ZTO Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic Value of ZTO Overview

Key Highlights:
As of Feb 25, 2025 ZTO Relative Value is $27.7, which is undervalued by 40.9%, compared to current share price of $19.6.
As of Feb 25, 2025 ZTO DCF Value is $8.4, which is overvalued by 57.2%, compared to current share price of $19.6.
Methodology
Price per share, $
Current share price
19.6

ZTO Historical Intrinsic Value

1W
1M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
Share Price
Intrinsic Value
Drawdown
Total Return
vs SP500
vs NASDAQ
$0.0$5.0$10.0$15.0$20.0$25.0$30.0$35.0Jan'21Jan'22Jan'23Jan'24Jan'25
Value Sense
Intrinsic Value
ZTO

ZTO Valuation Metrics

LTM
NTM
1Y Forward
2Y Forward
EV/Revenue
2.7x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x2.0x4.0x6.0x8.0x20212022202320242025
EV/Gross Profit
8.6x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x20212022202320242025
EV/EBIT
10.2x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x40.0x20212022202320242025
EV/EBITDA
8.7x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x20212022202320242025
EV/FCF
33.5x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
(500.0x)0.0x500.0x1,000.0x20212022202320242025
EV/OCF
9.0x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x20212022202320242025
P/Revenue
2.8x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x2.0x4.0x6.0x8.0x20212022202320242025
P/Gross Profit
9.0x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x20212022202320242025
P/EBIT
10.6x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x40.0x20212022202320242025
P/EBITDA
9.0x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x20212022202320242025
P/FCF
34.9x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
(500.0x)0.0x500.0x1,000.0x20212022202320242025
P/OCF
9.4x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x40.0x20212022202320242025
P/E
13.6x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x40.0x20212022202320242025
P/BV
1.9x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x2.0x4.0x20212022202320242025
PEG 1Y
1.2x (as of Feb 25, 2025)
0.0x1.0x2.0x3.0x4.0x20212022202320242025

ZTO DCF Model

Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
Dec'19 ActualDec'20 ActualDec'21 ActualDec'22 ActualDec'23 ActualDec'24 EstimateDec'25 EstimateDec'26 EstimateDec'27 EstimateDec'28 EstimateDec'29 EstimateDec'30 EstimateDec'31 EstimateDec'32 EstimateDec'33 EstimateDec'34 Terminal
% growth
22,109.9
25.6%
25,214.3
14.0%
30,405.8
20.6%
35,377.0
16.3%
38,418.9
8.6%
42,962.0
11.8%
47,593.5
10.8%
52,859.5
11.1%
56,044.6
6.0%
59,099.2
5.5%
61,980.6
4.9%
64,645.9
4.3%
67,054.1
3.7%
69,166.4
3.2%
70,947.5
2.6%
72,366.5
2.0%
5,462.8
24.7%
3,356.6
13.3%
3,645.1
12.0%
7,736.5
21.9%
10,007.9
26.0%
8,811.1
20.5%
9,761.0
20.5%
10,841.0
20.5%
11,494.2
20.5%
12,120.7
20.5%
12,711.6
20.5%
13,258.2
20.5%
13,752.1
20.5%
14,185.3
20.5%
14,550.6
20.5%
14,841.6
20.5%
NOPAT
% effective tax rate
4,591.1
20.8%
2,896.7
11.5%
3,006.5
9.9%
6,211.6
17.6%
8,193.5
21.3%
7,213.7
16.8%
7,991.3
16.8%
8,875.5
16.8%
9,410.3
16.8%
9,923.2
16.8%
10,407.0
16.8%
10,854.6
16.8%
11,258.9
16.8%
11,613.6
16.8%
11,912.7
16.8%
12,150.9
16.8%
% of revenue
1,264.6
5.7%
1,840.5
7.3%
2,221.8
7.3%
2,670.5
7.5%
2,875.2
7.5%
3,199.2
7.4%
3,544.1
7.4%
3,936.2
7.4%
4,173.4
7.4%
4,400.9
7.4%
4,615.4
7.4%
4,813.9
7.4%
4,993.2
7.4%
5,150.5
7.4%
5,283.2
7.4%
5,388.8
7.4%
% of revenue
(5,226.4)
(23.6%)
(9,208.0)
(36.5%)
(9,327.8)
(30.7%)
(7,412.7)
(21.0%)
(6,669.8)
(17.4%)
(9,880.1)
(23.0%)
(10,945.2)
(23.0%)
(12,156.2)
(23.0%)
(12,888.7)
(23.0%)
(13,591.2)
(23.0%)
(14,253.8)
(23.0%)
(14,866.8)
(23.0%)
(15,420.6)
(23.0%)
(15,906.4)
(23.0%)
(16,316.0)
(23.0%)
(16,642.3)
(23.0%)
(260.2)
(1.2%)
(1,393.5)
(5.5%)
139.1
0.5%
1,780.2
5.0%
1,317.1
3.4%
1,277.1
3.0%
1,414.8
3.0%
1,571.3
3.0%
1,666.0
3.0%
1,756.8
3.0%
1,842.4
3.0%
1,921.7
3.0%
1,993.2
3.0%
2,056.0
3.0%
2,109.0
3.0%
2,151.2
3.0%
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)
% of revenue
369.0
1.7%
(5,864.3)
(23.3%)
(3,960.4)
(13.0%)
3,249.6
9.2%
5,716.0
14.9%
1,809.9
4.2%
2,005.0
4.2%
2,226.8
4.2%
2,361.0
4.2%
2,489.7
4.2%
2,611.1
4.2%
2,723.3
4.2%
2,824.8
4.2%
2,913.8
4.2%
2,988.8
4.2%
3,048.6
4.2%
% of FCFF used in calculation
100.0%
84.9%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Discount period
0.50
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.50
Discount factor
0.96
0.90
0.83
0.78
0.72
0.67
0.62
0.58
0.54
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF)
1,642.1
1,996.9
1,968.8
1,930.7
1,882.9
1,826.2
1,761.5
1,689.7
1,611.7

