Last Price$19.7(1.7%)
Market Cap$16.3B
DCF value
$10.3
Overvalued (DCF value)
(47.8%)
Discount Rate
7.4%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.0%
Stock quality
7/10
Great
ZTO DCF Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
NOPAT Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
Net Income Model
Millions
Billions
| Dec'19 Actual | Dec'20 Actual | Dec'21 Actual | Dec'22 Actual | Dec'23 Actual | Dec'24 Estimate | Dec'25 Estimate | Dec'26 Estimate | Dec'27 Estimate | Dec'28 Estimate | Dec'29 Estimate | Dec'30 Estimate | Dec'31 Estimate | Dec'32 Estimate | Dec'33 Estimate | Dec'34 Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% growth | 22,109.9 25.6% | 25,214.3 14.0% | 30,405.8 20.6% | 35,377.0 16.3% | 38,418.9 8.6% | 42,974.6 11.9% | 48,056.0 11.8% | 53,372.6 11.1% | 59,856.9 12.1% | 66,261.2 10.7% | 72,390.0 9.2% | 78,036.1 7.8% | 82,991.1 6.3% | 87,057.5 4.9% | 90,060.9 3.4% | 91,862.1 2.0% |
% margin | 5,462.8 24.7% | 3,356.6 13.3% | 3,645.1 12.0% | 7,736.5 21.9% | 10,007.9 26.0% | 8,813.7 20.5% | 9,855.8 20.5% | 10,946.2 20.5% | 12,276.1 20.5% | 13,589.5 20.5% | 14,846.5 20.5% | 16,004.4 20.5% | 17,020.7 20.5% | 17,854.6 20.5% | 18,470.6 20.5% | 18,840.0 20.5% |
NOPAT % effective tax rate | 4,591.1 20.8% | 2,896.7 11.5% | 3,006.5 9.9% | 6,211.6 17.6% | 8,193.5 21.3% | 7,215.8 16.8% | 8,069.0 16.8% | 8,961.7 16.8% | 10,050.5 16.8% | 11,125.8 16.8% | 12,154.9 16.8% | 13,102.9 16.8% | 13,934.9 16.8% | 14,617.7 16.8% | 15,122.0 16.8% | 15,424.4 16.8% |
% of revenue | 1,264.6 5.7% | 1,840.5 7.3% | 2,221.8 7.3% | 2,670.5 7.5% | 2,875.2 7.5% | 3,200.1 7.4% | 3,578.5 7.4% | 3,974.4 7.4% | 4,457.3 7.4% | 4,934.2 7.4% | 5,390.6 7.4% | 5,811.0 7.4% | 6,180.0 7.4% | 6,482.8 7.4% | 6,706.4 7.4% | 6,840.6 7.4% |
% of revenue | (5,226.4) (23.6%) | (9,208.0) (36.5%) | (9,327.8) (30.7%) | (7,412.7) (21.0%) | (6,669.8) (17.4%) | (9,883.0) (23.0%) | (11,051.6) (23.0%) | (12,274.2) (23.0%) | (13,765.5) (23.0%) | (15,238.3) (23.0%) | (16,647.7) (23.0%) | (17,946.2) (23.0%) | (19,085.7) (23.0%) | (20,020.8) (23.0%) | (20,711.5) (23.0%) | (21,125.8) (23.0%) |
% of revenue | (260.2) (1.2%) | (1,393.5) (5.5%) | 139.1 0.5% | 1,780.2 5.0% | 1,317.1 3.4% | 1,277.5 3.0% | 1,428.5 3.0% | 1,586.5 3.0% | 1,779.3 3.0% | 1,969.7 3.0% | 2,151.9 3.0% | 2,319.7 3.0% | 2,467.0 3.0% | 2,587.9 3.0% | 2,677.1 3.0% | 2,730.7 3.0% |
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) % of revenue | 369.0 1.7% | (5,864.3) (23.3%) | (3,960.4) (13.0%) | 3,249.6 9.2% | 5,716.0 14.9% | 1,810.4 4.2% | 2,024.5 4.2% | 2,248.4 4.2% | 2,521.6 4.2% | 2,791.4 4.2% | 3,049.6 4.2% | 3,287.4 4.2% | 3,496.2 4.2% | 3,667.5 4.2% | 3,794.0 4.2% | 3,869.9 4.2% |
% of FCFF used in calculation | 100.0% | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
Discount period | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 8.50 | |||||||
Discount factor | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | |||||||
Discounted FCFF (DFCFF) | 1,578.6 | 2,019.3 | 2,108.0 | 2,172.1 | 2,208.9 | 2,216.5 | 2,194.2 | 2,142.5 | 2,063.2 |
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ZTO DCF Value
DCF Value Calculation
as of Mar 11, 2025
Sum of DFCFF
% share of EV
18.7B
32.6%
Terminal Value (TV)
71.3B
Discounted TV
% share of EV
38.8B
67.4%
Total Debt
15.4B
61.9B
Shares outstanding
831.1M
FX rate
0.1
10.3
47.8% overvalued
Equity Value Bridge
ZTO DCF Financials
Revenue
CN¥38.4B -> CN¥90.1B
8.9% CAGR
Operating Income
CN¥10.0B -> CN¥18.5B
6.3% CAGR
FCFF
CN¥5,716.0M -> CN¥3,794.0M
(4.0%) CAGR
ZTO DCF sensitivity
DCF value
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
$12.0
$12.0
$12.0
$12.0
$12.0
6.5%
$11.0
$11.0
$11.0
$11.0
$11.0
7.4%
$9.0
$10.0
$10.0
$11.0
$11.0
7.5%
$9.0
$10.0
$10.0
$11.0
$11.0
8.0%
$9.0
$9.0
$9.0
$10.0
$10.0
DCF value, undervalued / overvalued
Long-term Terminal growth rate
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
WACC
6.0%
(39.0%)
(39.0%)
(39.0%)
(39.0%)
(39.0%)
6.5%
(44.0%)
(44.0%)
(44.0%)
(44.0%)
(44.0%)
7.4%
(54.0%)
(49.0%)
(49.0%)
(44.0%)
(44.0%)
7.5%
(54.0%)
(49.0%)
(49.0%)
(44.0%)
(44.0%)
8.0%
(54.0%)
(54.0%)
(54.0%)
(49.0%)
(49.0%)
Explore more intrinsic value tools hub for ZTO
Margin of safety
Peter Lynch charts
Ben Graham Fair Value
Earnings Power Value
Relative Value
Earnings growth model
Discount rate
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Intrinsic Value
Reverse DCF
FAQ
What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?
As of Mar 11, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $10.3. This suggests it may be overvalued by (47.8%) compared to its current price of around $19.7, using a WACC of 7.4% and growth rates of 2.0%.
What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. WACC?
As of Mar 11, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is approximately 7.4%.
What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Enterprise Value?
As of Mar 11, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s Enterprise Value (EV) is approximately CN¥57.5B. This value reflects the company's total market capitalization plus debt, minus cash and cash equivalents, providing a comprehensive measure of its overall value in the market.