STLD Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic Value of STLD Overview

Key Highlights:
As of Mar 11, 2025 STLD Relative Value is $97.7, which is overvalued by 19.1%, compared to current share price of $120.8.
As of Mar 11, 2025 STLD DCF Value is $148.5, which is undervalued by 22.9%, compared to current share price of $120.8.
Methodology
Price per share, $
Current share price
120.8

STLD Historical Intrinsic Value

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STLD Valuation Metrics

LTM
NTM
1Y Forward
2Y Forward
EV/Revenue
1.2x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
EV/Gross Profit
7.6x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
EV/EBIT
10.8x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
EV/EBITDA
8.5x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
EV/FCF
(895.5x) (as of Mar 11, 2025)
EV/OCF
11.4x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/Revenue
1.1x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/Gross Profit
6.7x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/EBIT
9.5x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/EBITDA
7.5x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/FCF
(789.4x) (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/OCF
10.1x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/E
12.1x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
P/BV
2.1x (as of Mar 11, 2025)
PEG 1Y
(1.2x) (as of Mar 11, 2025)

STLD DCF Model

Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
Dec'20 ActualDec'21 ActualDec'22 ActualDec'23 ActualDec'24 ActualDec'25 EstimateDec'26 EstimateDec'27 EstimateDec'28 EstimateDec'29 EstimateDec'30 EstimateDec'31 EstimateDec'32 EstimateDec'33 EstimateDec'34 EstimateDec'35 Terminal
% growth
9,601.5
(8.4%)
18,408.9
91.7%
22,260.8
20.9%
18,795.3
(15.6%)
17,540.4
(6.7%)
17,991.6
2.6%
19,483.8
8.3%
20,558.2
5.5%
22,698.1
10.4%
22,865.4
0.7%
23,081.9
0.9%
23,349.2
1.2%
23,668.7
1.4%
24,042.4
1.6%
24,472.6
1.8%
24,962.0
2.0%
847.1
8.8%
4,301.1
23.4%
5,091.8
22.9%
3,151.2
16.8%
1,943.0
11.1%
3,034.3
16.9%
3,286.0
16.9%
3,467.2
16.9%
3,828.1
16.9%
3,856.3
16.9%
3,892.8
16.9%
3,937.9
16.9%
3,991.8
16.9%
4,054.8
16.9%
4,127.4
16.9%
4,209.9
16.9%
NOPAT
% effective tax rate
685.5
7.1%
3,317.8
18.0%
3,934.2
17.7%
2,415.4
12.9%
1,518.8
8.7%
2,371.8
13.2%
2,568.6
13.2%
2,710.2
13.2%
2,992.3
13.2%
3,014.4
13.2%
3,042.9
13.2%
3,078.1
13.2%
3,120.3
13.2%
3,169.5
13.2%
3,226.2
13.2%
3,290.8
13.2%
% of revenue
325.8
3.4%
347.7
1.9%
384.2
1.7%
437.8
2.3%
478.9
2.7%
406.9
2.3%
440.7
2.3%
465.0
2.3%
513.4
2.3%
517.2
2.3%
522.1
2.3%
528.1
2.3%
535.3
2.3%
543.8
2.3%
553.5
2.3%
564.6
2.3%
% of revenue
(1,198.1)
(12.5%)
(1,006.2)
(5.5%)
(908.9)
(4.1%)
(1,657.9)
(8.8%)
(1,868.0)
(10.6%)
(1,412.6)
(7.9%)
(1,529.7)
(7.9%)
(1,614.1)
(7.9%)
(1,782.1)
(7.9%)
(1,795.2)
(7.9%)
(1,812.2)
(7.9%)
(1,833.2)
(7.9%)
(1,858.3)
(7.9%)
(1,887.6)
(7.9%)
(1,921.4)
(7.9%)
(1,959.8)
(7.9%)
(63.4)
(0.7%)
(1,766.8)
(9.6%)
102.1
0.5%
517.1
2.8%
(202.9)
(1.2%)
123.1
0.7%
133.3
0.7%
140.7
0.7%
155.3
0.7%
156.5
0.7%
158.0
0.7%
159.8
0.7%
162.0
0.7%
164.5
0.7%
167.5
0.7%
170.8
0.7%
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)
% of revenue
(250.2)
(2.6%)
892.4
4.8%
3,511.5
15.8%
1,712.4
9.1%
(73.1)
(0.4%)
1,489.4
8.3%
1,612.9
8.3%
1,701.8
8.3%
1,879.0
8.3%
1,892.8
8.3%
1,910.8
8.3%
1,932.9
8.3%
1,959.3
8.3%
1,990.3
8.3%
2,025.9
8.3%
2,066.4
8.3%
% of FCFF used in calculation
80.8%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Discount period
0.50
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.50
9.50
Discount factor
0.96
0.88
0.81
0.74
0.68
0.62
0.57
0.52
0.48
0.44
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF)
1,152.9
1,417.2
1,371.9
1,389.6
1,284.2
1,189.3
1,103.7
1,026.4
956.5
893.2

