Value Sense
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)
Last Price$19.7(1.7%)
Market Cap$16.3B
Intrinsic value score
7/10
Great
Intrinsic value
$18.8
DCF value - $10.3 Relative value - $27.3
Overvalued
4.5%
LTM P/E
13.8x
Peer set median 23.9x
Discount rate
7.4%
ZTO
is 4.5% overvalued
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ZTO Intrinsic value

Key Highlights:
Relative Value vs Current Share Price
As of Mar 11, 2025 ZTO Relative Value is $27.5, which is undervalued by 39.9%, compared to current share price of $19.7.
DCF Value vs Current Share Price
As of Mar 11, 2025 ZTO DCF Value is $10.4, which is overvalued by 47.2%, compared to current share price of $19.7.
Methodology
Price per share, $
ZTO
Intrinsic value$18.8
Overvalued by4.5%
Current share price
19.7
Relative value
27.5
DCF value
10.4

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ZTO Historical Intrinsic Value

Crunching data... Almost there!

ZTO vs Peer Set: Intrinsic Value Comparison

General

Intrinsic Value

Financials

Company name

Undervaluation/Overvaluation

Revenue growth

EPS growth

Net income margin

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. logo
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.ZTO
(4.5%)
3.1%
21.2%
22.8%
Median Peer Set
(1.3%)
(19.3%)
4.4%
XPO Logistics, Inc. logo
XPO Logistics, Inc.XPO
(50.3%)
4.2%
104.9%
4.8%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. logo
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.JBHT
(20.0%)
(5.8%)
(100.0%)
4.7%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. logo
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.EXPD
(15.5%)
14.0%
13.9%
7.6%
Landstar System, Inc. logo
Landstar System, Inc.LSTR
12.9%
(9.1%)
(25.1%)
4.1%
United Parcel Service, Inc. logo
United Parcel Service, Inc.UPS
19.2%
0.1%
(13.4%)
6.3%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. logo
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.CHRW
20.9%
0.7%
42.0%
2.6%
Pitney Bowes Inc. logo
Pitney Bowes Inc.PBI
53.1%
(38.0%)
(48.6%)
(10.0%)
GXO Logistics, Inc. logo
GXO Logistics, Inc.GXO
60.2%
19.7%
(42.0%)
1.1%
FedEx Corporation logo
FedEx CorporationFDX
72.7%
(2.7%)
11.7%
4.9%
Hub Group, Inc. logo
Hub Group, Inc.HUBG
75.8%
(6.1%)
(35.1%)
2.6%

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FAQ

What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. intrinsic value?

As of Mar 11, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Intrinsic Value is $18.8. This suggests it may be overvalued by 4.5% compared to its current price of around $19.7.

What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation?

As of Mar 11, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation estimates its share price at $10.4. This suggests it may be overvalued by 47.2% to its current price of around $19.7, using a discount rate of 7.4% and terminal growth rate of 2.0%.

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. overvalued or undervalued?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is currently considered overvalued based on its Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation and Relative Valuation, which estimates its share price to be $18.8, compared to a market price of around $19.7. This suggests a potential overvaluation of 4.5%.