.7%)	(38.4%)
Vale S.A.VALE VALE	$39.1B	$51.8B	$31.7 237.2% undervalued	$41.7 343.0% undervalued	$21.7 131.3% undervalued	$72.6 672.0% undervalued	$54.4 478.7% undervalued	196.6%	(96.6%)	(0.5%)	(6.9%)
Teck Resources LimitedTECK TECK	$19.6B	$21.3B	$21.3 44.7% overvalued	$13.8 64.0% overvalued	$28.8 25.3% overvalued	$222.2 476.9% undervalued	$50.3 30.6% undervalued	15.3%	84.7%	(100.0%)	(100.0%)
MP Materials Corp.MP MP	$3,978.3M	$3,139.0M	$8.7 63.7% overvalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	$8.7 63.7% overvalued	Negative 134.6% overvalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	(66.3%)	166.3%	(100.0%)	(100.0%)
Materion CorporationMTRN MTRN	$1,754.5M	$2,254.8M	$94.8 11.6% undervalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	$94.8 11.6% undervalued	$475.8 460.3% undervalued	$109.0 28.3% undervalued	10.4%	89.6%	41.2%	(100.0%)
Sitio Royalties Corp.STR STR	$1,574.5M	$2,656.5M	$18.6 4.1% overvalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	$18.6 4.1% overvalued	$7.5 61.2% overvalued	$12.4 36.0% overvalued	96.5%	3.5%	(21.9%)	(20.1%)
Sigma Lithium CorporationSGML SGML	$1,199.2M	$1,310.5M	$37.9 255.3% undervalued	$68.1 539.0% undervalued	$7.7 28.0% overvalued	Negative 158.2% overvalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	0.9%	99.1%	38.8%	(100.0%)
Skeena Resources LimitedSKE SKE	$1,005.4M	$957.7M	$0.5 94.6% overvalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	$0.5 94.6% overvalued	Negative 233.5% overvalued	$59.2 523.6% undervalued	(69.5%)	169.5%	(100.0%)	0.0%
Nexa Resources S.A.NEXA NEXA	$691.3M	$2,076.0M	$20.6 297.6% undervalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	$20.6 297.6% undervalued	$120.0 2,221.0% undervalued	N/A 0.0% overvalued	230.0%	(130.0%)	(100.0%)	(100.0%)