STLD DCF Value

DCF Value Calculation

as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
11.8B
47.5%
Terminal Value (TV)
29.5B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
13.0B
52.5%
Total Debt
3,231.0M
Shares outstanding
153.6M
FX rate
1.0
20.2% undervalued

Equity Value Bridge

STLD Earnings Power Value and Enterprise Value

Annual
LTM
Enterprise Value Breakdown
EPV and MIVoG as % of EV

STLD Reverse DCF

Implied FCF growth
Implied Revenue growth

Reverse DCF Assumptions and Outputs

as of Dec 31, 2024
Long-Term growth rate
2.0%
FX rate
1.0
Last share price
114.1
Implied FCF growth 1-10Y
(100.0%)

Implied Free Cash Flow growth vs Historical average vs Industry growth

Competing with STLD Intrinsic Value

Overview
Ratings
Intrinsic Value
Valuation
Growth
Profitability
Health
Capital allocation
Momentum
Earnings
Dividends
Company name
Market Cap
Enterprise Value
Intrinsic Value
DCF Value
Relative value
Ben Graham Revised fair value
Peter Lynch fair value
Earnings Power Value (EPV), % of EV
Market-Implied Value of Growth (MIVoG), % of EV
Reverse DCF (implied FCF growth)
Reverse DCF (implied Revenue growth)
$18.6B
$21.0B
$120.7
0.0% overvalued
$145.2
20.0% undervalued
$96.3
20.2% overvalued
Negative
119.9% overvalued
$129.4
7.1% undervalued
86.6%
13.4%
(100.0%)
16.1%
$30.4B
$33.2B
$177.9
36.9% undervalued
$251.4
94.0% undervalued
$104.3
19.7% overvalued
Negative
120.7% overvalued
$129.8
0.1% overvalued
88.2%
11.8%
13.2%
1.3%
$24.0B
$29.1B
$44.5
38.8% undervalued
$39.3
23.0% undervalued
$49.7
55.0% undervalued
$169.8
429.8% undervalued
$140.8
339.0% undervalued
92.8%
7.2%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
$16.6B
$16.6B
$87.8
72.8% undervalued
N/A
$87.8
72.8% undervalued
Negative
1,443.6% overvalued
Negative
365.7% overvalued
280.4%
(180.4%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
$15.3B
$16.4B
$257.6
8.5% overvalued
$339.5
21.0% undervalued
$175.7
37.6% overvalued
$202.4
28.1% overvalued
$207.0
26.5% overvalued
72.5%
27.5%
(1.4%)
(1.6%)
$8,182.8M
$7,033.8M
$58.2
57.0% undervalued
N/A
$58.2
57.0% undervalued
$46.9
26.6% undervalued
$70.1
89.1% undervalued
36.1%
63.9%
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
$6,003.2M
$6,861.1M
$1.1
62.7% overvalued
$0.6
78.0% overvalued
$1.5
47.5% overvalued
Negative
866.5% overvalued
Negative
927.1% overvalued
110.7%
(10.7%)
(6.4%)
0.1%
$5,052.6M
$5,383.6M
$51.4
14.5% undervalued
$54.6
22.0% undervalued
$48.1
7.2% undervalued
Negative
137.4% overvalued
$5.9
86.8% overvalued
57.7%
42.3%
(0.4%)
(1.8%)
$4,083.3M
$11.1B
$44.6
394.8% undervalued
$71.6
694.0% undervalued
$17.6
95.4% undervalued
$93.8
939.7% undervalued
N/A
(56.2%)
156.2%
(100.0%)
(8.0%)
$1,956.0M
$7,486.7M
$2.9
96.0% undervalued
N/A
$2.9
96.0% undervalued
Negative
2,019.3% overvalued
N/A
2,400.2%
(2,300.2%)
(41.8%)
(41.8%)
$1,289.0M
$1,424.0M
$33.9
29.5% undervalued
$31.0
18.0% undervalued
$36.7
40.4% undervalued
Negative
361.5% overvalued
$41.1
57.1% undervalued
64.7%
35.3%
5.0%
5.5%