ZTO DCF Value

DCF Value Calculation

as of Feb 24, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
16.3B
35.5%
Terminal Value (TV)
55.1B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
29.7B
64.5%
Total Debt
15.4B
Shares outstanding
827.7M
FX rate
0.1
57.6% overvalued

Equity Value Bridge

Sum ofDFCFDiscountedterminalvalueEnterprisevalueCash &Short-TermInvestmentsTotal debtEquityvalue16.3B29.7B46.0B19.9B15.4B50.5B

ZTO Earnings Power Value and Enterprise Value

Annual
LTM
Enterprise Value Breakdown
EPV and MIVoG as % of EV
$0.0$50.0B$100.0B$150.0BDec'19Jun'20Dec'20Jun'21Dec'21Jun'22Dec'22Jun'23Dec'23Jun'24
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Market-Implied Value of Growth (MIVoG)

ZTO Reverse DCF

Implied FCF growth
Implied Revenue growth

Reverse DCF Assumptions and Outputs

as of Sep 30, 2024
Long-Term growth rate
2.0%
FX rate
0.1
Last share price
24.8
Implied FCF growth 1-10Y
11.3%

Implied Free Cash Flow growth vs Historical average vs Industry growth

ZTOImplied FCF growthZTO3Y Free Cash Flow CAGRIntegrated Freight & Logistics3Y Median Historical FCF growth11.3%0.0%(5.1%)