Intrinsic Valuation Tools

Wondering how to calculate intrinsic value of a stock? Use our intrinsic value tools to simplify complex valuation concepts and save time.

FAQ

What is the DCF value of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)?

As of today, DCF Value of Steel Dynamics, Inc. is $145.1, which is undervalued by 20.2%, compared to the current market share price of $120.8

How was the DCF Value calculated?

Step 1: Calculating Intrinsic Enterprise Value DCF Value was calculated by estimating Steel Dynamics, Inc. future free cash flow and then discounting it, using a chosen discount rate to determine Intrinsic Enterprise Value of $0.0B Step 2: Balance Sheet Adjustments Intrinsic Equity Value is calculated by subtracting Balance Sheet items (Cash & Equivalents, Short-term investments and Total Debt) from previously calculated Intrinsic Enterprise Value. This Intrinsic Equity Value is then divided by the total number of outstanding shares of 0 to determine DCF Value of $145.1

What is the Relative value of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)?

As of today, Relative Value of Steel Dynamics, Inc. is $96.3, which is overvalued by 20.2%, compared to the current market share price of $120.8

How was the Relative Value calculated?

Relative Value was calculated by applying various valuation multiples (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E etc.) to Steel Dynamics, Inc. financials to determine Relative Value of $96.3

What is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) discount rate?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. current Cost of Equity is 10.5%, while its WACC stands at 9.0%. Cost of Equity is used to value equity, while discounting free cash flow to equity holders (such as Net Income or Free Cash Flow to Equity). Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is used to value the entire firm, while discounting cash flows available to both debt and equity holders (NOPAT or Free Cash Flow to the Firm)

How is Cost of Equity for Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) calculated?

The Cost of Equity represents the return a company must offer investors to compensate for the risk of investing in its stock. It's calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which combines the risk-free rate, the stock's beta, and the equity risk premium (ERP). This model considers the inherent risk of investing in the stock compared to a risk-free investment and the market's overall risk. Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + Beta x Effective Risk Premium (ERP) 10.5% = 4.3% + 1.4 x 4.6%

How is WACC for Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) calculated?

WACC, or Weighted Average Cost of Capital, is a calculation that reflects the average rate of return a company is expected to pay its security holders to finance its assets. It is a critical measure in financial analysis for valuing a company's entire operations. The WACC formula combines the costs of equity and debt, weighted by their respective proportions in the company's capital structure. WACC = Cost of Equity x Equity Weight in Total Capital + Cost of Debt x (1 - Effective Tax Rate) Debt Weight in Total Capital 9.0% = 10.5% x 14.8% + 0.5% x (1 - 14.0%) x 85.2%