Competing with ZTO Intrinsic Value

Overview
Ratings
Intrinsic Value
Valuation
Growth
Profitability
Health
Capital allocation
Momentum
Earnings
Dividends
Company name
Market Cap
Enterprise Value
Intrinsic Value
DCF Value
Relative value
Ben Graham Revised fair value
Peter Lynch fair value
Earnings Power Value (EPV), % of EV
Market-Implied Value of Growth (MIVoG), % of EV
Reverse DCF (implied FCF growth)
Reverse DCF (implied Revenue growth)
$16.2B
$15.6B
$27.7
41.0% undervalued
N/A
$27.7
41.0% undervalued
$16.8
14.2% overvalued
$22.9
16.8% undervalued
90.5%
9.5%
11.3%
13.6%
$100.7B
$120.0B
$163.6
38.6% undervalued
N/A
$163.6
38.6% undervalued
$12.1
89.8% overvalued
$76.1
35.5% overvalued
70.1%
29.9%
0.2%
2.8%
$61.6B
$79.5B
$422.3
64.9% undervalued
N/A
$422.3
64.9% undervalued
$240.9
5.9% overvalued
$260.4
1.7% undervalued
57.3%
42.7%
3.5%
2.8%
$16.5B
$15.9B
$110.6
7.7% overvalued
N/A
$110.6
7.7% overvalued
$76.8
35.9% overvalued
$27.4
77.2% overvalued
59.3%
40.7%
6.5%
6.0%
$16.3B
$17.7B
$126.4
21.3% overvalued
N/A
$126.4
21.3% overvalued
Negative
138.7% overvalued
Negative
111.7% overvalued
38.4%
61.6%
13.7%
21.1%
$14.0B
$17.9B
$49.1
59.1% overvalued
N/A
$49.1
59.1% overvalued
$90.0
25.0% overvalued
$91.3
23.9% overvalued
32.2%
67.8%
64.4%
(100.0%)
$12.2B
$13.8B
$106.6
6.6% undervalued
N/A
$106.6
6.6% undervalued
$222.9
122.9% undervalued
$136.9
36.9% undervalued
52.7%
47.3%
6.8%
11.0%
$5,528.8M
$4,995.3M
$161.6
2.0% undervalued
N/A
$161.6
2.0% undervalued
Negative
152.6% overvalued
Negative
114.3% overvalued
39.4%
60.6%
9.4%
6.8%
$4,825.0M
$4,829.7M
$79.9
95.7% undervalued
N/A
$79.9
95.7% undervalued
$46.5
13.8% undervalued
$23.8
41.9% overvalued
29.7%
70.3%
1.9%
0.0%
$2,520.4M
$2,930.7M
$67.4
59.1% undervalued
N/A
$67.4
59.1% undervalued
Negative
172.2% overvalued
Negative
122.0% overvalued
49.1%
50.9%
0.1%
(3.9%)
$1,909.4M
$3,470.7M
$13.1
21.3% undervalued
N/A
$13.1
21.3% undervalued
$107.0
892.4% undervalued
N/A
(127.8%)
227.8%
(42.2%)
(42.2%)

Intrinsic Valuation Tools

Wondering how to calculate intrinsic value of a stock? Use our intrinsic value tools to simplify complex valuation concepts and save time.

FAQ

What is the DCF value of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)?

As of today, DCF Value of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is $0.0, which is undervalued by 0.0%, compared to the current market share price of $19.6

How was the DCF Value calculated?

Step 1: Calculating Intrinsic Enterprise Value DCF Value was calculated by estimating ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. future free cash flow and then discounting it, using a chosen discount rate to determine Intrinsic Enterprise Value of $0.0B Step 2: Balance Sheet Adjustments Intrinsic Equity Value is calculated by subtracting Balance Sheet items (Cash & Equivalents, Short-term investments and Total Debt) from previously calculated Intrinsic Enterprise Value. This Intrinsic Equity Value is then divided by the total number of outstanding shares of 0 to determine DCF Value of $0.0

What is the Relative value of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)?

As of today, Relative Value of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is $27.7, which is undervalued by 41.0%, compared to the current market share price of $19.6

How was the Relative Value calculated?

Relative Value was calculated by applying various valuation multiples (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E etc.) to ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. financials to determine Relative Value of $27.7

What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) discount rate?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. current Cost of Equity is 8.7%, while its WACC stands at 7.5%. Cost of Equity is used to value equity, while discounting free cash flow to equity holders (such as Net Income or Free Cash Flow to Equity). Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is used to value the entire firm, while discounting cash flows available to both debt and equity holders (NOPAT or Free Cash Flow to the Firm)

How is Cost of Equity for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) calculated?

The Cost of Equity represents the return a company must offer investors to compensate for the risk of investing in its stock. It's calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which combines the risk-free rate, the stock's beta, and the equity risk premium (ERP). This model considers the inherent risk of investing in the stock compared to a risk-free investment and the market's overall risk. Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + Beta x Effective Risk Premium (ERP) 8.7% = 4.4% + 0.7 x 4.6%

How is WACC for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) calculated?

WACC, or Weighted Average Cost of Capital, is a calculation that reflects the average rate of return a company is expected to pay its security holders to finance its assets. It is a critical measure in financial analysis for valuing a company's entire operations. The WACC formula combines the costs of equity and debt, weighted by their respective proportions in the company's capital structure. WACC = Cost of Equity x Equity Weight in Total Capital + Cost of Debt x (1 - Effective Tax Rate) Debt Weight in Total Capital 7.5% = 8.7% x 13.3% + 0.4% x (1 - 19.1%) x 86.7%